Computer Numbers/Bracketology Thread

BearcatTalk

Help Support BearcatTalk:

Bearcat_NTS said:
The conference tournament begins one month from this Thursday. I will be posting KenPom, RPI, Sagarin, AP/Coaches Poll, Bracket Projections from now on.

As of 2/8/15
Live-RPI: 28 (OOC SOS 16; Overall SOS 48)
KenPom: 33
-Adj Offense Efficiency: 105.4 (93rd)
-Adj Defense Efficiency: 91.5 (18th)
Sagarin: 46
ESPN BPI: 44
AP/Coaches Poll: N/A
Bracket Projection: 8 seed (29 overall)
Click to expand...


Thanks NTS. I really appreciate the info and the time you took to provide it for us.

The Bracket Matrix may be skewed a bit though. I believe they have something like 83 bracket predictions on their site with only 15 of them being updated today (2/8)

Several of their brackets haven't been updated since 2/2.

Of the 15 brackets that were updated today, three predicted UC as high as a 5 seed with an average seed of 7.13.
 
Last edited:
TheShoeFits said:
[/B]

Thanks NTS. I really appreciate the info and the time you took to provide it for us.

The Bracket Matrix may be skewed a bit though. I believe they have something like 83 bracket predictions on their site with only 15 of them being updated today (2/8)

Several of their brackets haven't been updated since 2/2.

Of the 15 brackets that were updated today, three predicted UC as high as a 5 seed with an average seed of 7.13.
Click to expand...

Also some brackets are projections as of today and others are where they project the team to be by selection Sunday. It isn't the most accurate daily projection, but that site is the best aggregator of popular ones.
 
Bearcat_NTS said:
The conference tournament begins one month from this Thursday. I will be posting KenPom, RPI, Sagarin, AP/Coaches Poll, Bracket Projections from now on.

As of 2/8/15
Live-RPI: 28 (OOC SOS 16; Overall SOS 48)
KenPom: 33
-Adj Offense Efficiency: 105.4 (93rd)
-Adj Defense Efficiency: 91.5 (18th)
Sagarin: 46
ESPN BPI: 44
AP/Coaches Poll: N/A
Bracket Projection: 8 seed (29 overall)
Click to expand...

Great thread. This is about the time of year I start putting more stock in this stuff.
 
I see UC's ceiling being a 6 seed on the high seed and maybe falling all the way to a 12.

One way or another I hope they get off the 8-9 line that everyone has them penciled in at. UC can play with most teams on a given night, but I'd feel much better going up against a 2 seed than any 1 seed.
 
Bearcatmatt said:
I see UC's ceiling being a 6 seed on the high seed and maybe falling all the way to a 12.

One way or another I hope they get off the 8-9 line that everyone has them penciled in at. UC can play with most teams on a given night, but I'd feel much better going up against a 2 seed than any 1 seed.
Click to expand...

With that stupid loss to ecu I agree about six being the high side. Although if we take only one more loss and win the conference tourney I could see a four or five seed. We need to beat x no matter what, the stupid big East rpi numbers are high. Georgetown lost to Villanova the other day and got a boost in their rpi.
 
Georgetown is always overrated. They are a media darling and nearly always underachieve. Just throwing that out there.

I think UC has an outside shot at a five of they win the league and make the conference tournament final
 
Bearcat_NTS said:
The conference tournament begins one month from this Thursday. I will be posting KenPom, RPI, Sagarin, AP/Coaches Poll, Bracket Projections from now on.

As of 2/8/15
Live-RPI: 28 (OOC SOS 16; Overall SOS 48)
KenPom: 33
-Adj Offense Efficiency: 105.4 (93rd)
-Adj Defense Efficiency: 91.5 (18th)
Sagarin: 46
ESPN BPI: 44
AP/Coaches Poll: N/A
Bracket Projection: 8 seed (29 overall)
Click to expand...

Just out of curiosity I looked at the Cat's Kenpom numbers from the last couple of seasons to see how the compare to this season. The 2014 and 2013 is end of the year data.

2014 (first season AAC)
Adj O - 107.8 (110)
Adj D - 91.2 (8)

2013 (last Big East season)
Adj O - 103.2 (126)
Adj D - 90.1 (14)

It's pretty impressive how consistent the defense has been considering all the new players and current players with expanded roles from previous years. An uptick in offense from last year is nice too.
 
Last edited:
bearcat jeff said:
Georgetown is always overrated. They are a media darling and nearly always underachieve. Just throwing that out there.

I think UC has an outside shot at a five of they win the league and make the conference tournament final
Click to expand...

I tend to feel this way about the Big East in general (maybe it's just sour grapes from the Cats not being in it anymore). They look good in kenpom, rpi, and other metrics, but outside of Nova, they all seem like a lot of average to good teams - none particularly scary.
 
Bearcat22 said:
I tend to feel this way about the Big East in general (maybe it's just sour grapes from the Cats not being in it anymore). They look good in kenpom, rpi, and other metrics, but outside of Nova, they all seem like a lot of average to good teams - none particularly scary.
Click to expand...

I hate to say this but if X ever gets consistent on defense they have a chance to be very good. They have a couple seniors, experienced point guard, good low post and rebounding and a couple shooters. I'm glad the game is at 5/3rd this season.
 
bearcat jeff said:
I hate to say this but if X ever gets consistent on defense they have a chance to be very good. They have a couple seniors, experienced point guard, good low post and rebounding and a couple shooters. I'm glad the game is at 5/3rd this season.
Click to expand...

That's fair. If Stainbrook is effective and can pass out of double teams and X hits 3's at a good clip it will be a tough game. Their 3 point D isn't so good, would be a great chance for Caupain, Cobb, Sanders, or KJ to exploit some open looks.
 
Cincinnati received 21 votes in the AP Poll, good for #30. If Cincinnati sweeps this week, they will most likely be ranked.

EDIT: Cincinnati received 18 votes in the Coaches Poll, ranked #28.
 
Last edited:
Bearcat22 said:
I tend to feel this way about the Big East in general (maybe it's just sour grapes from the Cats not being in it anymore). They look good in kenpom, rpi, and other metrics, but outside of Nova, they all seem like a lot of average to good teams - none particularly scary.
Click to expand...

The league gets love because it doesn't have any awful teams. I could see a bunch of busts out for them early in the tournament again.
 

Similar threads

B
Computer Numbers/Bracketology Thread
8 9 10
Replies
192
Views
59K
Bearcat_NTS
B
Back
Top