I also know and have said a stats based site has no idea if BJ Taylor has come back to play or if Foster or Gilbert got hurt. That's where the fans come in and say...I don't think that prediction is going to be accurate.
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Bracketology
- Thread starter jacobkdoyle
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I also know and have said a stats based site has no idea if BJ Taylor has come back to play or if Foster or Gilbert got hurt. That's where the fans come in and say...I don't think that prediction is going to be accurate.
rpiforecast has Temple at 68.5 and UCF at 66.2. That would still make both of them Group 1 wins. I guess the point I have been trying to make is that current RPI is closer than Nolan's predicted RPI to those marks. It would have been a lot easier if I had known rpiforecats had that earlier, lol. I'm not against using predictions, and I'm not saying current RPI is infallible. I'm simply saying that Warren Nolan's predicted RPI tool is not an improvement.
rpiforecast has Temple at 68.5 and UCF at 66.2. That would still make both of them Group 1 wins. I guess the point I have been trying to make is that current RPI is closer than Nolan's predicted RPI to those marks. It would have been a lot easier if I had known rpiforecats had that earlier, lol. I'm not against using predictions, and I'm not saying current RPI is infallible. I'm simply saying that Warren Nolan's predicted RPI tool is not an improvement.
Fair enough. I am a newbie to Warren Nolan and I don't have his historical accuracy. I am open to different predictions...
david aka the TYZ
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If we win out we will no doubt be a number 1 seed. 32-2, on a 25 game win streak. More than likely the best record in the country, plenty of group one wins. Unless four other teams ahead of us also win out there's no way that resume isn't a 1 seed. It's not going to happen but if it did there's no way we aren't a 1 seed. Too many teams have already taken bad and mediocre losses and will continue to. Villinova is the only team I can see as a 1 or 2 loss team when it's all said and done. So if we are we'll get the nod over any big 12 team who will have 4-5 losses.
Bearcatboy
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If we win out we will no doubt be a number 1 seed. 32-2, on a 25 game win streak. More than likely the best record in the country, plenty of group one wins. Unless four other teams ahead of us also win out there's no way that resume isn't a 1 seed. It's not going to happen but if it did there's no way we aren't a 1 seed. Too many teams have already taken bad and mediocre losses and will continue to. Villinova is the only team I can see as a 1 or 2 loss team when it's all said and done. So if we are we'll get the nod over any big 12 team who will have 4-5 losses.
No shot at a 1 if we win out
Protected1
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No shot at a 1 if we win out
Of the top 25 teams in the BPI we have the third worse strength of schedule at 125. We got 2 shots at super high quality wins this season. (My words) lol. We won't have the schedule strength or number of high quality wins to get a 1. Probably not even a 2. Thus far we only beat one sure fire tourney team. Thank the schedule for that.
Protected1
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If we win out we will no doubt be a number 1 seed. 32-2, on a 25 game win streak. More than likely the best record in the country, plenty of group one wins. Unless four other teams ahead of us also win out there's no way that resume isn't a 1 seed. It's not going to happen but if it did there's no way we aren't a 1 seed. Too many teams have already taken bad and mediocre losses and will continue to. Villinova is the only team I can see as a 1 or 2 loss team when it's all said and done. So if we are we'll get the nod over any big 12 team who will have 4-5 losses.
A 4 or 5 loss Big 12 team will have way more column 1 wins than us and a better strength of schedule. Whether it be Ku, WVu, Texas Tech or Ou. The ACC always gets 1 seed. And state or Purdue will get the last one
No shot at a 1 if we win out
Yeah okay.. it's pretty much guaranteed if not at least very likely. And no shot. Almost every team in the country already has 2 losses. When it's all said and done at least two one seeds will have 4 losses this year
A 4 or 5 loss Big 12 team will have way more column 1 wins than us and a better strength of schedule. Whether it be Ku, WVu, Texas Tech or Ou. The ACC always gets 1 seed. And state or Purdue will get the last one
That's only 3 lol
Protected1
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That's only 3 lol
My bad. I thought Nova was a given. Highest seed we can expect is a 4.
My bad. I thought Nova was a given. Highest seed we can expect is a 4.
Not that I think it will happen, but if we win out I think we are a #1 seed. That would be three wins against WSU most likely and a win at Houston and SMU. Plus no losses since December. I know everyone wants to crap on our schedule but this is going a bit to far.
Protected1
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Not that I think it will happen, but if we win out I think we are a #1 seed. That would be three wins against WSU most likely and a win at Houston and SMU. Plus no losses since December. I know everyone wants to crap on our schedule but this is going a bit to far.
