2023-24 roster

[sedziobs]

MAW shot 36.6% this year, getting to 40% on good shots next year is not impossible. I agree we need more creation, but we also need floor spreaders.

We can also add creation in a variety of ways. For example, perhaps we add a quality center and between him and Vik, we can pound it inside, but prevent the opposing defense from sagging off because we have knock down shooters.

I think a floor general is fine as long as we add/develop guys who can create off the dribble. If two/three other guys leave (Davenport, Nolley and/or Hensley as I predict), we can add that without MAW leaving.

I think finding a big that can create and rebound will be a bigger challenge than a creator at PG. There's very few of those. IMO, it will be easier to find a big who can just finish and rebound, and a PG who can create. With a Wes offense, we're going to rely on iso creation, so we need it from somewhere. I'm not counting on Skillings or Nolley. Maybe we can find a really good wing instead.

 

[TheLongHaul]

The best thing Wes had going for him as a coach I believe was the hockey AAU type substitutions. He wasn't at all in rebuild mode as he thought the older than dirt team was good enough make tournament. Telling 10-12 guys they all could play 15-20min game is intriguing to recruits. Don't nobody want to sit on bench. Reed isn't better than JD so I don't understand his role going forward. The team was clearly better when Skillings was on court over MAW. I do also believe we make tournament with healthy Phil and Newman.

Agree with the latter parts. Not sure what Reed brings to the table. He's only a freshman so maybe he hasn't shown it yet but I don't seen anything that sticks out about him.

Phil and Newman won't add much at all next year. Neither are very good to begin with before factoring in they've missed the past year.

Need much better players or next season will be brutal. I expect Skillings to be much better.

 

[skyblade]

Agree with the latter parts. Not sure what Reed brings to the table. He's only a freshman so maybe he hasn't shown it yet but I don't seen anything that sticks out about him.

Phil and Newman won't add much at all next year. Neither are very good to begin with before factoring in they've missed the past year.

Need much better players or next season will be brutal. I expect Skillings to be much better.

Reed can be much better than Davenport. He brings better rebounding and defense, especially once he bulks up. His three point shooting/form needs some work though.

Newman started 40 games for Clemson in the AAC, is an excellent defender and reasonably capable on offense, plus will have had over a year to develop since we last saw him (though it's hard to say how much he could have gotten in with injuries). If you think he's not good enough you are just getting into the realm of ridiculousness. Next you'll be joining the crazies who want to force Vik out too.

 

[sedziobs]

Day Day Thomas's Juco season came to an end last week when his team got destroyed 72-44 in the district tournament. He put up 20 pts on 14 shots with 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, and 1 turnover. For the season he averaged 19 pts, 6 reb, 3.1 ast, 2.2 turnovers, 1.3 steals. Thomas shot 47% inside the arc, 33% from three, and 84% from the line with a 34% free throw rate. He had a couple 30 pt games and three 10 rebound games.

He went through an ice cold 1-20 three point shooting stretch in the middle of the season. Aside from that he shot 39%, same as last year.

His stats paint the picture of a slashing guard who can rebound. His free throw rate is much higher than any of our guards and comparable to Ody. I don't know how much his game will translate to a higher level, but he's a completely different type of guard than we what we have on our current roster.

I was curious to see how the Juco guys we targeted a couple years ago are doing, and it's not very inspiring. Langston Wilson was the prize of that class, and he's barely seen the court in 2 years at Washington. His offensive and rebounding stats are actually good in limited minutes, but his really high foul rate tells me the game is too fast or physical for him and his defense is probably bad.

Dalen Ridgnal struggled in about 10 minutes per game at Georgia in his first year, and then transferred to Missouri State where he is thriving in a reserve role. He's an efficient low usage scorer and rebounder playing 17 minutes per game in the MVC.

The top two players from last year's class both went to Missouri and are averaging 23 and 8 minutes with middling stats.

Expecting Day Day to be an impact player is optimistic. And I'd expect Jizzle to be a 10-15 minute player like most 4 star freshmen, likely with turnover and defense struggles. So my assumption is we get 15-20 minutes out of those guys, leaving 20-25 for MAW and/or a transfer guard.

