Computer Numbers/Bracketology Thread

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Losing to Houston is not as devastating RPI-wise as losing to Memphis was. Houston is fighting a perception problem right now.

I honestly don't believe, outside of losing their last 2 and then losing first round of the conf. tourney, that UC has a lot to worry about EXCEPT for seeding. When the committee looks deep inside the resume they'll see the extremely close losses, respectable road loss to X, etc.

Win out and win the conf. tourney and a 6-7 seed is not out of the question IMO. What the hell do I know though, throw it up and let the players decide it. Been in their hands all year long and it still is. You're better than UH, should be better than SMU at home, good enough to win the AAC tournament.
 
The big thing about the Houston game RPI wise isn't what it would drop us to if we lose (Because we would stay quite similar) but it would be losing the bump we get for the top 75 road win. That's at least a 10 spot jump and a RPI of 40 looks a lot better than an RPI of 52.

This is a huge game for us to win and keeps us in second in the conference tourney.
 
tonka said:
If we win both games this week and then win the AAC tournament, how high of a seed do you think we can get?
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6 seed. I like our chances of avoiding the 8/9 range right now. I think about the only scenario that lands us in that range is losing to SMU and Houston and then winning the AAC tourney... not a particularly likely path.

Pending what other teams do, it's close to this...

SMU W + Hou W + AAC champ = 6 seed
1 win + AAC Champ = 7 seed
no wins + AAC Champ = 8/9 seed
2 wins + anything but a loss to UCF = 7 seed
1 win + anything but a loss to Memphis = Please no Dayton
1 win + loss to Memphis = Please Dayton - it's close pending other teams
no wins + conf final loss = Please Dayton - it's close pending other teams
no wins + less = NIT
 
Well here is where we stand going into the last week of the season

21-8 (11-5) @Houston, vs. SMU
3rd in AAC (2nd seed for Conf. Tourny)
RPI 52, SOS 85.
AP- 32nd (4 votes)
KenPom- 30
Sagarin- 30
BPI- 25
Off eff. rank (KenPom)- 96th
Def eff. rank (KenPom)- 5th
Bracket Matrix average 10.04 (3rd ranked 10th seed) in 70/77 brackets

In all honesty I think we are sitting the prettiest of all the remaining AAC teams for the Bubble. UCONN and Tulsa really hurt themselves this weekend and Temple's resume is average (minus the trump over us with the sweep).

We have two tough games remaining and if we win both will have very nice metrics, including an RPI in the low 30s and other ratings in the low 20s and be looked at as a team coming into the tournament hot. A loss in 1 of the next two games doesn't kill us as even Houston on the road is a game vs a top 75 RPI team.

I wont feel comfortable unless we manage to win our next two, which is a tall order for the guys to pull off, but if they do I don't think we'll be sweating come Selection Sunday, barring a terrible showing in the first round game. Lose both? And well I think that we would have to win the Conf. Tourney.

The stress is gonna kill me
 
Bearcatboy said:
No need to think about that....
Click to expand...

Why? Because we need to stay focused and just worry about Houston? We're a bunch of guys on a message board that just talk about the Bearcats. I don't see the harm in thinking what our seed could be.
 
ucswais said:
6 seed. I like our chances of avoiding the 8/9 range right now. I think about the only scenario that lands us in that range is losing to SMU and Houston and then winning the AAC tourney... not a particularly likely path.

Pending what other teams do, it's close to this...

SMU W + Hou W + AAC champ = 6 seed
1 win + AAC Champ = 7 seed
no wins + AAC Champ = 8/9 seed
2 wins + anything but a loss to UCF = 7 seed
1 win + anything but a loss to Memphis = Please no Dayton
1 win + loss to Memphis = Please Dayton - it's close pending other teams
no wins + conf final loss = Please Dayton - it's close pending other teams
no wins + less = NIT
Click to expand...

This is really good. I tend to believe you are correct in pretty much every assessment.
 
tonka said:
Why? Because we need to stay focused and just worry about Houston? We're a bunch of guys on a message board that just talk about the Bearcats. I don't see the harm in thinking what our seed could be.
Click to expand...

Because we are going to be lucky to win the next 2 and your talking about winning 5 in a row, not happening.....
 
Bubble Games Results Today:
Florida falls to Kentucky at home- Gators are in real trouble now

Vanderbilt beats Tennessee- Vandy is in good shape all of a sudden.

Clemson falls to Virginia at home- Tigers fringe bubble hopes have faded

Dayton wins at Richmond- Flyers aren't on bubble but losing this would have put them there.

Georgia Tech falls to Louisville- Yellow Jackets would have been interesting with a win, they're done now

George Washington beats George Mason- couldn't lose that one, still outside looking in

Arkansas Little Rock beats Arkansas State- they avenge their bad loss earlier, that loss is probably keeping them from being a lock, IMO.

LSU vs Missouri- LSU needs to hold up, up big most of the night
 
tonka said:
Even after last night's loss, Lunardi still has UC in the tournament as an #11 seed. We are the last team with a bye. We would get Texas and then Utah.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Click to expand...

After last night it's tough to be optimistic but it is a do or die type of game at home. If we win I would typically hope for a 10 seed rather than an 8 or 9 but this year I don't see a big difference in the 1 and 2 seeds.

I would prefer winning out and hoping for a 7 but that's a pipe dream after last night.
 
waterhead said:
After last night it's tough to be optimistic but it is a do or die type of game at home. If we win I would typically hope for a 10 seed rather than an 8 or 9 but this year I don't see a big difference in the 1 and 2 seeds.

I would prefer winning out and hoping for a 7 but that's a pipe dream after last night.
Click to expand...
NTS my friend how does the SMU win affect our numbers? Thanks in advance.
 

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