Our general seeding has stabilized now so we can at least look at what could impact us. The top 5 teams are pretty solid. Teams 6-10 seem to be on their own tier as well barring a meltdown by Arizona/Gonzaga.
That leaves a lot of teams in the midwest fighting for 2-3 seeds, 4-4 seeds as well as preferable sites/regions. Those teams as now would be Michigan St., Minnesota, Ohio St, UC, Butler. New Mex is in that same mix for seeding, but obviously wouldn't care about the same locations.
If we can make it to the top 2 of that group, we likely can get a 3 seed and hopefully Dayton. It's hard to imagine us getting any higher than that.
Short of that, 4/5 is by far the most likely and it almost guarantees we start in Austin or San Jose.
As far as a likely rd32 opponent, we'd obviously be looking at facing other 4/5 teams. Of that group, we can't play Marquette, Pitt, GTown, and likely wouldn't play NMex. The most likely opponents would probably be the other B10 teams like Minnesota or MSU. Smaller conference teams like Butler or Creighton are also possible.