Bracketology

[GarradJ21]

Went through all the games since the top 16 teams came out. I think if they ran it today it would go like... (In order, Give or take a spot)

1 seeds

Virginia
Villanova
Xavier
Duke

2 seeds

Kansas
Purdue
Cincinnati
North Carolina

3 seeds

Auburn
Michigan State
Michigan
Tennessee

4 seeds

Wichita State
Gonzaga
Clemson
Texas Tech

Yeah I think we get the two for sure.. Xavier could fall out of the one line if Kansas wins their tourney and X's loses to Nova again. Either way I think we really might get the 2.

 

[Alum2013]

Yeah I think we get the two for sure.. Xavier could fall out of the one line if Kansas wins their tourney and X's loses to Nova again. Either way I think we really might get the 2.

I think we for sure deserve the 2 seed if we win out but if we lose once, even in the championship, I think they might drop us to 3.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

I think we for sure deserve the 2 seed if we win out but if we lose once, even in the championship, I think they might drop us to 3.

I was under the impression that the selections would be made prior to the championship game.

 

[waterhead]

I was under the impression that the selections would be made prior to the championship game.

There will likely still be a couple of seeding decisions to be made deep into tourneys but not many. Contingency plans will be ready. Our tourney championship may or may not matter.

Obviously if someone other than Houston, WSU or UC wins the tourney they will have to plug someone else in. If either of those 3 teams is a borderline call for a particular seed line...our tourney could matter as well.

They can't just ignore it unless it doesn't matter for their brackets.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

There will likely still be a couple of seeding decisions to be made deep into tourneys but not many. Contingency plans will be ready. Our tourney championship may or may not matter.

Obviously if someone other than Houston, WSU or UC wins the tourney they will have to plug someone else in. If either of those 3 teams is a borderline call for a particular seed line...our tourney could matter as well.

They can't just ignore it unless it doesn't matter for their brackets.

Thanks for the clarification WH.

 

[tonka]

I looked at the 16 seeds the committee put out 4 weeks ago and checked the records since then (including best wins and all losses). I also looked at 4 teams that seem to be moving up and what they have done since the reveal. Based on this information, I can't see any teams jumping us on the 2 line (especially with Auburn losing 3 times). Also, I don't see how we can move to a 1 seed even if we win out. It is probably too difficult to jump Kansas and Duke to get there considering they've only lost once since the reveal.

(Record since) Best win [Losses]
1 Virginia (5-1) Miami [Virginia Tech]
1 Villanova (4-2) Xavier [Providence Creighton]
1 Xavier (4-1) Seton Hall [Villanova]
1 Purdue (5-2) Penn St (2) [Wisconsin Michigan]
2 Kansas (5-1) Texas Tech [Oklahoma St ]
2 Duke (6-1) UNC [Virginia Tech]
2 Auburn (3-3) Kentucky [South Carolina Florida Arkansas]
2 Cincinnati (5-2) Wichita St [Houston Wichita St]
3 UNC (3-2) Louisville [Miami Duke]
3 Texas Tech (3-4) Oklahoma [Baylor Oklahoma St Kansas West Virginia]
3 Michigan St (5-1) Northwestern [Michigan]
3 Clemson (2-4) Florida St [Florida St Duke Virginia Tech Syracuse]
4 Arizona (5-1) Arizona St [Oregon]
4 Tennessee (5-1) Florida [Georgia]
4 Ohio St (2-3) Indiana [Penn St (2) Michigan]
4 Oklahoma (2-4) Kansas St [Texas Tech Texas Kansas Baylor]

Michigan (9-0) OSU, Purdue, MSU
Gonzaga (6-0) St. Mary's
West Virginia (4-2) Texas Tech [Kansas Texas]
Wichita St (6-1) Cincinnati [Cincinnati]


Sorry for the eye sore chart. I am not sure how to format on here. I hope you get the point.

 

[Alum2013]

Thanks for the clarification WH.

What he said.

If we don't win I could see them giving Michigan the 2 seed over us. They weren't too too far out before and have been on a tear since, beating some quality teams along the way. Our only chance of beating a good team will be in the Championship game.

 

[cincrulz11]

What he said.

If we don't win I could see them giving Michigan the 2 seed over us. They weren't too too far out before and have been on a tear since, beating some quality teams along the way. Our only chance of beating a good team will be in the Championship game.

just don't see it. rpi has screwed the big 10 this year. even after those wins michigan only has 11 quad 1 and 2 wins and they have a quad 3 loss. we already have 13 quad 1 and 2 wins with a chance at 2 more (tulsa and championship game).



i dont think i put this here, and this was as of saturday so the numbers could have changed a bit. but to show how much the rpi is screwing the big 10 look at michigan state.


michigan state has 8 quad 1 and 2 wins according to rpi. but if you did quad wins by kenpom they'd have 17 quad 1 and 2 wins.

