Bearcat vs Houston

[Scheids21]

Good call. 25 Coaches. 27 AP. 29 BCS. UCF 18 in BCS. Even with a UCF loss and a UC win it's probably going to be close. Can we get a 6 point swing from both ends? I could see that happening since we play a top 25 opponent and SMU is 89. UCF plays away and we play at home. We will play 2 days before UCF so even if we can squeak out a win we will be biting nails on Saturday Dec 7th.

I forgot they play USF first my bad

It would definitely be close, but so you know, the BCS rankings have not updated yet.

 

[waterhead]

It's pretty amazing the turn around we have made. After we lost to USF I was thinking we had lost almost all BCS hopes. But I was waiting for loss #2 in conference before making that assessment.

Win or lose there is still very good reason to be excited about our last game. Not only is it a rivalry but our BCS hopes are still alive. There is nothing worse (as a fan IMO) than knowing we don't have any chance.

 

[waterhead]

It would definitely be close, but so you know, the BCS rankings have not updated yet.

OK thanks. So our chances might even improve a little. We beat #45 Houston and UCF beat #72 Rutgers. UCF probably stays about where they are and UC moves up a few notches?

 

[david aka the TYZ]

A loss by UCF will drop them out of the polls which will hurt their BCS ranking. Their winning keeps them ranked, they haven't looked good in weeks. If they lose and we win, I'm 99% certain we would finish ahead of them in the BCS.

 

[Scheids21]

OK thanks. So our chances might even improve a little. We beat #45 Houston and UCF beat #72 Rutgers. UCF probably stays about where they are and UC moves up a few notches?

Most likely. Also, ESPN just updated their bowl projections. Both Schlabach and Edwards have UC playing UNC in the Belk Bowl.

 

[Gotcha23]

A loss by UCF will drop them out of the polls which will hurt their BCS ranking. Their winning keeps them ranked, they haven't looked good in weeks. If they lose and we win, I'm 99% certain we would finish ahead of them in the BCS.

Really?? We lost to two of the worst teams in D1 football. I'm confused how a BCS game could happen with those losses.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

Harris Poll was released: UCF is #20 and Cincinnati is #26.

 

[Scheids21]

Really?? We lost to two of the worst teams in D1 football. I'm confused how a BCS game could happen with those losses.

We are about six spots behind them in the BCS rankings. If they lose one and we beat Louisville, we will tie for the AAC automatic trip to a BCS bowl. First tie-break is head to head; since we didn't play them, it goes to BCS ranking and if we beat Louisville and UCF gets upset, its likely we would jump them.

 

[Scheids21]

A loss by UCF will drop them out of the polls which will hurt their BCS ranking. Their winning keeps them ranked, they haven't looked good in weeks. If they lose and we win, I'm 99% certain we would finish ahead of them in the BCS.

Yeah its clear the voters don't think UCF or Louisville is as good as their records. For example, Louisville is on a 4 game winning streak and during that time they have DROPPED from 18 to 20.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

Really?? We lost to two of the worst teams in D1 football. I'm confused how a BCS game could happen with those losses.

The BCS is an average of three things: the coaches poll that has human voters, the harris poll that has human voters and an average of several computer polls. If UCF loses, they will drop out of the rankings of the human polls which will significantly hurt their average since human polls still make up two-thirds of the BCS rank. Their computer rank won't be that much better than ours as they play in the same conference we do and play many of the same teams. They will have two losses as would we. When you lose late in the year it is a lot worse than losing early because human polls are more a composite of you winning rather than your season as a whole. Since we are already ranked 25th in the coaches and 26th in the harris, beating a team ahead of us in both polls will only move us up, whlie a UCF loss will drop them from the rankings. A small handful of people might still give them a top 25 vote, but not enough to keep them ranked within a few spots of us.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

Really?? We lost to two of the worst teams in D1 football. I'm confused how a BCS game could happen with those losses.

