NCAA Tournament

[HExus]

AAC tournament:

I don't see many seed upsets. Maybe 7v8, or any of the top 4 over one another. There is a pretty big step off after SMU and UC, and an even bigger one after that. Unless Ucon all of a sudden figures it out I doubt we will be surprised. It will be UC or SMU that win the tourny, and probably both playing in the title game. I could see UCF or Houston sneaking in but I doubt it. I think UCF caught UC sleeping. They will come to play.

NCAA:

64 - Horrible disappointment
32 - Disappointment
16 - OK / Success - Likely outcome - Build into next year.
8 - Probable ceiling - Excellent
4 - Perfect / outstanding - Extremely unlikely.
Championship - We can dream right?

If UC makes 8 or higher thats a slam dunk success. And I think this was be most ideal as its the magic number we haven't witnessed in so long. Just can't get past 16.

I don't have much faith they will get to the elite 8, and if they do I think thats probably a hard ceiling. Thats the high bar for this team imo. Not that its impossible.

Id be ok with 16 and that is probably more realistic.

Another 2nd round exit would leave a bad taste in my mouth going into next year (which regardless, I think will be a fun year).

1st round exit and its just unacceptable. Cronin haters will have ammunition.

 

[cincyguy13]

If we keep getting to there, we will have to make a run sooner or later.

 

[cincyguy13]

I will be disappointed anytime we lose. I hope for atleast a sweet 16 run. someting to build on

 

[HExus]

I agree. I'll be disappointed when they lose too. But just stepping back and trying not to base anything on my personal hopes and desires.

Realistically this is a team that should find a place in the sweet 16, but you can't really be upset with a loss after that.

I'll be upset when the reds are out of contention by june too, but ill still be hoping.

 

[ervins84]

I'm not prepared to evaluate a season entirely off the tournament. Especially when it's a one game sample size where matchups/bad draws/incorrectly seeded teams play a big role.

I mean Wichita St is probably going to get a seed in the 6-11 range. Yet according to kpom and gambling lines, would be somewhere between a 1-2 pt favorite or 1-2 ptdog vs the following teams that will be 1-4 seeds:

UK, KU, Fla, Lville, Baylor, Duke, UCLA, Arz, Oregon, and probably a 3-5 point vs us.

I mean if we somehow got a 3 seed (probably not gonna happen) and got them as our 6 seed, we would be the underdog according to the gambling lines if we meet in the 2nd Rd.


IMO this season has been and is a success regardless how they finish.


All that said, it's gonna hurt if they go out in Rd 1 or 2 again, even if they get a crappy draw. And yes I know the tournament matters, but let's not overreact to it. Keep putting together seasons like this and eventually it will break your way.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

How disappointed I am if/when we lose will depend on how we play, as well as how we do in the AAC Tournament. If we flame out in that, then lose right away in NCAA, it won't totally ruin the season, but it'll be pretty disappointing for sure.

 

[HExus]

Yeah thats a pretty fair way of looking at it really. Some times you get a bad draw.

Its still going to be disappointing to me if they can't at least crack the sweet 16 regardless of the draw.

This is a team that can and should be anyone that will see at the seed they will face in the first 2 rounds. We will have to see what the situation is at the time though.

This is a team that can beat any team in the field, but I don't think its one that can win 6 close games in a row against solid teams. Because you know the way the cats play they will be close.

 

[waterhead]

I'm not prepared to evaluate a season entirely off the tournament. Especially when it's a one game sample size where matchups/bad draws/incorrectly seeded teams play a big role.

I mean Wichita St is probably going to get a seed in the 6-11 range. Yet according to kpom and gambling lines, would be somewhere between a 1-2 pt favorite or 1-2 ptdog vs the following teams that will be 1-4 seeds:

UK, KU, Fla, Lville, Baylor, Duke, UCLA, Arz, Oregon, and probably a 3-5 point vs us.

I mean if we somehow got a 3 seed (probably not gonna happen) and got them as our 6 seed, we would be the underdog according to the gambling lines if we meet in the 2nd Rd.


IMO this season has been and is a success regardless how they finish.


All that said, it's gonna hurt if they go out in Rd 1 or 2 again, even if they get a crappy draw. And yes I know the tournament matters, but let's not overreact to it. Keep putting together seasons like this and eventually it will break your way.