 

[Alum2013]

just don't see it. rpi has screwed the big 10 this year. even after those wins michigan only has 11 quad 1 and 2 wins and they have a quad 3 loss. we already have 13 quad 1 and 2 wins with a chance at 2 more (tulsa and championship game).



i dont think i put this here, and this was as of saturday so the numbers could have changed a bit. but to show how much the rpi is screwing the big 10 look at michigan state.


michigan state has 8 quad 1 and 2 wins according to rpi. but if you did quad wins by kenpom they'd have 17 quad 1 and 2 wins.

True, I get all that. I guess when I think if quality wins I think of actual quality wins, not this quadrant 1 and 2 nonsense (see rant in Games of Important thread).

 

[justinhub2003]

I think the conference championship will matter;


I just think the committee will end up having 2 versions of a bracket, one if UC wins and another if UC loses.

I think we are a 3 seed no matter what.


But I'd rather be a 3 seed than the last 2 seed that has to go out west.

i really want to go to the tourney this year but anything too far west will put a wrench in that.

 

[cincrulz11]

True, I get all that. I guess when I think if quality wins I think of actual quality wins, not this quadrant 1 and 2 nonsense (see rant in Games of Important thread).

the quadrants system is actually a big upgrade (winning on the road is much tougher than at home), its just using rpi to figure out the quadrants is awful.


it benefits us a great deal this year though, so go rpi!

 

[Jon Rycek]

True, I get all that. I guess when I think if quality wins I think of actual quality wins, not this quadrant 1 and 2 nonsense (see rant in Games of Important thread).

It's not about what Alum2013 from Cincinnati thinks bough. It's about what the committee actually uses..

 

[justinhub2003]

That second round matchup is going to be tough for us.

Lunardi has us playing seton hall. That’s gonna be a tough physical game if that happened

 

[tonka]

I am hopeful that we can get a 2 seed with Auburn or Tennessee as the 3 and Xavier as the 1. I think we matchup well with those SEC schools and I would love another crack at the Muskies. As for potential 7-10 seeds, I would like to avoid Virginia Tech and maybe Nevada. I am confident we could beat them but VT has defeated the top ACC teams and Nevada has the Martin twins who are talented. I feel good though no matter who we match up with.

 

[Queens_NYC]

I'd feel confident going up against any SEC team this year.

 

[sedziobs]

Bracket preview seed list, with records on Feb 11 in red and current records in blue. (Group 1, Group 2, bad losses)

1. Virginia (7-1, 5-1) (9-1, 5-1)
2. Villanova (8-1, 5-1) (8-3, 7-0, 1)
3. Xavier (7-3, 7-0) (6-3, 8-1)
4. Purdue (5-3, 6-1) (6-4, 5-2)
5. Auburn (4-3, 5-0) (7-4, 4-2)
6. Kansas (9-4, 5-1, 1) (10-3, 8-3, 1)
7. Duke (4-4, 4-1) (6-4, 7-2)
8. Cincinnati (4-2, 7-0) (5-4, 8-0)
9. Clemson (4-4, 6-0) (4-7, 6-1)
10. Texas Tech (4-3, 7-1) (5-6, 7-2)
11. Michigan State (3-2, 5-1) (3-4, 5-0)
12. North Carolina (7-5, 5-1, 1) (11-7, 2-1, 1)
13. Tennessee (4-6, 5-0) (5-6, 6-1)
14. Ohio State (2-4, 6-0, 1) (3-5, 6-2, 1)
15. Arizona (3-3, 6-3) (4-3, 8-3, 1)
16. Oklahoma (6-5, 2-3) (6-8, 3-4)

New protected seeds on bracketmatrix:
Michigan (6-5, 5-1, 1)
Wichita St (4-3, 10-2, 1)
West Virginia (7-7, 6-1, 1)

Michigan St has done basically nothing since the preview, so I don't see how they move up from #11. Quite a few have worse resumes now (Xavier, Purdue, Clemson, Texas Tech, OSU, Oklahoma). Only Kansas, Duke, and UNC (plus the newcomers) improved significantly.

