What I am hearing: Conference Realignment

[Thegreatone]

Let me preface this post by saying I am not an insider by any means. I just do a lot of reading about conferences.

Here is the rumors:

- WVU has some people with claiming they have received an SEC Invite and it will be announced on Friday of this week. No real crediable source has jumped on the story. I would not be shocked if this was true though.

- U of L is hearing news about the Big XII. This has more legs than the WVU rumors right now. The Big XII is definitely expanding to 10 and perhaps 12. It is crucial that the Big XII goes to 12 instead of 10.

- Uconn continues to beg the ACC

- RU has nothing

- USF has been connected to Big XII but I don't buy that they would be ahead of Cincinnati in the pecking order.

- Cincinnati is going to be hoping for a Big XII invite. There has been some reports that Big XII is interested in Cincy. Mainly uncrediable media types on twitter. IF U of L gets the Big XII invite than UC will get a good look. I hope President Williams is on the phone to the schools in the Big XII

 

[JasonS]

I am not so sure WVU is assured of an SEC invite. They may get one by default. All of these schools are ahead of them at this point at least in terms of wishlist by a majority of SEC members:

Missouri
Clemson
Florida State
Virginia Tech

There may be issues with FSU because Florida will not want them. Clemson will give it a real look but I would be surprised if they left the ACC. Virginia Tech won't go. They may be pursued the hardest out of the 3 ACC schools. Missouri is a wild card. There are rumors up here in Columbus that Missouri floated the SEC rumors to try to get the Big 10 to bite and offer them a spot. I still think the SEC has some interest in Missouri but not as much as Missouri maybe has in them. Quite frankly, I don't see it as a good fit for Missouri but who knows.

As for WVU, the only thing they have to offer is a football program who just got smashed at home by LSU and a pretty good basketball program. The school and the fans are flat out awful and geographically, there isn't another school all that close except UK. I don't know that geography plays that big of a role but when you have almost nothing else going for you, I think that could be the final straw.


I am also hearing about an offer to UL from the Big 12 but I only found that in one place and am a little skeptical considering no other outlets are reporting it. I do think the Big 12 wants to get to 12 teams and I think they are trying to figure out if they need to add 3 or 4 schools. Nothing is going to happen with the Big 12 until the SEC decides on #14. Once that happens, the dominoes will begin to fall. If the SEC takes WVU, expect UC, UL and USF to push hard to get into the Big 12. I personally think UL and UC are in a better position than USF. BYU will get a good long look from the Big 12 as well. If Missouri goes to the SEC, expect UC, UL, WVU and either BYU, TCU, USF, or Boise to be schools rounding out the Big 12. This conference realignment thing is not finished yet.

 

[anbuc88]

Let me preface this post by saying I am not an insider by any means. I just do a lot of reading about conferences.

Here is the rumors:

- WVU has some people with claiming they have received an SEC Invite and it will be announced on Friday of this week. No real crediable source has jumped on the story. I would not be shocked if this was true though.

- U of L is hearing news about the Big XII. This has more legs than the WVU rumors right now. The Big XII is definitely expanding to 10 and perhaps 12. It is crucial that the Big XII goes to 12 instead of 10.

- Uconn continues to beg the ACC

- RU has nothing

- USF has been connected to Big XII but I don't buy that they would be ahead of Cincinnati in the pecking order.

- Cincinnati is going to be hoping for a Big XII invite. There has been some reports that Big XII is interested in Cincy. Mainly uncrediable media types on twitter. IF U of L gets the Big XII invite than UC will get a good look. I hope President Williams is on the phone to the schools in the Big XII

I would be shocked if this were true. If the SEC rejected them last week, why would they invite them this week. The SEC will be selective, and needs to make sure that the invited school fits in academically, as well as athletically. WVU was rejected due to their acedemic reputation. I don't think that this has improved over the past week.

 

[ralph1950]

UC and UofL are committed to the Big East. Both will reject invitations to the Big 12 if offered. UC and UofL both realize the Big East is the best league for them. NBC is forming an all sports channel and will pay the Big East plenty for rights, that is why the Big East turned down ESPN's $1.5 billion offer.

