Bracketology

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What seed will UC get?

  • 1-2

    Votes: 9 14.5%
  • 3

    Votes: 27 43.5%
  • 4

    Votes: 15 24.2%
  • 5

    Votes: 9 14.5%
  • 6

    Votes: 2 3.2%
  • 7 or worse

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    62
Obviously this will change 17 times before the tournament but seeing X's draw infuriates me. And no one should be happy to have MSU as a 3 seed in their bracket (however if they get their head out of their ass they could vault to a 1).

A UVA/UC matchup would be fantastic to watch. First to 50 wins. Cant wait for March.

To me, MSU seems like one of those teams people keep waiting for to really impress them but they simply don't. They are like a better version of Arizona. Yeah, they're good, but not great, in my opinion.
 
Anyone else think its odd they put 4 of the top 10 defenses in basketball in the same bracket?

Its almost like they want to protect the pretty offensive teams from having to play all out wars with good defensive teams.

I did notice that. I know it's not finalized by any means but when they do things like that it's hard to take them seriously.
 
It's pretty easy to take them seriously if you're not seeking out things to complain about. I think the bracket they released is justifiable in every respect. They used the criteria that they established last year. I don't think anything about the bracket is particularly surprising, which to me is a good thing.
 
To me, MSU seems like one of those teams people keep waiting for to really impress them but they simply don't. They are like a better version of Arizona. Yeah, they're good, but not great, in my opinion.


yes but when you have a team with talent like that and they do get it going when they play you, you're in for a long day.


extremely talented teams that have underachieved a bit aren't teams I wanted to get matched up with (although lets get real, if 24-3 and 6 on kenpom is underachieving, that team is freaking scary).


and they don't have any regular season games really to boost that seed so whoever gets put in their bracket is gonna have a top 5 team to deal with.
 
yes but when you have a team with talent like that and they do get it going when they play you, you're in for a long day.


extremely talented teams that have underachieved a bit aren't teams I wanted to get matched up with (although lets get real, if 24-3 and 6 on kenpom is underachieving, that team is freaking scary).


and they don't have any regular season games really to boost that seed so whoever gets put in their bracket is gonna have a top 5 team to deal with.

I think we will have problems with all the blue bloods for that reason. They have the best talent and athletes there are. No matter how good our team is, that's hard to deal with. Even a team like UK, could be hard to score on. I think we beat them but still could create issues.
 
Anyone else think its odd they put 4 of the top 10 defenses in basketball in the same bracket?

Its almost like they want to protect the pretty offensive teams from having to play all out wars with good defensive teams.

Even if there were some behind the scenes adjustments going on to create some drama...I don't think there would be any reason to do it with an early season release. Plenty of things will change between now and selection Sunday. Why would the committee want to create unnecessary questions right now? It would serve no purpose IMO.

I would chalk it up to coincidence.
 
To me, MSU seems like one of those teams people keep waiting for to really impress them but they simply don't. They are like a better version of Arizona. Yeah, they're good, but not great, in my opinion.

True, but i don't wanna be in the same bracket if/when they decide to figure it out.
 
Unsurprisingly, we're up to a 2 seed on bracketmatrix. Wichita St is a 6, Houston is a 10, UCLA is an 11. Temple is the 3rd team out, and Miss St is the 5th team out.
 
It's interesting that some bracketologists are ignoring the NCAA bracket preview. For instance, Lunardi has Florida instead of Oklahoma as a 4 seed. That doesn't make much sense to me, if the goal is to predict what the selection committee will do. Some have an automated algorithm, or predict results for the rest of the year. But if you're predicting the bracket using current resumes (as Lunardi does), why would you not match the committee's own bracket?
 
It's interesting that some bracketologists are ignoring the NCAA bracket preview. For instance, Lunardi has Florida instead of Oklahoma as a 4 seed. That doesn't make much sense to me, if the goal is to predict what the selection committee will do. Some have an automated algorithm, or predict results for the rest of the year. But if you're predicting the bracket using current resumes (as Lunardi does), why would you not match the committee's own bracket?

he figured his stuff doesn't really match the committee at the end of the year, so why start now!
 
This Jay Bilas comment is getting a lot of coverage:
A road win over Rider is valued the same as a home win over Villanova. Both are Quadrant 1 wins.
Jay is simply wrong. Two teams being in the same quadrant does not mean they are valued the same. It just means they passed the first sorting algorithm together. RPI Groups are meant to be used as aggregates, not to analyze individual games. Over an entire season, Group records generally are a good unbiased way to initially rank teams. If a team has only Group 1 wins that are of similar quality to @Rider, then there is a problem. But realistically, everyone's Group 1 games will be a mixture of teams in the top, middle and bottom of the Group. Complaining about the extremes is shortsighted. The new system is way better than the old one.
 
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This Jay Bilas comment is getting a lot of coverage:

Jay is simply wrong. Two teams being in the same quadrant does not mean they are valued the same. It just means they passed the first sorting algorithm together. RPI Groups are meant to be used as aggregates, not to analyze individual games. Over an entire season, Group records generally are a good unbiased way to initially rank teams. If a team has only Group 1 wins that are of similar quality to @Rider, then there is a problem. But realistically, everyone's Group 1 games will be a mixture of teams in the top, middle and bottom of the Group. Complaining about the extremes is shortsighted. The new system is way better than the old one.

Lots of that on social media. I agree with you the more I think about it. No matter the cutoff, you'll be able to say "How can Villanova count the same as _______".
 
This Jay Bilas comment is getting a lot of coverage:

Jay is simply wrong. Two teams being in the same quadrant does not mean they are valued the same. It just means they passed the first sorting algorithm together. RPI Groups are meant to be used as aggregates, not to analyze individual games. Over an entire season, Group records generally are a good unbiased way to initially rank teams. If a team has only Group 1 wins that are of similar quality to @Rider, then there is a problem. But realistically, everyone's Group 1 games will be a mixture of teams in the top, middle and bottom of the Group. Complaining about the extremes is shortsighted. The new system is way better than the old one.



but to his point, using the rpi for the quadrants is a problem because the rpi is such a bad metric at determining how good your team is. buffalo and rider have no business being quadrant 1 wins.


if you applied the same rules for each quadrant and applied it to kenpom, then i think that tells a much clearer picture of how good your wins are.


his problem is with the rpi.
 
his problem is with the rpi.
I understand his main position, and I agree that RPI is vastly inferior to Kenpom. I think he's overreacting and misleading people though. If you replaced Rider with Fresno St, you have the same problem with Kenpom.
 
I understand his main position, and I agree that RPI is vastly inferior to Kenpom. I think he's overreacting and misleading people though. If you replaced Rider with Fresno St, you have the same problem with Kenpom.

but didn't the committee show that they kinda just go by the overall group 1 and 2 wins and didn't really dig too far into where within the group they were?
 
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