UCF

[cincyalum2014]

Here we go with round one with UCF and Tacko Fall. I am beyond ready for this guy to graduate. UCF has won 4 of there last 5 with the only loss coming from Houston. I expect this to be a tough defensive scrappy low scoring game. We have to contain Dawkins and Taylor. I am not as much worried about Fall because he usually only plays about 20 minutes a game and he's 7'6 so if he gets the ball inside you basically just have to pray he misses. I am fully expecting to have Brooks be in foul trouble right away. I think Cane Broome will play a huge factor in this game because everyone in the country knows what Jarron can and will do and Cane has been kind of hitting his stride as of late. I think the Cats win 66-59. What are everyone's thoughts and keys to the game?

 

[Queens_NYC]

You beat me to creating this thread by about 20 minutes! Here's the preview I was going to put in the OP:

The UCF Knights (19-5, 9-3 AAC, NET #40) enter Thursday night's match-up on the verge of a potentially historic season under 3rd-year coach Johnny Dawkins. In only their 35th season as a Division 1 program, UCF could possibly earn their first NCAA tournament at-large bid (and 5th NCAA appearance overall) with hopes of also winning their first ever NCAA tournament game this season. An added bonus would be breaking the school-record of 25 wins in a season.

In order to do that, UCF will need to win add some Q1 wins to their resume, as they remain one of 3 Top 50 ranked NET teams who have yet to win a Q1 game this season (they are currently 0-2).

One thing working in the Knights' favor is their experience, as their current 9-player rotation features 3 5th-year players, 3 4th-year players, and 3 3rd-year players. They are led by senior guard, BJ Taylor, who will likely hit the 1,500 point mark for his career on Thursday, electric wing and coach's son, Aubrey Dawkins, and our favorite AAC center of all-time, Tacko Fall.

Thanks to Tacko's presence, the Knights currently boast the best team FG% during league play, the 2nd most FT attempts, and 3rd best team defense. On the other side, they are the worst FT shooting team in the league (Tacko shoots 35% on 5.5 FTA/game) and surprisingly don't rebound very well. They also don't attempt many 3s nor shoot the 3 particularly well which should work in our favor.

I predict a 70 - 61 win.

 

[Cin City]

Build a lead and keep it built. We have a penchant (in conference anyway) for either getting down early and clawing back....OR....building a nice lead then allowing a couple 7-0 - or - 11-2 - type of runs that allow said team make it interesting.

I like your prediction, I said 65-59 earlier and am sticking with it. We will need a few outside shots to go down and get out and run. Don't let Dawkins feast on the wing...guy is a nice shooter and a rhythm player.

Go Bearcats!

 

[waterhead]

I think we should probably let Nsoseme play a lot when Tacko is in early on. Brooks doesn't play much more than half the time anyway. Why let him get in foul trouble early? If he gets one foul early I would bring in Eliel for a couple of fouls maybe even 3. We can rotate those two when Tacko is off the court.

This is a well rounded team in UCF. The one time they DID beat us was when Taylor went off on us. We need to keep him in check and still keep an eye on where Dawkins is on the court.

If Tacko catches it high we probably won't be able to do much. If he catches it low we can go in for the steal or foul him.

I like our chances but they will be super hungry being on the bubble. Must bring 40 minutes of intensity and focus. It's time for a statement game from us!!

 

[waterhead]

It's going to be interesting down the stretch for UCF being on the bubble. They have by far the hardest schedule left. I think we can go ahead and lock in UC and Houston to the dance. But I am not sure who will finish better between UCF and Temple. Temple has the 3rd easiest schedule remaining. UC has the 2nd toughest but it's nothing near what UCF has.

UC has...

UCF away (toughest game remaining)

Houston home (no lock)
SMU away (without Foster and other issues with McMurray and short bench)
Uconn away (without Adams)
UCF home (should be a win)

Memphis home (should be no problem)

UCF has...

UC away (probable loss)
Houston away (probable loss)

UC home (no lock)
Temple away (no lock)
USF away (no lock)

SMU home (by far the easiest should win)

Temple has...