 

[ucdave]

UC and UofL are committed to the Big East. Both will reject invitations to the Big 12 if offered. UC and UofL both realize the Big East is the best league for them. NBC is forming an all sports channel and will pay the Big East plenty for rights, that is why the Big East turned down ESPN's $1.5 billion offer.

Funny you say that. I actually read somewhere (don't know how true it is), that Pittsburgh led the charge in turning this down and then bolts for the ACC.

Ralph - time will tell on your prediction. But I think both UC & UL are both gone if offered by the Big 12. The Big East is too unstable. WVU will surely leave in a heartbeat as will UCONN and Rutgers. If they reject the offers, both Presidents should be fired immediately if not sooner. I believe you need at least 6 schools that have been in conference together for 5 years to maintain BCS status. The BE is at 6 now, losing any one I think BCS is toast.

 

[BigBiscuit34]

By Edward Aschoff -- ESPN COLLEGE FOOTBALL BLOGGER.....

Now that the SEC has its 13th member in Texas A&M, it’s time to search for the 14th team.

Or is it?

The SEC announced Sunday that Texas A&M will officially begin athletic competition in the 2012-13 season. That means the Aggies will be coming to an SEC city near you very soon.

But 13 is an odd number. Worse, it’s a prime number. So SEC commissioner Mike Slive must be reaching out to a handful of schools, gauging their obvious interest in such a successful conference, right?

Well, as of Monday that wasn’t necessarily the case. During Texas A&M’s official introduction into the conference in College Station, Texas, Slive said that he is in no hurry to add a 14th member to the conference and has a plan in place to play the 2012 football season with just 13 teams.

“We anticipate being a 13-team league,” Slive said Monday.

While it might seem odd (and prime) Slive said he’s fine with an unlucky number of SEC teams.

“We have not been necessarily looking to expand,” Slive said. “At some point in time that may come to pass. But this isn’t something that we feel we have to do right away. Clearly, scheduling with 13 is not easy, and we’ll work through that. But we will remain very thoughtful and very strategic about what we do in terms of further expansion.”

As for future schedules, Slive said the SEC has put together a transition team to begin working on them. Sixteen members of his staff went to College Station to begin scheduling conversations.

“The goal will be for the transition team to develop a series of options, and when these options are developed, we will take the options to our athletic directors for their consideration,” Slive said. “Once we have schedules worked out, we’ll be in a position to announce them.”

The SEC also isn’t worried about financial security with the addition of a new team. Slive said in the TV contracts with the SEC, there are agreements in place that deal with the conference’s makeup, in case the league adds or loses a school. There are also negations in place dealing with “look ins.” Look ins are used in order to help the conference adapt during its 15-year agreements when things change, like the landscape of the league and college football.

Basically, the conference is going to see to it that schools aren’t getting shorted revenue because of a new mouth to feed.

“So with the provision for a look in, we will sit down and make sure that at the end of the day, given the composition of our league, that we have exactly what we bargained for when we started.”

 

[UCBearcats]

Big 12

UC will wind up in the Big 12. I'm thinking that WVU, UL, UC and TCU will get invites to the B12. They will also most likely reach out to BYU for an invite as well. TA&M and Mizzou will leave the league.

I'm not sure why everyone is so worried about us being left out. If this is really all about money, and the money comes from negotiating TV contracts, then I think UC is in a great position to be an attractive candidate.

I've read on other sites that we can't afford to pay a 5 mil buyout or we don't have this or that. It's all BS. The ONLY thing that matters to the conferences as a whole is how much they can sell their TV contract for. No one cares if we seat 34k or 65k inside our stadium. The conference isn't going to make money if we sell tickets to our games. They're going to make money when they negotiate a TV contract that includes the Southern Ohio media market.

People need to quit the doom and gloom talk. UC is an attractive partner in any of the soon to be mega-conferences.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

UC will wind up in the Big 12. I'm thinking that WVU, UL, UC and TCU will get invites to the B12. They will also most likely reach out to BYU for an invite as well. TA&M and Mizzou will leave the league.

I'm not sure why everyone is so worried about us being left out. If this is really all about money, and the money comes from negotiating TV contracts, then I think UC is in a great position to be an attractive candidate.