 

[tonka]

Bracket preview seed list, with records on Feb 11 in red and current records in blue. (Group 1, Group 2, bad losses)

1. Virginia (7-1, 5-1) (9-1, 5-1)
2. Villanova (8-1, 5-1) (8-3, 7-0, 1)
3. Xavier (7-3, 7-0) (6-3, 8-1)
4. Purdue (5-3, 6-1) (6-4, 5-2)
5. Auburn (4-3, 5-0) (7-4, 4-2)
6. Kansas (9-4, 5-1, 1) (10-3, 8-3, 1)
7. Duke (4-4, 4-1) (6-4, 7-2)
8. Cincinnati (4-2, 7-0) (5-4, 8-0)
9. Clemson (4-4, 6-0) (4-7, 6-1)
10. Texas Tech (4-3, 7-1) (5-6, 7-2)
11. Michigan State (3-2, 5-1) (3-4, 5-0)
12. North Carolina (7-5, 5-1, 1) (11-7, 2-1, 1)
13. Tennessee (4-6, 5-0) (5-6, 6-1)
14. Ohio State (2-4, 6-0, 1) (3-5, 6-2, 1)
15. Arizona (3-3, 6-3) (4-3, 8-3, 1)
16. Oklahoma (6-5, 2-3) (6-8, 3-4)

New protected seeds on bracketmatrix:
Michigan (6-5, 5-1, 1)
Wichita St (4-3, 10-2, 1)
West Virginia (7-7, 6-1, 1)

Michigan St has done basically nothing since the preview, so I don't see how they move up from #11. Quite a few have worse resumes now (Xavier, Purdue, Clemson, Texas Tech, OSU, Oklahoma). Only Kansas, Duke, and UNC (plus the newcomers) improved significantly.

The only way I see Michigan State moving up is because Auburn, Texas Tech, and Clemson all performed worse than them over the past 4 weeks. I agree though, they do not have a super strong resume. A losing quad 1 record will keep them on the 3 line IMO.

 

[Jon Rycek]

That second round matchup is going to be tough for us.

Lunardi has us playing seton hall. That’s gonna be a tough physical game if that happened

See I think we would match up well with them, they get most of their scoring from a few players. They don't have a ton of size. And certainly aren't used to playing defenses like ours, even if they did beat Texas Tech.

 

[Jon Rycek]

Bracket preview seed list, with records on Feb 11 in red and current records in blue. (Group 1, Group 2, bad losses)

1. Virginia (7-1, 5-1) (9-1, 5-1)
2. Villanova (8-1, 5-1) (8-3, 7-0, 1)
3. Xavier (7-3, 7-0) (6-3, 8-1)
4. Purdue (5-3, 6-1) (6-4, 5-2)
5. Auburn (4-3, 5-0) (7-4, 4-2)
6. Kansas (9-4, 5-1, 1) (10-3, 8-3, 1)
7. Duke (4-4, 4-1) (6-4, 7-2)
8. Cincinnati (4-2, 7-0) (5-4, 8-0)
9. Clemson (4-4, 6-0) (4-7, 6-1)
10. Texas Tech (4-3, 7-1) (5-6, 7-2)
11. Michigan State (3-2, 5-1) (3-4, 5-0)
12. North Carolina (7-5, 5-1, 1) (11-7, 2-1, 1)
13. Tennessee (4-6, 5-0) (5-6, 6-1)
14. Ohio State (2-4, 6-0, 1) (3-5, 6-2, 1)
15. Arizona (3-3, 6-3) (4-3, 8-3, 1)
16. Oklahoma (6-5, 2-3) (6-8, 3-4)

New protected seeds on bracketmatrix:
Michigan (6-5, 5-1, 1)
Wichita St (4-3, 10-2, 1)
West Virginia (7-7, 6-1, 1)

Michigan St has done basically nothing since the preview, so I don't see how they move up from #11. Quite a few have worse resumes now (Xavier, Purdue, Clemson, Texas Tech, OSU, Oklahoma). Only Kansas, Duke, and UNC (plus the newcomers) improved significantly.

Yeah despite bracket matrix having them as a 2, the committee already said what they think of them. And they didn't do anything to really add to that resume, so no reason to think they would be higher than us now

 

[sedziobs]

Yeah despite bracket matrix having them as a 2, the committee already said what they think of them. And they didn't do anything to really add to that resume, so no reason to think they would be higher than us now

I agree. People like to talk about them beating Notre Dame with Bonzi Colson, but the committee knew about that on Feb 11th. I'm not buying the idea that Notre Dame is that much better with Bonzi anyway. With him in the lineup, ND is (1-2, 1-0, 2). They have two bad losses with Bonzi.