Games of Importance for UC's Resume

[waterhead]

How the hell did we lose to Florida...that's starting to look like a bad loss, or at best a meh loss

We played awful. We would have been beat by half the teams in our conference playing like we did that day.

 

[cincrulz11]

We were less sure of our identity back then I feel like. Coming off that Xavier loss, it was bad timing for that game. I wish we could've beat Miss St first and got our groove back a little.

and the ole 2 games in 2 weeks thing. we looked like a team that was rusty. tons of mistakes that we don't usually make.


i hope in the future the schedule doesn't give so much time off between all the big games.

 

[sedziobs]

Sunday Feb 4th 2018

Tulsa @ South Florida
1pm ESPN3
Tulsa at RPI 105. Mostly a lost cause, but they have an outside chance at going 7-1 to get into the top 75. Not impossible with their easy schedule (rpiforecast says 6% chance). 79% chance to beat USF.

Temple @ Tulane
3pm ESPNews
Temple at RPI 42. Need to finish 7-1 for top 30 or 3-5 for top 75. 54% chance to win.

Tulsa wins, improves to 100.
Temple wins, improves to 34. Tulane falls to 130.

 

[Cartel]

Tulsa wins, improves to 100.
Temple wins, improves to 34. Tulane falls to 130.

Temple may end up being a tourney team. They have got some great wins.

 

[cincrulz11]

Temple may end up being a tourney team. They have got some great wins.

and some extremely bad losses. GW, tulane at home, memphis at home, la salle.


and only 2 big games left, at wichita st and home vs houston.

 

[sedziobs]

They are certainly making it interesting. Three bracketologists have them in the field. I think they have a better resume than Western Kentucky, who is the second team out. I would put them about even with Syracuse, the first team out. The last team in, Marquette, has the same record as Temple at 13-10. How will the committee weigh very good wins against very bad losses? Popular opinion here seems to be that "marquee" wins are important. Well, Temple has them.

 

[waterhead]

They are certainly making it interesting. Three bracketologists have them in the field. I think they have a better resume than Western Kentucky, who is the second team out. I would put them about even with Syracuse, the first team out. The last team in, Marquette, has the same record as Temple at 13-10. How will the committee weigh very good wins against very bad losses? Popular opinion here seems to be that "marquee" wins are important. Well, Temple has them.

I seem to remember an interview saying they didn't start docking for bad losses unless you had 3-4 or more. Then it can hurt you. I would imagine a bad loss is about anything outside of column 1 or 2. This is of course after taking into consideration column 1 and 2 wins.

I don't know how both teams stack up against that line of thinking exactly...or even how much the bad losses hurt against good wins.

 

[sedziobs]

I think every game matters. I don't buy the idea that one or two bad losses can be ignored. I also don't buy the idea that marquee wins are any more important than the RPI number itself indicates. Meaning, I don't think they're in a category by themselves that give you bonus points. But I'm not on the committee.

I agree that "bad losses" are in Groups 3 and 4. Temple has four bad losses. Syracuse has two. Western Kentucky has five. Marquette has none. Temple's quality wins are better than any of those teams.

 

[sedziobs]

No important games today, time instead for a resume update. We picked up a couple of Group 2 wins in the last week. We are now 4-2 in Group 1, 5-0 in Group 2, and zero bad losses.

According to rpiforecast, Miss St is expected to drop out of Group 2 by the end of the season, but all of the rest are expected to remain in their respective groups. However, I have my doubts that UCF will be able to stay in the top 75 after losing Tacko. But UConn may be able to move up if they win at UCF this week. Still lots of basketball left.

Projected remaining Group 1 games: @SMU, @Houston, Wichita St, @Wichita St
Projected remaining Group 2 games: Houston, @UConn, UCF, @Tulane

Weekly resume update:

UC picked up another pair of Group 2 wins in the last week, pushing our record to 4-2 in Group 1, 7-0 in Group 2, zero bad losses.

Projected remaining Group 1 games: @SMU, @Houston, Wichita St, @Wichita St
Projected remaining Group 2 games: UCF, @Tulane

Quite a few teams are projected to finish right around the 75/135 cut lines. UCF's mean projection is now 77, although the median is 74. Tulane's median projection is 131. For Memphis, it is 148. For Miss St, it is 83. Houston has a 45% chance to get into the top 30. Temple has about a 9% chance to finish top 30. So quite a lot to be decided over the next month.

