2016-2017 Season

[GarradJ21]

I know I know. I want the one seed. Trust me. Too stupid of reasons why I said the other statement.

 

[GarradJ21]

All those people who think point spreads matter should mostly believe we will get beaten by SMU on Sunday. We would be a straight underdog on a neutral court let alone on theirs.

So I'm going to stay that game is a loss, we just need to win out and hope they slip up to someone else.

How would we be an underdog on a neutral floor?

 

[waterhead]

Lol I really don't think you're grasping what the point is on point spreads. Handicapping a game is basically power ranking the teams. In the context I'm using, it's implying a margin for error. That's all.

You should not have to explain that...

 

[justinhub2003]

How would we be an underdog on a neutral floor?

According to kenpom. They are 16th, we are 20th..

We would be underdog by his projections.

We are a 4 point underdog @SMU

Would either be even or 1 point underdog on neutral

 

[justinhub2003]

Lol I really don't think you're grasping what the point is on point spreads. Handicapping a game is basically power ranking the teams. In the context I'm using, it's implying a margin for error. That's all.

I'm just messing again. Just thought it was kinda funny everyone was so confident bc we were the 10 point favorite and how it was going to affect the game. I

But you believe we're gonna lose though ?

 

[waterhead]

I'm just messing again. Just thought it was kinda funny everyone was so confident bc we were the 10 point favorite and how it was going to affect the game. I

But you believe we're gonna lose though ?

It's interesting because some teams have more of a home court advantage than others do for whatever the reason. Playing at Moody is extremely tough and their rank nationally from one source I found was 32nd good for 6 points advantage. UC was ranked in the 200's at 3 point advantage in this 2012 article. Again, this was from 2012...but Moody didn't change much (may have gotten tougher since then). Our home court advantage has probably changed quite a bit since then too.

This means if we are even on a neutral court I (not Vegas) would put us as 6 point dogs at Moody which is significant. I am not predicting a loss but we will have to play extremely well. We have done it there before. We have a special team...but obviously they do too.

 

[waterhead]

It's interesting because some teams have more of a home court advantage than others do for whatever the reason. Playing at Moody is extremely tough and their rank nationally from one source I found was 32nd good for 6 points advantage. UC was ranked in the 200's at 3 point advantage in this 2012 article. Again, this was from 2012...but Moody didn't change much (may have gotten tougher since then). Our home court advantage has probably changed quite a bit since then too.

This means if we are even on a neutral court I (not Vegas) would put us as 6 point dogs at Moody which is significant. I am not predicting a loss but we will have to play extremely well. We have done it there before. We have a special team...but obviously they do too.

Interesting enough Tulsa was ranked higher than SMU for home court advantage in 2012. I wish I had more up to date data...but I'm lazy and picked the first article I could find. I should mention the data was from 2000-2012.

http://predictionmachine.com/college-basketball-homecourt-advantage

 

[waterhead]

We have enough talent this year to win when some of our players are flat. Washington, Clark, and Cumberland have been doing some heavy lifting lately. Not sure what is going on with Evans but he has a tendency to be indecisive with the basketball. He dribbles around too much trying to get a little too cute. Contrast Evans with Cumberland who is VERY decisive...he's either letting one fly from deep or making one or two dribbles and heading to the bucket. Evans needs to just decide if he's going to shoot or drive and stop dilly dallying with the ball (ala Thomas). Once he simplifies his game...he will take off again.

KJ has been having a rough go lately. Last 4 games he's shooting about 25% from 2 and 3. Averaging about 5 points. Cumberland on the other hand is knocking down 60% from 2 and around 50% from 3 averaging 15 over the same stretch.

We have 3 players kicking it into gear and 3 who need to get it going if we want to continue our run. Troy has been a little off lately too...he has averaged around 2 rebounds his last 5 games but the previous 7 games he averaged around 7.

If we can put it all together we are a top 10 team...but we need to get Evans and Troy operating on all cylinders again to be a great team in March.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

We have enough talent this year to win when some of our players are flat. Washington, Clark, and Cumberland have been doing some heavy lifting lately. Not sure what is going on with Evans but he has a tendency to be indecisive with the basketball. He dribbles around too much trying to get a little too cute. Contrast Evans with Cumberland who is VERY decisive...he's either letting one fly from deep or making one or two dribbles and heading to the bucket. Evans needs to just decide if he's going to shoot or drive and stop dilly dallying with the ball (ala Thomas). Once he simplifies his game...he will take off again.

KJ has been having a rough go lately. Last 4 games he's shooting about 25% from 2 and 3. Averaging about 5 points. Cumberland on the other hand is knocking down 60% from 2 and around 50% from 3 averaging 15 over the same stretch.

We have 3 players kicking it into gear and 3 who need to get it going if we want to continue our run. Troy has been a little off lately too...he has averaged around 2 rebounds his last 5 games but the previous 7 games he averaged around 7.