I've read on other sites that we can't afford to pay a 5 mil buyout or we don't have this or that. It's all BS. The ONLY thing that matters to the conferences as a whole is how much they can sell their TV contract for. No one cares if we seat 34k or 65k inside our stadium. The conference isn't going to make money if we sell tickets to our games. They're going to make money when they negotiate a TV contract that includes the Southern Ohio media market. People need to quit the doom and gloom talk. UC is an attractive partner in any of the soon to be mega-conferences.

I hate to say it, but there is a truth to that this day and age. Ticket sales make up a smaller and smaller percentage of overall revenue as time goes on. And true the conference doesn't really get much out of whether or not we sell our games out, that only hurts our budget. The argument could be made that not being a big ticket draw means we're less attractive to coaches and recruits and that makes us a less successful program. It would be interesting to see how well our market gets in TV ratings for UC games and for other college football games.

 

[UCBearcats]

If the conferences cared about how prestigous the athletic programs were or how many people could fit inside a football stadium WVU would already be in the SEC. The SEC doesn't want WVU because their media market isn't worth squat. Most areas of the state don't even have HD-TV. On the flip side WVU is attractive to the Big12 because they would become one of the anchors of a newly formed Eastern division within the league.

The Big12 HAS to get back to a minimum of 12 schools in order to have a championship game, which is also a huge source of income for the conference itself.

 

[DontMissHim]

The interesting part about BYU is they don't play any sports on Sunday (obviously). While it wouldn't affect them for football- Big 12 has a lot of sports on Sundays (for example- Baseball series are Friday, Sat, Sunday- and many other sports have games on Friday night and then Sunday).

If a conference takes a look at BYU- they will have to be willing to work around BYU's Sunday issue.

 

[DontMissHim]

UC and UofL are committed to the Big East. Both will reject invitations to the Big 12 if offered. UC and UofL both realize the Big East is the best league for them. NBC is forming an all sports channel and will pay the Big East plenty for rights, that is why the Big East turned down ESPN's $1.5 billion offer.

I wonder if NBC will still pay for the rights if the league has more major split ups, though. If UC is offered to join the Big 12- it would be tough to turn down, IMO, considering the apparent uncertainty of the Big East.

 

[ralph1950]

If the conferences cared about how prestigous the athletic programs were or how many people could fit inside a football stadium WVU would already be in the SEC. The SEC doesn't want WVU because their media market isn't worth squat. Most areas of the state don't even have HD-TV. On the flip side WVU is attractive to the Big12 because they would become one of the anchors of a newly formed Eastern division within the league.

The Big12 HAS to get back to a minimum of 12 schools in order to have a championship game, which is also a huge source of income for the conference itself.

The Big 12 will add one more team, and no more than one, most probably BYU, there will not be a Big 12 Big East merger, such suggestion if poppycock.

The Big 12 TV contact is set, they are going to receive $1.5 billion. $1.5 billion split 10 ways is $150 million per school. Split 12 ways that is $125 million per school. Why would the current members of the Big 12 give up $25 million each to add 2 schools? They will not. Will ESPN be willing to pay the Big 12 an additional $300 million if they go from 10 to 12 schools? What do you think?

 

[JasonS]

The Big 12 will add one more team, and no more than one, most probably BYU, there will not be a Big 12 Big East merger, such suggestion if poppycock.

The Big 12 TV contact is set, they are going to receive $1.5 billion. $1.5 billion split 10 ways is $150 million per school. Split 12 ways that is $125 million per school. Why would the current members of the Big 12 give up $25 million each to add 2 schools? They will not. Will ESPN be willing to pay the Big 12 an additional $300 million if they go from 10 to 12 schools? What do you think?

No one said they have to add schools tomorrow. Their contract doesn't last forever and if you think they will stay at 10 and forego a title game for more than a couple years, you are crazy. They will expand to 12 in time for their next contract negotiation.

 

[BrahmaBulls]

I believe most TV contracts can be renegotiated if there is a change in conference numbers. If they go to 12 then the overall revenue would most likely go up.

 

[JasonS]

I believe most TV contracts can be renegotiated if there is a change in conference numbers. If they go to 12 then the overall revenue would most likely go up.

It obviously depends on the contract and the foresight of the people involved when the contract was negotiated. I would assume that any contract now would have that provision in it.