 

[skyblade]

I was curious to see how the Juco guys we targeted a couple years ago are doing, and it's not very inspiring. Langston Wilson was the prize of that class, and he's barely seen the court in 2 years at Washington. His offensive and rebounding stats are actually good in limited minutes, but his really high foul rate tells me the game is too fast or physical for him and his defense is probably bad.

Dalen Ridgnal struggled in about 10 minutes per game at Georgia in his first year, and then transferred to Missouri State where he is thriving in a reserve role. He's an efficient low usage scorer and rebounder playing 17 minutes per game in the MVC.

The top two players from last year's class both went to Missouri and are averaging 23 and 8 minutes with middling stats.

Expecting Day Day to be an impact player is optimistic. And I'd expect Jizzle to be a 10-15 minute player like most 4 star freshmen, likely with turnover and defense struggles. So my assumption is we get 15-20 minutes out of those guys, leaving 20-25 for MAW and/or a transfer guard.

Great info, I was assuming Day Day was basically a coin flip if he'd transition quickly enough to play big minutes this year, but it sounds like the odds are really quite a bit lower than that.

There are definitely plenty of minutes left over at PG/SG if we pencil in Day Day and Jizzle for 20 minutes combined. Skillings I'd say will be a 20-25 minute guy (and may get some of those at the 3). You think Newman will play SG, I don't. If he does he takes care of 20 more minutes, leaving 20 for MAW/another PG.

If Newman is our starting 3 (Nolley leaves) or doesn't play SG, there's in theory room to keep MAW, add another guard and let them compete for minutes - which does seem to be Wes's way. On the other hand it's harder to convince a top transfer guard to come in if he has to compete with a 5th year guard for minutes. If MAW leaves, there is a huge void at PG and we could try to entice a top transfer with 30+ minutes and be one of the main guys.

 

[skyblade]

By the way, Nolley is likely to be a difficult case.

Let's assume that Nolley decides to test the NBA waters (seems very likely). That puts Wes into a huge bind. Nolley would potentially be an unknown until June, when the transfer portal would be almost empty.

Does Wes hold the spot open hoping for Nolley to return, but risk being unable to fill it with a quality player if Nolley goes pro? Does he fill it with a transfer and tell Nolley "sorry, there's no spot here for you" if he wants to return? Or does he fill it, then force somebody else out to make room for Nolley if needed?

With how Wes is about building trust and doing the right thing for his guys, it's hard to see the third scenario happening. Recall that Keith Williams was told "sorry, we don't have a spot for you" in Wes's year one.

My guess is if we get a quality transfer ready to commit and fill the last spot, Wes will tell Nolley "look, you have to commit to coming back now or we won't have a spot for you".

Edit to add: I believe he'd have the option to grad transfer and not sit a year as well. So he could decide to come back to college after testing the NBA waters, have some other school offer him a boatload of NIL money and not return here.

 

[TheLongHaul]

Reed can be much better than Davenport. He brings better rebounding and defense, especially once he bulks up. His three point shooting/form needs some work though.

Newman started 40 games for Clemson in the AAC, is an excellent defender and reasonably capable on offense, plus will have had over a year to develop since we last saw him (though it's hard to say how much he could have gotten in with injuries). If you think he's not good enough you are just getting into the realm of ridiculousness. Next you'll be joining the crazies who want to force Vik out too.

Having Davenport as your bar isn't great. He was possibly one of the worst defenders to wear a bearcat uniform in the past 25 years. If the best Reed can do is be better at rebounding and defense than Davenport than he probably shouldn't be on a B12 team....his shooting form is bad, he isn't quick or athletic, and isn't very tall. Hope I'm wrong about all this.

Newman had one good season on a mediocre Clemson team. He's a good defender, not great, and is hurt a lot. He's really only played 2 seasons over his 5 year career. He was average his first year here, expecting him to be better after sitting out a year with injury is very optimistic. He is a decent player off the bench because he won't hurt you too much, but he isn't also going to do much for you.