 

[sedziobs]

Tuesday Feb 6th 2018

Alabama @ Mississippi St
7pm SEC Network
Miss St at RPI 57. Need to finish 4-4 for top 75. 59% chance to win.

Buffalo @ Central Michigan
7pm
Buffalo at RPI 32. Need to finish 5-3 for top 50. 66% chance to win.

Wichita St @ Memphis
9pm CBS Sports
Wichita at RPI 28. Needs to finish 4-4 for top 30 (barely). 79% chance to win. Memphis needs to finish 4-4 for top 135.

 

[sedziobs]

Mississippi St wins, improves to 53.
Buffalo wins, improves to 27.
Wichita St wins, improves to 24.

 

[cincrulz11]

I dont have a specific game to add here, but we need to pull hard for temple the rest of the way. They're at 34 in rpi, if we could get 2 group 1 wins out of them it would be great.


and they have the schedule to get there. @ Wichita state, houston, ucf, at uconn, at tulsa.

 

[justinhub2003]

Miss St is on a nice little 5 game run.

Gets tougher for them though in the next few games, would love to see them finish the last few games with a winning record

 

[sedziobs]

I dont have a specific game to add here, but we need to pull hard for temple the rest of the way. They're at 34 in rpi, if we could get 2 group 1 wins out of them it would be great.

and they have the schedule to get there. @ Wichita state, houston, ucf, at uconn, at tulsa.

rpiforecast says they need to go 6-1 to finish in the top 30. Of course, that's before any conference tournament games, so they could potentially get there with a couple losses.

 

[cincrulz11]

rpiforecast says they need to go 6-1 to finish in the top 30. Of course, that's before any conference tournament games, so they could potentially get there with a couple losses.

are they likely to do it, of course not, but i never dreamed they'd win at smu or beat wichita state at home.


just never can tell with that temple team, thats why im never comfortable going into a game with them.


but man im envious of some of their wins this year.

 

[justinhub2003]

are they likely to do it, of course not, but i never dreamed they'd win at smu or beat wichita state at home.


just never can tell with that temple team, thats why im never comfortable going into a game with them.


but man im envious of some of their wins this year.

I just pencilled them in to losing @WSU on RPI forecast but winning ECU, @South Florida, Houston, UCF, @uconn, @tulsa

that would leave them with an RPI of 28

 

[sedziobs]

I just pencilled them in to losing @WSU on RPI forecast but winning ECU, @South Florida, Houston, UCF, @uconn, @tulsa

that would leave them with an RPI of 28

FYI - You don't have to actually go through that process. rpiforecast tells you the expected RPI for each record. The way the RPI works, it doesn't matter which game they lose. Going 6-1 in any combination will get them to 28 or so.

 

[sedziobs]

Wednesday Feb 7th 2018

LSU @ Florida
6:30pm SEC Network
Florida at RPI 49. Need to finish 5-3 for top 50. 73% chance to win.

South Florida @ UConn
7pm ESPNU
UConn at RPI 96. Need to finish 6-2 for top 75 or 2-6 for top 135. 88% chance to win.

East Carolina @ Temple
7pm ESPNews
Temple at RPI 34. Need to finish 6-1 for top 30 or 2-5 for top 75. 95% chance to win.

Utah St @ Wyoming
9pm
Wyoming at RPI 69. Need to finish 4-4 (maybe 3-5) for top 100. 65% chance to win.

 

[waterhead]

Wednesday Feb 7th 2018

LSU @ Florida
6:30pm SEC Network
Florida at RPI 49. Need to finish 5-3 for top 50. 73% chance to win.

South Florida @ UConn
7pm ESPNU
UConn at RPI 96. Need to finish 6-2 for top 75 or 2-6 for top 135. 88% chance to win.

East Carolina @ Temple
7pm ESPNews
Temple at RPI 34. Need to finish 6-1 for top 30 or 2-5 for top 75. 95% chance to win.

Utah St @ Wyoming
9pm
Wyoming at RPI 69. Need to finish 4-4 (maybe 3-5) for top 100. 65% chance to win.

The weird thing is...the way our schedules are back loaded we still have our biggest games in front of us. Some of the middle teams have played some of their harder games already. Houston has already played UC and WSU 3 times total. Temple has played us twice already and WSU once.

We have 4 remaining games with WSU, Houston, and SMU and 3 are on the road.

 

[sedziobs]

Florida wins, steady at 48.
UConn wins, falls a bit to 99.
Temple wins, steady at 35.
Wyoming wins, steady at 67.