And honestly the possibility of this happening is why the Big East got knocked out of the power conferences moving forward. As of this season though, the team that finishes first goes to a BCS bowl. If there is a tie with no head-to-head tie-breaker then the team with highest ranking in BCS poll gets the bid regardless of what that rank is or how bad they are or who they lost to. I will say it again, if we win and UCF picks up a loss I am 99% certain UC will get the BCS bowl bid. The only way we don't is if UCF loses this first week as opposed to the last week and just about every other team ranked 20-30 lose that would somehow keep UCF hovering around a top 25 rank at season's end. By that same scenario though, UC's win over a top 20 team should move it up further with all those other teams losing. I just don't see UCF keeping a rank ahead of us.

 

[waterhead]

Really?? We lost to two of the worst teams in D1 football. I'm confused how a BCS game could happen with those losses.

We also have some wins to go with the losses in case you missed them. If you are only taking into account our losses but not our wins it's not going to look pretty. Also, if you don't account for improvement during the season (say 6 wins in a row) you will wind up with a strangely skewed ranking for a team based on bad losses from months ago.

Fortunatley for UC some of the polls consider recent play more important.

 

[waterhead]

I am not sure when a team becomes "bowl eligible" but 6 wins in a season is probably on the cusp of getting you there. 6 wins in a row, on the other hand, is going to raise a few eyeborws no matter how good the competition is.

Dominating a good Houston team on the road has raised my eyebrows. The score didn't show it...but if you watched the game...it should have been a 3 touchdown game or more. We are clearly playing much better ball right now than when we played ILL or USF. I can say (with a straight face)...if we go back and replay those games we win them with our current strategy.

The reason we are getting attention/rankings now is because we are NOT the same team that played ILL or USF.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

I am not sure when a team becomes "bowl eligible" but 6 wins in a season is probably on the cusp of getting you there. 6 wins in a row, on the other hand, is going to raise a few eyeborws no matter how good the competition is.

Dominating a good Houston team on the road has raised my eyebrows. The score didn't show it...but if you watched the game...it should have been a 3 touchdown game or more. We are clearly playing much better ball right now than when we played ILL or USF. I can say (with a straight face)...if we go back and replay those games we win them with our current strategy.

The reason we are getting attention/rankings now is because we are NOT the same team that played ILL or USF.

6 wins makes you bowl eligible. Doesn't mean you'll get a bowl, but it makes you bowl eligible. Some teams play 13 games and there has been debate whether or not 6-7 deserves a bowl game, but the rule is 6 wins.

 

[waterhead]

6 wins makes you bowl eligible. Doesn't mean you'll get a bowl, but it makes you bowl eligible. Some teams play 13 games and there has been debate whether or not 6-7 deserves a bowl game, but the rule is 6 wins.

Thank you for the info

 

[Gotcha23]

The BCS is an average of three things: the coaches poll that has human voters, the harris poll that has human voters and an average of several computer polls. If UCF loses, they will drop out of the rankings of the human polls which will significantly hurt their average since human polls still make up two-thirds of the BCS rank. Their computer rank won't be that much better than ours as they play in the same conference we do and play many of the same teams. They will have two losses as would we. When you lose late in the year it is a lot worse than losing early because human polls are more a composite of you winning rather than your season as a whole. Since we are already ranked 25th in the coaches and 26th in the harris, beating a team ahead of us in both polls will only move us up, whlie a UCF loss will drop them from the rankings. A small handful of people might still give them a top 25 vote, but not enough to keep them ranked within a few spots of us.

Great explanation. Interesting, I found myself thinking there was no shot. Apparently, we could still be BCS bound!

 

[david aka the TYZ]

Great explanation. Interesting, I found myself thinking there was no shot. Apparently, we could still be BCS bound!

Yeah getting there and deserving to be there are two different things.

 

[Scheids21]

Yeah getting there and deserving to be there are two different things.

Haha yeah don't go down that road David...otherwise the Big East only deserved about 3 BCS berths the last decade.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

UCF fell one spot to #19 in the BCS. I don't think the full rankings have been released yet.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

Cincinnati goes up to #28 in the BCS. UC is #25 in the coaches poll, #26 in the Harris and 49.5 in the computers (rose 11 spots from last week).

It is almost assured at this point if UCF loses one game, Cincinnati will jump them in the BCS rankings.