UCF home (pickem)
Memphis away (tough but doable)
UConn away (without Adams pickem)

Tulsa home (should be easy win)
Tulane home (easy win)


UCF could easily lose 3-4 more games. I would expect Temple to only lose 1 or 2. UC should be in the 1-2 range as well.

 

[waterhead]

FYI

Houston has...

UC away (pickem)

UCF home (next toughest at -8)
USF home
SMU home
ECU away

That should be a cake walk for them except the game at UC. 0-1 more losses

 

[cincyalum2014]

I think we should probably let Nsoseme play a lot when Tacko is in early on. Brooks doesn't play much more than half the time anyway. Why let him get in foul trouble early? If he gets one foul early I would bring in Eliel for a couple of fouls maybe even 3. We can rotate those two when Tacko is off the court.

This is a well rounded team in UCF. The one time they DID beat us was when Taylor went off on us. We need to keep him in check and still keep an eye on where Dawkins is on the court.

If Tacko catches it high we probably won't be able to do much. If he catches it low we can go in for the steal or foul him.

I like our chances but they will be super hungry being on the bubble. Must bring 40 minutes of intensity and focus. It's time for a statement game from us!!

I think Nsoseme is tougher on the boards than Brooks. I would like to see Nsoseme get more minutes than he already does. Brooks is a great shot blocker with limited offensive skills as Nsoseme is a great rebounder with limited offensive skills. I think Jarron will cancel out whatever Taylor and Dawkins get and that leaves us with Cane, Jenifer, Keith and Scott vs UCF's other 4 best players. I like our chances with that.

 

[Queens_NYC]

It's going to be interesting down the stretch for UCF being on the bubble. They have by far the hardest schedule left. I think we can go ahead and lock in UC and Houston to the dance. But I am not sure who will finish better between UCF and Temple. Temple has the 3rd easiest schedule remaining. UC has the 2nd toughest but it's nothing near what UCF has.

UC has...

UCF away (toughest game remaining)

Houston home (no lock)
SMU away (without Foster and other issues with McMurray and short bench)
Uconn away (without Adams)
UCF home (should be a win)

Memphis home (should be no problem)

UCF has...

UC away (probable loss)
Houston away (probable loss)

UC home (no lock)
Temple away (no lock)
USF away (no lock)

SMU home (by far the easiest should win)

Temple has...

UCF home (pickem)
Memphis away (tough but doable)
UConn away (without Adams pickem)

Tulsa home (should be easy win)
Tulane home (easy win)


UCF could easily lose 3-4 more games. I would expect Temple to only lose 1 or 2. UC should be in the 1-2 range as well.

UCF's best road this season is @UConn (bonus points for it being a full-strength UConn). They choked down the stretch @Wichita State and got blown out @Memphis. With road games remaining against 4 of the top 5 teams in the league, I don't think they magically improve their form, which bodes well for us tomorrow.

Best case scenario for the league is that the 3 seed in the AAC tournament comes down to the last game of the regular season when UCF visits Temple. This will mean that Temple will have won 3 of their last 4 and UCF likely has beaten SMU and @USF.

If UCF wins that game then I think they'd still have a good chance of making the NCAA tournament and keeping the AAC's hopes of 4 bids alive.

 

[waterhead]

I think Nsoseme is tougher on the boards than Brooks. I would like to see Nsoseme get more minutes than he already does. Brooks is a great shot blocker with limited offensive skills as Nsoseme is a great rebounder with limited offensive skills. I think Jarron will cancel out whatever Taylor and Dawkins get and that leaves us with Cane, Jenifer, Keith and Scott vs UCF's other 4 best players. I like our chances with that.

I would like Eliel to play more because of foul trouble in this upcoming game. But in terms of their offensive ability Brooks is at 14.3 points per 40 minutes and Eliel is at 5. So Eliel is extremely limited and Brooks is somewhat limited. In terms of rebounding Eliel pulls down about 1.5 more rebounds per 40 minutes so it's not a huge tradeoff there.