I like Vik a lot. Also like Skillings a lot. The others don't do much for me, especially going into the B12.

 

[skyblade]

Having Davenport as your bar isn't great. He was possibly one of the worst defenders to wear a bearcat uniform in the past 25 years. If the best Reed can do is be better at rebounding and defense than Davenport than he probably shouldn't be on a B12 team....his shooting form is bad, he isn't quick or athletic, and isn't very tall. Hope I'm wrong about all this.

Newman had one good season on a mediocre Clemson team. He's a good defender, not great, and is hurt a lot. He's really only played 2 seasons over his 5 year career. He was average his first year here, expecting him to be better after sitting out a year with injury is very optimistic. He is a decent player off the bench because he won't hurt you too much, but he isn't also going to do much for you.

I like Vik a lot. Also like Skillings a lot. The others don't do much for me, especially going into the B12.

Okay, you want another bar? How about Jarron Cumberland, he wasn't quick or athletic either.

Reed is 6'7" and put up good rebounding numbers. We barely saw him play, so it's hard to judge much more. He is a bit of a tweener, he either needs to be quick enough to defend the 3, or bulk up enough to defend/rebound as an undersized 4.

We may also be able to hide him on defense in the coming years if needed. By the end of next season (and maybe sooner), the worst defenders on the team - DDJ, Nolley, Davenport - will all be gone. Jizzle, Skillings, Sage and Griffith should all be above average on defense once they develop. It's possible to hide one below average defender, a lot harder to hide 2/3 of them. Of course if we are going to hide him, he needs to compensate on offense. We'll have to wait and see, I'm not ready to throw him out because he had a normal freshman season.

At worst Newman is a high quality role player and leader off the bench. At best he's the 3rd/4th best player on offense and the best defender on the team. I'm taking either option. You don't build culture or a consistent winning team by replacing half the roster every year.

 

[sedziobs]

Great info, I was assuming Day Day was basically a coin flip if he'd transition quickly enough to play big minutes this year, but it sounds like the odds are really quite a bit lower than that.

There are definitely plenty of minutes left over at PG/SG if we pencil in Day Day and Jizzle for 20 minutes combined. Skillings I'd say will be a 20-25 minute guy (and may get some of those at the 3). You think Newman will play SG, I don't. If he does he takes care of 20 more minutes, leaving 20 for MAW/another PG.

If Newman is our starting 3 (Nolley leaves) or doesn't play SG, there's in theory room to keep MAW, add another guard and let them compete for minutes - which does seem to be Wes's way. On the other hand it's harder to convince a top transfer guard to come in if he has to compete with a 5th year guard for minutes. If MAW leaves, there is a huge void at PG and we could try to entice a top transfer with 30+ minutes and be one of the main guys.

We're on the same page here. I think Newman is a guard, not that he can't play 3. The 3 is a flexible position where you can put guards or forwards. I just think if Nolley stays he plays 30 minutes there with Reed and Rayvon backing him up. So that pushes Newman to SG with Skillings.

Of course if Nolley leaves you can fill those minutes with just about any player. Bring in a combo guard and shift Newman/ Skillings down to SF, or bring in a wing or even a bigger forward with perimeter skills.

In addition to Nolley's uncertainty, it sounds like we want to keep a spot open for 5 star big man Flory Bidunga just in case. And it might not be wise to count on Newman for major minutes given his injury history. Lots to juggle here, which will be very tough if Davenport and Hensley stay.

 

[TheLongHaul]

Okay, you want another bar? How about Jarron Cumberland, he wasn't quick or athletic either.

Reed is 6'7" and put up good rebounding numbers. We barely saw him play, so it's hard to judge much more. He is a bit of a tweener, he either needs to be quick enough to defend the 3, or bulk up enough to defend/rebound as an undersized 4.

