Every day, a reporter breathlessly cites "sources" claiming to know exactly what's going on inside the Big 12. Some of it might be true, but all of it can't be true simply because the of plethora of contradictions.
Logic and common sense is a useful tool here. Is Arkansas State really being considered? Folks, I've televised games in Jonesboro within the past year. TRUST ME, the Big 12 isn't going there. It's like going to Anderson Township with about half the businesses on their version of Beechmont Avenue. Plus, their TV market is essentially Memphis. C'mon.
The names that overlap in 99.9% of the conversations (outside of the disingenuous ESPN clan) names BYU, Cincinnati, Houston. I know nothing about BYU's appeal or the B12's interest so it's hard to comment. However, I've lived in Houston for about 4 years. For 3 of those 4 years, nobody said a word about the University of Houston or it's athletics. I attended the UC-Houston game 3 years ago at BBVA Compass Stadium (a downtown soccer stadium with about a 22,000 capacity) and they couldn't put 10,000 in there. Now, they've built a nice on campus football facility and made some nice coaching hires, but their entire argument for the B12 consists of 1 very good football season and politics. Politics are important, sure. But the Texas schools can't make decisions in a vacuum here. And Houston has as many things going against it as going for. Do I think they're being seriously considered? Sure. But to put them as the B12's #1 choice casts all fact, logic and common sense aside.
Cincinnati, logistically, would not be a B12 fit under normal circumstances. But consider all the facts we've heard from the conference over the past 4-5 years and dovetail it with how hard UC officials (fmr President Ono leading the way) has worked ingratiating us with the Big 12 while the rest of these johnny come lately schools have dithered.
-If they choose to expand, their preferred direction is north/northeast, to take advantage of untapped TV/recruiting markets (this is not you, BYU);
-They want a travel partner for West Virginia;
-They want a school that befits their academic reputation (bye bye, Houston and Memphis);
-They want a school that can be competitive immediately (this has surfaced recently, not sure it's true but makes some sense).
Using the above criteria, name another school on any list up to and including 18 that checks every box.
Also consider that UC is the only school not currently engaging in some variety of overt campaigning. They've DONE their due diligence. The groundwork has been long laid, paved and paid for.
Is UC a lead pipe lock to get in? Of course not. The Big 12 could still decide not to expand. Maybe a FedEx plane lands in Dallas and drops off a next day air package that pops open Chris Mills-style with a hundred million dollars in it and Memphis gets in. Maybe Boren is a Jonesboro native. Anything is possible.
What I am saying is that if logic and common sense rule, then Cincinnati is the obvious and only choice. And I'm confident and comfortable (for a change) with the work that our officials put in over the course of years to get us in. Nobody can say that UC dropped the ball in any way. They've done all they can do.
If I were a betting man, I'd put a significant chunk of my discretionary income on UC getting in, followed by BYU, Houston or maybe Memphis. It's the only thing that makes sense.
