Bracketology

[cincrulz11]

I just want to add that at although the quality of these wins is different, at least they are both good wins. Under the old system, a win at Duke was the same as a home win against Maryland! I agree that no system is perfect, but the new groups are lightyears better than just top 50 in my opinion.

oh yeah ill agree with that for sure. there must be more credit given to winning road games. obviously if we beat smu at home and on the road that the road win was much more difficult.



maybe it needs to expand beyond just top 25 at home? or maybe come down from 75 road teams. im not sure. kenpom 27 fsu would be favored at 67 ncsu and 74 BC by 1 point according to kenpom. but fsu would be a group 2 home game while wins at ncsu and BC would be group 1 road wins.

 

[waterhead]

Our schedule has been met with some adversity all along. UCLA lost a few players and a lot of teams lost games right in front of us making our games against them kind of "must win" situations for them. UCF lost two players but they were supposed to be a top level AAC team. We played UCF with Taylor his first game back on a night when the football team was honored. We are playing off campus for the first time in 30 years. We are playing more away/neutral games because of that. We had to pick up some poor non con games because of that. We will play away on senior night two times for the second year in a row. That should not happen.

If we come through this without too much damage it's going to be a great year. The committee isn't going to realize half of this stuff which is unfortunate. But we should be very well prepared as a team in March regardless of our non con SOS.

 

[justinhub2003]

Its early still and the RPI can be pretty volatile. But the league is hugely improved in that category which really helps teams maintain their ranking by playing top 100 teams.

I'm all about Kenpom but looking at RPI since its what the committee uses

Last year top 100 RPI teams: 4 (UC, SMU, Houston, UCF)
This year Top 100 RPI teams: 9 ( UC, WSU, SMU, Houston, Tulane, Tulsa, UCF, Memphis, UCONN)

Tulsa is 121 currently

When top 100 teams play each, win or lose, generally will stay top 100. If the teams in the top 9 of RPI can avoid losses to ECU and USF, we could finish with 9 teams in the RPI top 100. Which gives us a lot of good win opportunities.



While this league could still be a 2-3 bid league, there is no doubting that its improved on all fronts.

Once they fire Ollie and get Tom crean, UConn will start winning again.

 

[cincrulz11]

Its early still and the RPI can be pretty volatile. But the league is hugely improved in that category which really helps teams maintain their ranking by playing top 100 teams.

I'm all about Kenpom but looking at RPI since its what the committee uses

Last year top 100 RPI teams: 4 (UC, SMU, Houston, UCF)
This year Top 100 RPI teams: 9 ( UC, WSU, SMU, Houston, Tulane, Tulsa, UCF, Memphis, UCONN)

Tulsa is 121 currently

When top 100 teams play each, win or lose, generally will stay top 100. If the teams in the top 9 of RPI can avoid losses to ECU and USF, we could finish with 9 teams in the RPI top 100. Which gives us a lot of good win opportunities.



While this league could still be a 2-3 bid league, there is no doubting that its improved on all fronts.

Once they fire Ollie and get Tom crean, UConn will start winning again.

warren nolan's predicted results only have the first 4 finishing in the top 100 in rpi.

 

[waterhead]

Its early still and the RPI can be pretty volatile. But the league is hugely improved in that category which really helps teams maintain their ranking by playing top 100 teams.

Once they fire Ollie and get Tom crean, UConn will start winning again.

I'm not quite sold on this idea. We were around #7 as a conference in OOC and that is probably where we landed last year. We are top heavy with two teams just like last year. The middle of the conference is getting mucky again.

 

[sedziobs]

maybe it needs to expand beyond just top 25 at home? or maybe come down from 75 road teams. im not sure. kenpom 27 fsu would be favored at 67 ncsu and 74 BC by 1 point according to kenpom. but fsu would be a group 2 home game while wins at ncsu and BC would be group 1 road wins.

Yeah, when you get near the cutoff points for each Group, things are going to get messy. That will happen regardless of how the groups are set up.

And that's why I root for the teams on our schedule to stay on the right side of those cutoffs. It doesn't necessarily mean a team is significantly better, but it makes a big difference in how they appear to the committee.

 

[sedziobs]

warren nolan's predicted results only have the first 4 finishing in the top 100 in rpi.

But rpiforecast has six finishing in the top 100 (actually all six end up top 75, which is what really matters). Warren Nolan's predictions are biased toward higher ranked teams, since he assumes the favorite wins every single game. That hurts predicted records for middle of the pack teams.

 

[cincrulz11]

But rpiforecast has six finishing in the top 100 (actually all six end up top 75, which is what really matters). Warren Nolan's predictions are biased toward higher ranked teams, since he assumes the favorite wins every single game. That hurts predicted records for middle of the pack teams.

and they are all right on the fringe of the top 100 even in his predictions.


but it still remains possible they all miss the cut. i wouldn't expect UCF to miss the top 100 and i think temple can stay in it too (who wasn't even in the 9 teams he listed). i dont really have much faith in any of the others though.

