2023-24 roster

[sedziobs]

Mast is a stretch 4 who will probably have to play as an undersized 5 on defense to avoid getting exposed. It looks like he has about as much athleticism as you'd expect from a 6'9", 240lb white guy. He will be a guy who you have to hide on defense when he's on the court.

The Kalu comparison isn't exact, but there's a non-zero chance that Mast goes the Kalu route if he comes here - unable to get on the floor because he lack the athleticism to defend or rebound at a high enough level.

There's also a non-zero chance he becomes Kevin Obanor or Tanner Groves. Maybe more realistically he becomes Iowa States' Aljaz Kunc or Tre King. I'd prefer that over an unskilled big like Robert Jones.

It's funny to talk about athleticism and defense like this when we play DDJ 30 minutes even when he's overmatched by bigger guards, or Nolley 30 minutes when he's completely disinterested, or Davenport 20 minutes against anyone. Clearly Wes will accept poor defense if it can be made up on offense. Looking at advanced stats if you prefer those, Mast has a 1.4 DBPM and 0.5 DBPR, both better than Ody.

I really don't know what you're looking for in the portal. If guys can't rebound at a lower level, how are they suddenly going to rebound at a higher level? We can talk about intangibles all we want, but at a minimum any big we bring in has to have put up good rebounding stats IMO. They don't grow on trees. Rienk Mast did put up worse numbers against top 100 competition, but he was the best player on a top 90 Kenpom team with a defense ranked #62. I think it would be insane to turn that down. How many guys better than him are out there? EvanMiya ranks Mast as the 7th best transfer overall and 3rd best big man.

One aspect of his game that is appealing to me is he hits over 50% from midrange. Our offense is way too midrange heavy, so might as well bring in guys who can make them.

 

[sedziobs]

I'm honestly confused how so many players on this year's team still have eligibility.

The 2020-21 season didn't count towards eligibility. There will be a bunch of 5 year players (or 6 if they redshirted like Nolley) across college basketball for another couple years. The quality of basketball has been much higher than normal because teams are so old. I think Ken Pomeroy posted that free throw shooting was way better and turnover rates were way lower this year than they've ever been. And Pitt's roster was older on average than at least one NBA lineup.

 

[sedziobs]

As an initial screening for rim protectors in the portal, I sorted for a block rate of at least 6, matching Lakhin, Koval, and Vogt. We're not even talking about elite rim protectors here, but there are only 11 such players in the portal. None from power conferences and only 4 from above average leagues (Ivy, MVC, CUSA). Lowering the block rate threshold to 5 (Gary Clark, Yancy Gates) only brings the list to 17, still with none from major conferences. Elite rim protection would be 8 or higher (Ado, Nysier Brooks, Justin Jackson). Only two of them are in the portal, one from Merrimack and one from Yale.

I would gladly take a rim protector, but it's a shallow pool.

 

[sedziobs]

Elite rim protection would be 8 or higher (Ado, Nysier Brooks, Justin Jackson). Only two of them are in the portal, one from Merrimack and one from Yale.

The screenings above include only players averaging at least 20 minutes. If I lower the threshold to 10 minutes to catch breakout guys like Aziz Bandoago of Utah Valley, then there are 7 elite rim protectors available. Some of them are turnover machines or shoot under 50% at the rim like Bandaogo at Akron. Projects don't always pan out, and we already have one in Sage.

 

[sedziobs]

Nolley enters the draft as expected. Also entering the Portsmouth Invitational in a couple weeks. He posted on Twitter that he's maintaining his eligibility and "the chance to return to University of Cincinnati."

 

[skyblade]

The screenings above include only players averaging at least 20 minutes. If I lower the threshold to 10 minutes to catch breakout guys like Aziz Bandoago of Utah Valley, then there are 7 elite rim protectors available. Some of them are turnover machines or shoot under 50% at the rim like Bandaogo at Akron. Projects don't always pan out, and we already have one in Sage.

Good breakdown, big men are hard to get. They either have size, athleticism or basketball skill, but if they have all three they are in the pros (or at one of a select group of blue bloods). 2/3 is the best we can get and even that isn't easy.

I'd prefer a project big man over Mast, but I won't be too upset either way. I'm probably going to be putting a lot of hope into Sage developing. A pair of 7-footers at center (Sage and a transfer) and Vik/Ody at the 4 is my ideal scenario.

 

[skyblade]

Nolley enters the draft as expected. Also entering the Portsmouth Invitational in a couple weeks. He posted on Twitter that he's maintaining his eligibility and "the chance to return to University of Cincinnati."

I would have been amazed if he didn't. As I noted elsewhere in the thread, the big question now is how long do we keep a spot open for him to return to?

 

[sedziobs]

I would have been amazed if he didn't. As I noted elsewhere in the thread, the big question now is how long do we keep a spot open for him to return to?

I wonder if we keep a spot open for either Nolley or Flory Bidunga. I don't think we can afford to wait for both. But hopefully Wes and the staff have a decent guage on the likelihood of both.

 

[skyblade]

Nolley enters the draft as expected. Also entering the Portsmouth Invitational in a couple weeks.

Reading elsewhere, entering the PIT may be a big sign he's gone. It's not an NCAA sanctioned even, so he faces a likely suspension if he plays and then returns. Last year almost no one who played in the PIT returned to college.

 

[sedziobs]

Reading elsewhere, entering the PIT may be a big sign he's gone. It's not an NCAA sanctioned even, so he faces a likely suspension if he plays and then returns. Last year almost no one who played in the PIT returned to college.

Interesting that they would suspend players. It's an event for seniors, but temporarily with the Covid year those guys can still return. So if that's true, I agree it decreases the chances he'll come back if he faces a suspension.