If we can put it all together we are a top 10 team...but we need to get Evans and Troy operating on all cylinders again to be a great team in March.

Agreed on Evans. The 8-15 foot pull up is a good thing. I feel like it has taken Caupain and Johnson time to really learn that too. Driving doesn't mean you'll get a layup or foul every time.

 

[justinhub2003]

I actually think Cumberland still sometimes passes up wide open shots. And instead drives and then kicks. He needs to take that first wide open shot but I think he is mildly reluctant to shoot "too much" as a freshman. Mick has talked about the basketball gods punishing him sometimes for not taking the open look.

He really showed out for Xavier and I'd love to see him have his first great road performance of his career @SMU. If he shows up, and Evans shows up, we can win but if Evans stays quiet, Cumberland is non existent on the road and we're left with relying on the bigs only, it could get ugly. Need to hit 3's to keep them from clogging the lane like they like too.

 

[waterhead]

I actually think Cumberland still sometimes passes up wide open shots. And instead drives and then kicks. He needs to take that first wide open shot but I think he is mildly reluctant to shoot "too much" as a freshman. Mick has talked about the basketball gods punishing him sometimes for not taking the open look.

He really showed out for Xavier and I'd love to see him have his first great road performance of his career @SMU. If he shows up, and Evans shows up, we can win but if Evans stays quiet, Cumberland is non existent on the road and we're left with relying on the bigs only, it could get ugly. Need to hit 3's to keep them from clogging the lane like they like too.

We will certainly need at least one or the other to show up between Evans and Cumberland against SMU.

I think we pass up a lot of open looks from 3 early in the clock because we are focused on getting the ball to Gary or Kyle which I would agree with for the most part. More than likely if they get doubled we will get another good look. However, I would rather not pass up shots that we can shoot in good rhythm that are wide open just to try to get it to the block.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

We will certainly need at least one or the other to show up between Evans and Cumberland against SMU.

I think we pass up a lot of open looks from 3 early in the clock because we are focused on getting the ball to Gary or Kyle which I would agree with for the most part. More than likely if they get doubled we will get another good look. However, I would rather not pass up shots that we can shoot in good rhythm that are wide open just to try to get it to the block.

Making them guard the post will get us those good looks. Without throwing the ball inside they can push their defense out to the 3 point line easily. We need to look inside first. sometimes you have to rotate the ball more then once to find the post player. I am not in favor of passing up good looks but I don't want to go away from our strength. Knowing what and when is a good shot is critical in every game.

 

[REB4cats]

Just got a pretty good laugh looking back at some of the preseason record predictions 22-9, 24-7, 13-5 in conference. I am glad you guys were WAY wrong

 

[#BearcatNation]

Just got a pretty good laugh looking back at some of the preseason record predictions 22-9, 24-7, 13-5 in conference. I am glad you guys were WAY wrong

Can you blame us? Looking at the last couple seasons, I thought those were fair predictions. I had 24-7.

 

[GarradJ21]

I had 26-5..I felt like last year was going to be good too. I feel like the ball just truly didn't bounce our way last year, but this team is a lot better anyways. Mostly due to KW. It just shows you too that a win is a win no matter what and we need to move on. I remember after the performance of our exhibition game people blew up and acted like we are in for a bad season. Just have to take it game by game and no matter what, pretty or ugly just win.

 

[GarradJ21]

What's great too is our two losses weren't bad. I mean I would love to play any of those 2 teams again, they do not scare me nor does any team because we have some serious talent and experience. I cant wait until Sunday!

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Just got a pretty good laugh looking back at some of the preseason record predictions 22-9, 24-7, 13-5 in conference. I am glad you guys were WAY wrong

I did the same thing. it was hilarious.

 

[waterhead]

The difference between this year and last is having the determination to come back and win games where you are down in the second half...and having the fire power to do it. Games like Temple and Xavier. We didn't have the fire power last year. Add in the luck factor beating teams like ISU, Marshall, SMU and Tulsa in games decided by a single shot...karma is getting back to us.

We would have lost at least 4 out of 6 of those last year and that is the difference between ending up with 7-9 losses and ending up 5 games better than that.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

The difference between this year and last is having the determination to come back and win games where you are down in the second half...and having the fire power to do it. Games like Temple and Xavier. We didn't have the fire power last year. Add in the luck factor beating teams like ISU, Marshall, SMU and Tulsa in games decided by a single shot...karma is getting back to us.

We would have lost at least 4 out of 6 of those last year and that is the difference between ending up with 7-9 losses and ending up 5 games better than that.

This team does seem to have a better handle on the mental part of the game. But lets not discount talent and experience as key contributors.

Our freshman have played better then many expected.

JJ has been light years better

Washington has been as advertised

And the other returnees have played to their level or better. While we havn't shot the ball as well in some cases we have improved in other areas that have made up for our shooting woes which has made us a better team. We also have avoided the injury bug for the most part. ( knock on Wood )

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I did the same thing. it was hilarious.

I may have been the 22-9...I can still be right though!