Blocks are at Brooks with 3.0 per 40 minutes and Eleil at 2.2. Brooks is by far the better option especially when you consider Brooks is at 63% from the FT line and Eliel is at 39%. But this is a game where we can probably use Eliel more than in the past.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

UCF had no answer for our defense in either game last year. Without checking the actual scores and going on memory, they scored about 40 each game. And Tacko was out one of the games (he is the reason games typically are low scoring). We struggled to score when Tacko was in the game but mostly because we insisted on working the ball into Gary and Kyle. I realize this was last year but I dont think they are much different. So our defense needs to show up. I'm calling Jenifer out here because the defense just isn't the same when he isnt leading it. He has to get out of his funk and stay on the floor and the team as a whole needs to play disciplined to the system. Jarron is smart enough to not drive into Tacko and we dont really do the inside-out thing like last year so that should nullify Tacko on defense. Keep him out of the paint on offense and he struggles to score. If Brooks cant do this, stick Nsoseme on him and bully him out of the paint. Make the guards beat you and do what Cincinnati does and dont give them easy looks. Do this and we should take care of business, especially at home where we are much more comfortable shooting and play more relaxed.

 

[TheShoeFits]

Line opened at -8.5 and has since moved to -7.5

 

[MylesFoxMorrisey]

Since this thread has some talk of remaining conference schedules, Ill put this thought here: Wichita is a scary team right now. Their schedule is VERY easy down the stretch and with way they are playing they could win out and finish 11-7 in the AAC. I would not be shocked if they somehow got a top 4 seed in the AAC tourney and could do some damage in Memphis. They've beaten Baylor, UCF, and Providence on the season, so you know they can beat people.

 

[waterhead]

Since this thread has some talk of remaining conference schedules, Ill put this thought here: Wichita is a scary team right now. Their schedule is VERY easy down the stretch and with way they are playing they could win out and finish 11-7 in the AAC. I would not be shocked if they somehow got a top 4 seed in the AAC tourney and could do some damage in Memphis. They've beaten Baylor, UCF, and Providence on the season, so you know they can beat people.

They are 4 games back of UCF and 3 games back of Temple. It would take a perfect finish along with somewhat of a disaster for one of the other two teams. That would be a Shocker!

I wouldn't say they are an easy out though no matter what seed they get. Marshall has them playing well but the 4 game win streak they had coming into UC was SMU home, Tulsa home, ECU away and Tulane home. Those are the bottom 4 teams in the conference. They played us well then they went and destroyed Tulsa on the road so who knows.

 

[cincycpaw]

We really need to win this UCF game if we want to maintain/improve our seeding the rest of the way.

With the game being at home, I think the Bearcats win by 8. Our bigs haven't finished at the basket all year, so I don't know that having Taco is a huge threat to our game. He would effect Williams and Broome driving to the basket, but I think Williams is athletic enough to still attack and be effective.

Ultimately I think we hit 3's tonight. I think Cumberland is Cumberland.

 

[cincyalum2014]

I am really excited for the game tonight, hopefully the shoe has a better atmosphere than the WSU game on Sunday which I am just chalking up to a 1pm game on a Sunday. 7pm weekday games are usually more rowdy than a Sunday day game. I am optimistic we take this game.

Cheers to a fun game tonight boys.

 

[Helicopter]

We really need to win this UCF game if we want to maintain/improve our seeding the rest of the way.

With the game being at home, I think the Bearcats win by 8. Our bigs haven't finished at the basket all year, so I don't know that having Taco is a huge threat to our game. He would effect Williams and Broome driving to the basket, but I think Williams is athletic enough to still attack and be effective.

Ultimately I think we hit 3's tonight. I think Cumberland is Cumberland.

100% Agree. This feels like a game we score 75 with most of the work coming from 3's and FT's.

 

[sedziobs]

Tacko is shooting 35% at the free throw line. If he gets the ball on the block, he should be fouled every time. I wouldn't mind Diarra getting some decent minutes to absorb fouls.

 

[Mcginnjw]

Tacko is shooting 35% at the free throw line. If he gets the ball on the block, he should be fouled every time. I wouldn't mind Diarra getting some decent minutes to absorb fouls.

So what you’re saying is he will shoot 100% tonight?

 

[sedziobs]

So what you’re saying is he will shoot 100% tonight?

Probably. I suggested fouling Durr, Yetna, and Rideau in the USF game, who all shoot below 60%. They went a combined 18 for 20 in that game.

 

[Alum2013]

Offense is really clicking.