We may also be able to hide him on defense in the coming years if needed. By the end of next season (and maybe sooner), the worst defenders on the team - DDJ, Nolley, Davenport - will all be gone. Jizzle, Skillings, Sage and Griffith should all be above average on defense once they develop. It's possible to hide one below average defender, a lot harder to hide 2/3 of them. Of course if we are going to hide him, he needs to compensate on offense. We'll have to wait and see, I'm not ready to throw him out because he had a normal freshman season.

At worst Newman is a high quality role player and leader off the bench. At best he's the 3rd/4th best player on offense and the best defender on the team. I'm taking either option. You don't build culture or a consistent winning team by replacing half the roster every year.

lol, you're comparing Reed to Cumberland now. That should work out for ya. Not sure why you are so impressed by his rebounding numbers when he averaged 8 minutes a game. And no one gets highly recruited because they are a good rebounder.

Glad we can hide him on defense. Nothing more promising going into the B12 and having to hide a guy on defense who hasn't even showed anything on offense.

I'd say at best Newman is a high quality role player off the bench. If more is needed it will mean the bottom of the B12.

I'm not sure why you are so worried about culture. I'd be more worried about winning. There are numerous examples of teams succeeding with many new players. But I'm also not saying they need to run Newman off, I'm fine with him being a role player. But they have to upgrade the talent asap or next year is a blood bath and Wes will start feeling the heat. This team finished 4th in a shitty conference. Imagine how it would have done in the B12. Not sure they would have won a game.

 

[sedziobs]

This was a top 50 Kenpom team. It doesn't make sense to tear it down. The portal is not full of Big 12 starters.

It's normal for 3 star guys to play less than 10 minutes and struggle as true freshmen.

 

[TheLongHaul]

This was a top 50 Kenpom team. It doesn't make sense to tear it down. The portal is not full of Big 12 starters.

It's normal for 3 star guys to play less than 10 minutes and struggle as true freshmen.

It was also an NIT team. Not nearly good enough for the Big12. Needs to get a lot better. I'm not suggesting tearing it down but it needs an influx of talent.

 

[sedziobs]

Switching to big men, there are only 22 players with a minimum 8 OReb rate and PRPG of at least 2.0, and 30 if the PRPG threshold is lowered to Ody's 1.4. This is why I say the portal isn't a gold mine. By the time you sort out the players who aren't upgrades, there's not a lot left.

We're talking to Rienk Mast from Bradley, who is one of the guys on my potential big man upgrade list. Of players with an OReb rate of at least 8, he has the third highest PRPG at 3.5.

 

[skyblade]

We're talking to Rienk Mast from Bradley, who is one of the guys on my potential big man upgrade list. Of players with an OReb rate of at least 8, he has the third highest PRPG at 3.5.

I generally don't pay much attention until guys actually commit, but I've looked a bit at Mast and he doesn't really move the needle for me. He has a lot of similarities to Kalu Ezikpe.

Offensively skilled big man who can shoot/pass well, large body who can bang, doesn't offer much rim protection, doesn't rebound outside of his zone and not much ability to move and guard the perimeter. Though his defense does seem to be more fundamentally sound than Kalu's was.

I'm hoping for a bigger rim protector who can allow Vik to move to the 4. Unless Sage is going to be giving us at least 10-15 minutes per game in that role.

 

[sedziobs]

I generally don't pay much attention until guys actually commit, but I've looked a bit at Mast and he doesn't really move the needle for me. He has a lot of similarities to Kalu Ezikpe.

Offensively skilled big man who can shoot/pass well, large body who can bang, doesn't offer much rim protection, doesn't rebound outside of his zone and not much ability to move and guard the perimeter. Though his defense does seem to be more fundamentally sound than Kalu's was.

I'm hoping for a bigger rim protector who can allow Vik to move to the 4. Unless Sage is going to be giving us at least 10-15 minutes per game in that role.

Mast's offensive numbers are better than Kalu's pretty much across the board. Mast has a 114 ORtg, which would be second on our team just below Vik. Kalu had a 107 ORtg at ODU, worse than all of our regulars except Skillings. Mast is a much better shooter - 53% from midrange and 35% from three on over two attempts per game. Kalu was 42% from midrange and 1-10 from three. Mast has a better assist rate and lower turnover rate. Rebounding numbers are similar and Kalu was a better shot blocker. But Mast has a much lower foul rate, so maybe his defense is better.