The only thing that's going to far is anyone thinking we have any shot at a #1 seed. You are talking like wins against Houston and SMU are great wins. Those two teams might not een make the tourney.
The only thing that's going to far is anyone thinking we have any shot at a #1 seed. You are talking like wins against Houston and SMU are great wins. Those two teams might not een make the tourney.
Wins at Houston and SMU are likely group 1 wins. That means the committee sees them as “great wins” not me. Three wins over WSU would be pretty remarkable. None of this will happen so this is just and academic exercise. Personally, I think UC will be lucky to get a 4 because I think they have 2-3 more losses on their schedule.
WAITE HOYT 2
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Really think this is going to be a very difficult year for he selection committee The blue bloods such as Duke, KY and UNC are not slam dunks this year. The Pac 12 is a mess. Should be a very interesting selection Sunday.
Not that I think it will happen, but if we win out I think we are a #1 seed. That would be three wins against WSU most likely and a win at Houston and SMU. Plus no losses since December. I know everyone wants to crap on our schedule but this is going a bit to far.
I think our ceiling is a 2. I think we start from there and drop around one seed line for each loss from here on out. I think we are going to be plus or minus a seed line from matching our losses.
Wins at Houston and SMU are likely group 1 wins. That means the committee sees them as “great wins” not me. Three wins over WSU would be pretty remarkable. None of this will happen so this is just and academic exercise. Personally, I think UC will be lucky to get a 4 because I think they have 2-3 more losses on their schedule.
Having column 1 and 2 wins is huge but in the end I think the committee will look at whether our wins in each column are at the top end or bottom end of that spectrum. We aren't going to have a lot of marquee wins because we only have WSU to do that with. We have likely lost our two next best chances.
If we can put up a good win loss % against column 1 and 2 I think we will be okay. We are projected to be 5-3 against column 1 which would mean we win every game until the last game away at WSU. Worst we want to do is go 4-4 against column 1. I would rather pick up a column 2 loss than a column 1 at this point so we look better against the best teams. Our column 2 should look very very good as a % even with a loss. We want column 1 to look good as a % as well.
My bad. I thought Nova was a given. Highest seed we can expect is a 4.
Ok
It's still really early. It's hard to tell what the 1 line will look like. The Big Ten is very weak this year, so it will probably take Purdue finishing out the season with only 1 or 2 more losses to get there. Michigan St has only a single Group 1 win right now. The Big 12, while very strong could very well beat each other up at the top. I don't know if a 6 7 loss team from the Big 12 would make it over 32-2 UC. Kansas and Oklahoma have been vulnerable. Villanova's schedule is back loaded. They play at Providence, Xavier, Creighton and Seton Hall in February. There's a chance they could add some losses as well.
jacobkdoyle
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Having column 1 and 2 wins is huge but in the end I think the committee will look at whether our wins in each column are at the top end or bottom end of that spectrum. We aren't going to have a lot of marquee wins because we only have WSU to do that with. We have likely lost our two next best chances.
If we can put up a good win loss % against column 1 and 2 I think we will be okay. We are projected to be 5-3 against column 1 which would mean we win every game until the last game away at WSU. Worst we want to do is go 4-4 against column 1. I would rather pick up a column 2 loss than a column 1 at this point so we look better against the best teams. Our column 2 should look very very good as a % even with a loss. We want column 1 to look good as a % as well.
Why label them as a certain group if there are tiers within that group? That doesn't make sense to me. The committee is going to look at Group 1 wins and then analyze how "Group 1-y" they really are?
It's still really early. It's hard to tell what the 1 line will look like. The Big Ten is very weak this year, so it will probably take Purdue finishing out the season with only 1 or 2 more losses to get there. Michigan St has only a single Group 1 win right now. The Big 12, while very strong could very well beat each other up at the top. I don't know if a 6 7 loss team from the Big 12 would make it over 32-2 UC. Kansas and Oklahoma have been vulnerable. Villanova's schedule is back loaded. They play at Providence, Xavier, Creighton and Seton Hall in February. There's a chance they could add some losses as well.
My main concern is our chances at signature wins from here on out. If we beat WSU once I think it will look pretty good (provide WSU doesn't keep blowing other games). If we beat them twice they might be starting to appear toward the bottom end of the top 25. They just lost to SMU at home which doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in just how good they are. I mean the biggest knock on them last year was not playing in a good conference. They are 17 in Kenpom right now. They have to win out (outside of UC) to give us marquee win chances.