 

[DontMissHim]

It obviously depends on the contract and the foresight of the people involved when the contract was negotiated. I would assume that any contract now would have that provision in it.

Absolutely. Even Ralph should understand that.

 

[JasonS]

@ChuckCarltonDMN
A source on the idea of TCU, Louisville, Cincinnati, W. Va to the Big 12: "It's one of the leading options." Big 12 waiting on Missouri.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

@GoMickGo
Mick Cronin has unanimously been named commish of the big east #bigeastsaved #raplhoncloudnine

and the plot thickens....

 

[JasonS]

Here is an interesting perspective. Not fact just somebody's idea:

From Big 12 to Sweet 16? Pod Squad?
9/29/2011 3:34:12 PM

Online reports have surfaced today placing BYU, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville and TCU in the Big 12. Like it's a done deal.

OK, then. The Big 14 it is.

Not buying it. Not quite selling it yet, because there are obvious things this league can’t agree on. Forget consensus, they can’t even come up with a “plurality,” interim commissioner Chuck Neinas says.

But I do think the Big 12 won’t cast such a wide net whenever it does expand.

Still, let’s have some fun.

If the Big 12 welcomed all the schools I mentioned, what would those divisions look like?

Start with the obvious.

Keep Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech and Baylor together. Keep West Virginia, Cincinnati and Louisville together.

Keep Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Missouri together.

Goegraphically, TCU fits in Texas. Duh. But the Longhorns, already reluctant to let in the Horned Frogs in the first place, probably would bristle big-time at having TCU in the same division.

Let’s do this the easy way. The South is well stocked. But sticking TCU in the North is ridiculous. Too bad, Texas. You can’t have everything.

So that’s six in the South.

And if there’s a South, then there has to be a North.

KU, KSU, ISU, Mizzou, West Virginia, Cincinnati and Louisville make up the North.

BYU, then, becomes the South’s seventh team.

Geographically, it works. Sort of. All the states, except Utah, are somehow bordering another. (That gap out west could be fixed by bringing in Air Force instead of TCU — which, hey, might make Bevo happy after all.)

Could even call it an East-West instead of North-South. Or get creative (stupid, some might say) and come up with something unique and confusing — like Legends and Leaders, for instance. Oh, never mind. Seems that bit of brilliance has been taken.

Theologically speaking, do BYU, TCU and Baylor all fit in the same division? I’d have to ask our religion writer on that one.

Or how about this: the Big 12 brings in Air Force and TCU . . . and Houston! It’s the Big 16! And they play Pods, or Quads, or Four-Square, or whatever! Beat those other fink conference commissioners to the punch! (That’s what some Big 12 presidents call them, anyway.)

So while we’re riffing (that means I’m not really thinking this through; I’m just going off the tips of my fingers, so save the angry letters and phone calls), here’s mine:

East Pod: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville, Iowa State.

West Pod: BYU, Air Force, Texas Tech, TCU.

Central Pod: OSU, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri.

South Pod: Oklahoma, Texas, Houston, Baylor.

Give one school a permanent rival from another pod to create/preserve rivalries. OU-OSU, Texas-Texas Tech, Baylor-TCU, for example (some would seem like a stretch at first, but we’d get used to it), and play teams from the other pods either for two successive years or on a three-year rotating basis (say, OU at Kansas in 2012, then the Jayhawks come to Norman in 2015). OU-West Virginia or Texas-BYU every year could be pretty fun.

Not ideal, I know. But neither is clinging to each other like flotsam while sharks from other conferences pick off your buddies one at a time until the whole group sinks.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/blogs/sportspost.aspx?From_Big_12_to_Sweet_16_Pod_Squad_/12-12728

 

[JasonS]

This is ultimately from Bearcatlair so take it with a grain of salt since they are trying to sell memberships but I think there is something to this.


BearcatLair.com reports “there are still a lot of details to be worked out as it relates to divisional breakouts, when new league would start play, etc.,” but the Big 12 appears to be moving toward 14 teams. The report says BYU, TCU, Louisville, Cincinnati and West Virginia would join current Big 12 members.

http://www.footballrumormill.com/20...ille-cincinnati-west-virginia-to-join-big-12/