Last year we just needed any big who could rebound. There weren't many guys available. I'd also be fine with a rim protector big who isn't as skilled offensively, but that list is probably pretty small too. I don't think we're going to find anyone significantly better than Mast. I'd take him in a heartbeat.

 

[skyblade]

Mast's offensive numbers are better than Kalu's pretty much across the board. Mast has a 114 ORtg, which would be second on our team just below Vik. Kalu had a 107 ORtg at ODU, worse than all of our regulars except Skillings. Mast is a much better shooter - 53% from midrange and 35% from three on over two attempts per game. Kalu was 42% from midrange and 1-10 from three. Mast has a better assist rate and lower turnover rate. Rebounding numbers are similar and Kalu was a better shot blocker. But Mast has a much lower foul rate, so maybe his defense is better.

Last year we just needed any big who could rebound. There weren't many guys available. I'd also be fine with a rim protector big who isn't as skilled offensively, but that list is probably pretty small too. I don't think we're going to find anyone significantly better than Mast. I'd take him in a heartbeat.

I know there is no good way to judge defense using stats, but foul rate doesn't mean a lot. Davenport for example had a lower foul rate. I take foul rate to mean he knows how to play within his capabilities and understands the scheme, not necessarily good defense.

I want a 7-footer who can defend the rim and rebound (FAU's Vladislav Goldin for example, if you watched the elite 8). That's probably not that realistic though, guess I'll have to hope for Sage to be ready.

Mast is a stretch 4 who will probably have to play as an undersized 5 on defense to avoid getting exposed. It looks like he has about as much athleticism as you'd expect from a 6'9", 240lb white guy. He will be a guy who you have to hide on defense when he's on the court.

The Kalu comparison isn't exact, but there's a non-zero chance that Mast goes the Kalu route if he comes here - unable to get on the floor because he lack the athleticism to defend or rebound at a high enough level.

 

[sirthought]

I'm really excited to see the freshmen come in to see how they look.

I'm hopeful that coaches can steer guys to a summer workout plan where they really develop their shooting.

After playing a team like this year's Houston squad and realizing how far you have to go to compete with a team like that...well it might make some players get more serious about improving...or I guess they could just resign themselves to the fact that they can't do that well. But I hope they are inspired to improve.



I'm honestly confused how so many players on this year's team still have eligibility.
Hasn't MAW and Davenport already been here five years?

Hasn't Viktor been here four years? They say he's redshirt sophomore, but he's played two years with Wes and was here two years with Brannen.

Hasn't Ogauma, Ezikpe, Nolley, and Newman already had four years of college? Newman has been here two years and had two years elsewhere.

I don't even know about Phinisee, but he wasn't really all that impressive.

The only player that seemed somewhat exciting to see improve was Vik. Despite some big games, DeJulius never struck me as a guy who played the game the right way. I mostly saw him as a guy who wouldn't pass enough and played hero ball.

The newspaper says everyone could potentially come back except DDJ.

 

[Bearcat_Z]

I believe DeJulius, Phinisee and Ezikpe were the only players that have exhausted their eligibility. Everyone else can return if they want and UC wants them back.

 

[Queens_NYC]

The good news of no news so far is that no current player was so discontent that they threw their name into the portal at the earliest opportunity.

I assume (without any additional knowledge) that after giving the players the end of last week off, Wes and his staff will start having end of year 1-on-1 meetings with the players soon and that we may see some news on outgoings over the coming days.

 

[skyblade]

The good news of no news so far is that no current player was so discontent that they threw their name into the portal at the earliest opportunity.

I assume (without any additional knowledge) that after giving the players the end of last week off, Wes and his staff will start having end of year 1-on-1 meetings with the players soon and that we may see some news on outgoings over the coming days.

According to Chad on his podcasts, meetings started yesterday (Sunday) and will run through today. Tomorrow will wrap up and we'll probably start to see whatever movement that is going to happen soon after.