Games of Importance for UC's Resume

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something i was thinking about. currently we are 4-2 vs group 1 and 3-0 vs group 2.


does 4-1 vs group 1 and 3-1 vs group 2 look better to the committee?



i am honestly not sure, since we lost to florida is it better for them to stay in group 1?


it reminds me of a few years ago when we lost to uconn in that 4 OT game. that win pushed them into the top 50 in rpi so it added 3 top 50 rpi games to our resume of which we won 2.


just random thoughts that go through my head.
 
Hard to say. There's definitely a human element that is unpredictable. I think 4-2 Group 1 and 3-0 Group 2 looks better, but I'm not on the committee.
 
Second straight day of no meaningful games, so how about a resume update?

Currently, we are 4-2 in Group 1 with wins over Buffalo (29), at Temple (46), at UCF (55), at UCLA (64); and losses at Xavier (4), and Florida (24).

Rpiforecast projects all of those to stay in Group 1, plus adding these games: at SMU, at Houston, Wichita St, at Wichita St.

Personally, I think UCF is going to struggle to stay in the top 75 after losing Tacko Fall for the season. UCLA is going through a tough stretch, but they should stay top 75 if they just win their five remaining home games. So I think we will end the year with at least three Group 1 wins, with the possibility of adding up to four more.

From this point, every game but two is expected to be Group 1 or Group 2. The exceptions are home games against UCONN and Tulsa.
 
sedziobs said:
Second straight day of no meaningful games, so how about a resume update?

Currently, we are 4-2 in Group 1 with wins over Buffalo (29), at Temple (46), at UCF (55), at UCLA (64); and losses at Xavier (4), and Florida (24).

Rpiforecast projects all of those to stay in Group 1, plus adding these games: at SMU, at Houston, Wichita St, at Wichita St.

Personally, I think UCF is going to struggle to stay in the top 75 after losing Tacko Fall for the season. UCLA is going through a tough stretch, but they should stay top 75 if they just win their five remaining home games. So I think we will end the year with at least three Group 1 wins, with the possibility of adding up to four more.

From this point, every game but two is expected to be Group 1 or Group 2. The exceptions are home games against UCONN and Tulsa.
Click to expand...

I think our resume is respectable but extremely fragile.


Most people are putting WSU as a 6 seed after the 2 losses. It just shows that if you win every game in this league you will get respect, but if you start dropping them, you lose it much quicker than you got it....
 
sedziobs said:
Personally, I think UCF is going to struggle to stay in the top 75 after losing Tacko Fall for the season.
Click to expand...

it really is a shame for that school. a real shot at the tournament coming into the season and lose your best player for the first half of the season and 2nd best player as soon as the first guy returns. just brutal.
 
cincrulz11 said:
it really is a shame for that school. a real shot at the tournament coming into the season and lose your best player for the first half of the season and 2nd best player as soon as the first guy returns. just brutal.
Click to expand...

Not to mention Dawkins out all year and who would have been another double figure scorer.
 
justinhub2003 said:
I think our resume is respectable but extremely fragile.


Most people are putting WSU as a 6 seed after the 2 losses. It just shows that if you win every game in this league you will get respect, but if you start dropping them, you lose it much quicker than you got it....
Click to expand...

Yep very fragile. Can't afford any bad losses at all.
 
Tuesday Jan 23rd 2018

Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo
7pm ESPN3
Buffalo at RPI 28. 89% chance to win.

Mississippi St @ Kentucky
9pm ESPN
Miss St RPI 75, right at the Group 2 cut line. 22% chance to win.
 
sedziobs said:
Tuesday Jan 23rd 2018

Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo
7pm ESPN3
Buffalo at RPI 28. 89% chance to win.

Mississippi St @ Kentucky
9pm ESPN
Miss St RPI 75, right at the Group 2 cut line. 22% chance to win.
Click to expand...

Buffalo is killing it for us. How in the world does that thing spit them out at #28?
 
Avoiding 200+ teams at home will do wonders for your RPI. Buffalo has only played two. UC, Michigan St, West Virginia and Texas Tech have all played at least six 200+ home games, which is why our RPIs are much worse than the resumes would indicate.
 
sedziobs said:
Tuesday Jan 23rd 2018

Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo
7pm ESPN3
Buffalo at RPI 28. 89% chance to win.

Mississippi St @ Kentucky
9pm ESPN
Miss St RPI 75, right at the Group 2 cut line. 22% chance to win.
Click to expand...
Kenpom predicted Buffalo 82-68. Actual score was 83-69. Buffalo falls one spot to RPI 29.

Miss St loses, RPI falls to 78.
 
sedziobs said:
Kenpom predicted Buffalo 82-68. Actual score was 83-69. Buffalo falls one spot to RPI 29.

Miss St loses, RPI falls to 78.
Click to expand...

Much like us Buffalo is slated to win all remaining games but 1...and picked to lose by 1 in that game.

I hope they do it. Projected RPI would be 25 or so
 
Yep. They're projected to stay top 50 even if they lose 4 more games. Looking like a solid Group 1 win.
 
Wednesday Jan 24th 2018

South Carolina @ Florida
7pm SEC Network
Florida looking like a safe Group 1 loss, at RPI 26. They would need to go 5-7 or worse to drop out of the top 50. 82% chance to win.

Nevada @ Wyoming
11pm ESPNU
Wyoming at RPI 74. Need to finish 7-5 to stay top 100. 24% chance to win.
 
sedziobs said:
Wednesday Jan 24th 2018

South Carolina @ Florida
7pm SEC Network
Florida looking like a safe Group 1 loss, at RPI 26. They would need to go 5-7 or worse to drop out of the top 50. 82% chance to win.

Nevada @ Wyoming
11pm ESPNU
Wyoming at RPI 74. Need to finish 7-5 to stay top 100. 24% chance to win.
Click to expand...

Any chance to pull what Wyoming's RPI is with a win? Nevada is an at-large team right now, would be REALLY nice to have Wyoming get some pub with a win.
 
kskenyon4 said:
Any chance to pull what Wyoming's RPI is with a win?
Click to expand...
Wyoming would move up to about 53 with a win (depends on other games of course). They would need to finish the season 10-2 to be top 50 for a Group 1 win. RPI forecast says there's a 0.91% chance of that happening.
 
Alum2013 said:
Xavier played and won today against 19th ranked Seton Hall. Not sure if that does anything for us.
Click to expand...
Xavier plays again today. I don't mention them because (1) they will finish top 75 even if they lose every remaining game and (2) I don't like to talk about them.
 

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