 

[waterhead]

and they are all right on the fringe of the top 100 even in his predictions.


but it still remains possible they all miss the cut. i wouldn't expect UCF to miss the top 100 and i think temple can stay in it too (who wasn't even in the 9 teams he listed). i dont really have much faith in any of the others though.

I think that's the problem is we are playing fringe teams that could be on the inside our outside of arbitrary cutoffs. Whereas a different conference may have more teams squarely inside the cutoff or higher ranked in general.

We have too many border teams which means we are going to have to get the job done in a big way to avoid getting jobbed again.

 

[cincrulz11]

I think that's the problem is we are playing fringe teams that could be on the inside our outside of arbitrary cutoffs. Whereas a different conference may have more teams squarely inside the cutoff or higher ranked in general.

We have too many border teams which means we are going to have to get the job done in a big way to avoid getting jobbed again.

but the original point from justin still remains. the conference is trending up and hopefully this is just the start. this can be a solid bball conference.

 

[waterhead]

but the original point from justin still remains. the conference is trending up and hopefully this is just the start. this can be a solid bball conference.

It's solid no doubt! I am just speaking in terms of seeding. We are still going to get hosed a little...I hope just not as bad as year's past.

I think the main thing the committee focused on last year was not only total opportunities with top 50 but also the % of wins in that category. We fell short on both. That doesn't have to happen this year. We might not have the total opportunities as other conferences but we can win a better %.

Column 2 is going to look great this year! Column 1 is still very suspect if we don't win a good %. Our opportunities aren't as many and not as highly ranked as we need them to be. We need WSU to clean house outside of our games with them.

 

[Protected1]

Any chance we can join the big east again for bball only? I'm kidding. . . Not really

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Just booked a Vegas trip for a buddy's bachelor party on conference tournament weekend. Oh yeah!

 

[Protected1]

Just booked a Vegas trip for a buddy's bachelor party on conference tournament weekend. Oh yeah!

Is the conference tourney in Vegas this year?

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Is the conference tourney in Vegas this year?

The PAC 12 and WAC ones are. I'm just excited to sit around the sportsbook and bet on games. Both times I've gone before UC has lost on a 3 at the buzzer the first day (West Va and UConn). Here's to hoping for a better result!

 

[justinhub2003]

I won't hear any arguments that says the league isn't improving.


The fact that teams are canablizing each other on the road shows as much. While its top heavy with elite teams, the middle is really improved.

The league picked up 19 wins against the power 6 schools.

Dawkins has UCF trending up
Tulane is much improved
Tulsa is holding steady at being mediorce
Memphis can go either way but I think Tubby gets them going eventiually
Sampson is recruiting well and has Houston on the bubble
Jank is a great coach and is bringing in talented guys
Temple is a mess yet still really talented. They schedule so hard, they never have a bad RPI



Only 3 schools in this league are trending down; UCONN, ECU and USF.

All 3 have or will have new coaches soon.

While I'd love to be in the big 12, at least we are making progress

 

[waterhead]

The PAC 12 and WAC ones are. I'm just excited to sit around the sportsbook and bet on games. Both times I've gone before UC has lost on a 3 at the buzzer the first day (West Va and UConn). Here's to hoping for a better result!

The last time I went to Vegas to bet on BB was when we played UCLA in 2002. I lost some big money and don't want to try it again...lol! I have been back since but only to lose money playing tables. I prefer losing money on tables to losing money on my team. Hard for me to bet against them...and my heart usually wins over my head...lol!

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Just booked a Vegas trip for a buddy's bachelor party on conference tournament weekend. Oh yeah!

Try the sports book at the red rock. I think you'll like it. It's the only place I stay when I go to Vegas

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

The last time I went to Vegas to bet on BB was when we played UCLA in 2002. I lost some big money and don't want to try it again...lol! I have been back since but only to lose money playing tables. I prefer losing money on tables to losing money on my team. Hard for me to bet against them...and my heart usually wins over my head...lol!

You just came to grips with why it's so tough to win betting on sporting events.

 

[sedziobs]

I won't hear any arguments that says the league isn't improving.

The fact that teams are canablizing each other on the road shows as much. While its top heavy with elite teams, the middle is really improved.

The conference RPI shows improvement from last year. Despite being ranked 7th again, the rating has improved from 5242 to 5437. Last year we were way behind the top 6 (259 points behind). This year we're only 160 behind. That's a significant difference. And when you consider that we have two teams around RPI 300 dragging us down, the middle and top are comparable to the Big Ten and PAC12.