 

[skyblade]

Interesting that they would suspend players. It's an event for seniors, but temporarily with the Covid year those guys can still return. So if that's true, I agree it decreases the chances he'll come back if he faces a suspension.

Courtney Ramey was suspended 3 games for participating last year, so it's not a huge suspension, but would definitely seem to make Nolley's return more unlikely.

 

[sedziobs]

Courtney Ramey was suspended 3 games for participating last year, so it's not a huge suspension, but would definitely seem to make Nolley's return more unlikely.

It seems like he could make more money with NIL in college than playing in a lower overseas league. He doesn't have even close to enough defense or athleticism to be a 3 and D type in the NBA, especially if Evans and Clark couldn't. Same with landing a spot in a good paying league like Spain or China. And he's too old to be a serious prospect anywhere. He's probably on a Keith Williams path, swapping between New Zealand and G League making 40k.

 

[skyblade]

It seems like he could make more money with NIL in college than playing in a lower overseas league. He doesn't have even close to enough defense or athleticism to be a 3 and D type in the NBA, especially if Evans and Clark couldn't. Same with landing a spot in a good paying league like Spain or China. And he's too old to be a serious prospect anywhere. He's probably on a Keith Williams path, swapping between New Zealand and G League making 40k.

I agree on his NBA chances, unless he can shoot a crazy high percentage from 3, he just doesn't have the defense or athleticism to 3-and-D. He might be able to make better money overseas though (Chad has hinted it would be hard for NIL to compete if Nolley lands in a good paying league). If money is his main concern, we also have to worry about him transferring (I assume he can grad transfer and not sit) and somebody else outbidding us in the NIL market.

All that said, I think the odds that he comes back aren't good. Especially with the PIT as potentially an NCAA violation,

 

[TheRealMick]

I always thought Nolley didn't never show his full potential because he was playing with scrubs. On more of loaded team Nolley could just focus on one aspect of his game. Here he was allowed to freelance because we had no one even close to his ability and he knew it. I would take him in 1st rd if I was NBA GM. He can score on all levels and rebounds better than most guards.

 

[skyblade]

I always thought Nolley didn't never show his full potential because he was playing with scrubs. On more of loaded team Nolley could just focus on one aspect of his game. Here he was allowed to freelance because we had no one even close to his ability and he knew it. I would take him in 1st rd if I was NBA GM. He can score on all levels and rebounds better than most guards.

I guess we'll see how the draft goes. If I were a GM I would not draft Nolley, nor would he be a particularly high priority as a UDFA. He doesn't get to the rim well, doesn't defend that well and doesn't rebound that well for his size. He's a 3 as I don't think he can reliably guard the 2. There are only two skills he is very good to great at and those are his 3-point shot and shot fake.

 

[TheRealMick]

I guess we'll see how the draft goes. If I were a GM I would not draft Nolley, nor would he be a particularly high priority as a UDFA. He doesn't get to the rim well, doesn't defend that well and doesn't rebound that well for his size. He's a 3 as I don't think he can reliably guard the 2. There are only two skills he is very good to great at and those are his 3-point shot and shot fake.

He arguably was best rebounder on team 2nd half of season. His leaping ability went under the radar because he never had any monster dunks. The athleticism was on display rebounding. As far as defense I think under right system he's above average. For first time arguably in his life he won't be most talented on team. I think that best for him and takes his game to another level.

 

[skyblade]

He arguably was best rebounder on team 2nd half of season. His leaping ability went under the radar because he never had any monster dunks. The athleticism was on display rebounding. As far as defense I think under right system he's above average. For first time arguably in his life he won't be most talented on team. I think that best for him and takes his game to another level.

5th on the team in rebounding percentage in conference (behind Vik, Ody, Kalu and Skillings). His rebounding did improve, but wasn't spectacular. His athleticism is at best average (and I'd argue below average) for the NBA level.

Apparently a two-way contract at the NBA level is 500k, which likely blows away what we can give him via NIL. If a team falls in love with Nolley's 3-point shooting and thinks he can be adequate everywhere else, I think he's got a chance to get one. If they rate his other skills (and athleticism) higher than I do, than his chances go up even more.

 

[sedziobs]

Two-way contracts are kind of like a third round of the draft. Each team has two, and about half of those are first year players, so close to one first year player per team. He should leave if a team shows interest.

Some college team still might compete with 500k though. Nijel Pack is getting at least 400k per year and a car at Miami. That's one of the few deals that leaked to the public, and I'm sure some players are getting more. An LSU gymnast supposedly has over 3 million in deals.

 

[skyblade]

5th on the team in rebounding percentage in conference (behind Vik, Ody, Kalu and Skillings). His rebounding did improve, but wasn't spectacular. His athleticism is at best average (and I'd argue below average) for the NBA level.

Correcting myself a bit, his rebounding percentage was very good. Comparable to Jacob Evans senior season. Comparing him to Evans he trails in a lot of aspects (worse at getting to and finishing at the rim, worse block and steal rates). What does stand out is although they shot around the same percentage from 3, Nolley shot at a much higher volume and took a lot more unassisted - which I take as signs that his three point percentage should remain high in the NBA.

I'll admit I'm a little biased against Nolley, because his tendency to lollygag at times annoyed me. But an NBA team could see that as more potential if he devotes himself.

Overall, I still say a team needs to be enamored by his three point shooting and shot fake as those are what stand out as elite. If that happens the rest should be enough to get him a chance (2nd round pick or undrafted on a 2-way contract).

 

[sedziobs]

Nolley's rebounding was about average for a 3. An above average offensive rebounding team grabs 30% of misses, which breaks out to something like C-10 PF-8 SF-6 SG-4 PG-2. Nolley has a rate under 4 for his career, and even though he improved a lot in conference play was still under 6. Davenport had exactly the same numbers this year both in conference and overall.