Good point! Matchup is a big deal I agree. Maybe we should root for the 5 seed instead of the 4. The committee would probably stick us with the hardest 13 seed as opposed to an easier 12 seed (in terms of Kenpom and other metrics). Depending on how that shakes out...we might be better off. Obviously the 5-12 matchup has some stigma to it...but I would rather get an appropriately seeded team (in terms of metrics) as opposed to a mid major with very high metrics.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Fun to kick all the possibilities around. Its why as a fan I am so happy we have a program that gives us this opportunity yearly. I root for the cats every game and I'm disappointed every time we lose. So unless we win it all I won't be as happy as I could be. That said, I do love filling out my bracket and seeing University of Cincinnati on the sheet. Not many fan bases have that pleasure.

 

[waterhead]

Fun to kick all the possibilities around. Its why as a fan I am so happy we have a program that gives us this opportunity yearly. I root for the cats every game and I'm disappointed every time we lose. So unless we win it all I won't be as happy as I could be. That said, I do love filling out my bracket and seeing University of Cincinnati on the sheet. Not many fan bases have that pleasure.

In terms of most of our NCAA recent appearances my analogy would be the term in a poker tournament "chip and a chair". That essentially means if you have 1 chip left and a chair at the table...you can win the tournament no matter how low your chances are. I like having at least one chip at the table as opposed to none!

This year I feel like we have at least a small stack of chips to play with as opposed to other years. Our sweet 16 team had a small stack of chips but the rest of our years were like having a "chip and a chair". Maybe we have a medium stack this year but I wouldn't call us "big stack". Biggest stack doesn't mean you will win either.

We have reason to have higher hopes this year is all I am saying. Next year we may be playing with an even bigger stack.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

In terms of most of our NCAA recent appearances my analogy would be the term in a poker tournament "chip and a chair". That essentially means if you have 1 chip left and a chair at the table...you can win the tournament no matter how low your chances are. I like having at least one chip at the table.

This year I feel like we have at least a small stack of chips to play with as opposed to other years. Our sweet 16 team had a small stack of chips but the rest of our years were like having a "chip and a chair". Maybe we have a medium stack this year but I wouldn't call us "big stack". Biggest stack doesn't mean you will win either.

We have reason to have higher hopes this year is all I am saying. Next year we may be playing with an even bigger stack.

A very good analogy. I like this years team as well. I would have liked to have had Gaary Clark healthy last year for the A St. Joe's game. Would have liked to see how we would have fared against Oregon.

 

[indydoug]

I agree. I'll be disappointed when they lose too. But just stepping back and trying not to base anything on my personal hopes and desires.

Realistically this is a team that should find a place in the sweet 16, but you can't really be upset with a loss after that.

I'll be upset when the reds are out of contention by june too, but ill still be hoping.

Realistically, if they don't win the conference tournament, they'll be a #5 seed and only be (likely) favored in the 1st game. They'll play a #4 in 2nd game, possibly WVU? hopefully they can make it to 2nd weekend

 

[GarradJ21]

Realistically, if they don't win the conference tournament, they'll be a #5 seed and only be (likely) favored in the 1st game. They'll play a #4 in 2nd game, possibly WVU? hopefully they can make it to 2nd weekend

Realistically, no one knows. Who knows what we will be or who we would play in the second round.

 

[cincycpaw]

I hear everyone about the tournament not being the only thing that makes a season successful....but it's a pretty big deal. It's why you play the season. So, while the season has been extremely enjoyable and the home winning streak is terrific, I still think this team has some work to do for the season as a whole to be considered a success.

This team failed to win the conference regular season...that would have made the season a success in my opinion.

This team can still win the conference tournament...that alone doesn't make the season a success but along with the home winning streak, finishing #2, beating Eggs, beating Iowa State on the road, etc it would make this season a success.

If they can't win the conference tournament, then they have to make the Sweet 16 for this season to be a success. Anything less, while a fun season, would be a disappointment in my opinion. And I do think a successful season is different than a fun season.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Realistically, no one knows. Who knows what we will be or who we would play in the second round.

Yeah bracketology isnt going to correctly tell you who we will play in the 2nd round. Especially the bracketology before conference tournaments.

 

[cincyguy13]

I hear everyone about the tournament not being the only thing that makes a season successful....but it's a pretty big deal. It's why you play the season. So, while the season has been extremely enjoyable and the home winning streak is terrific, I still think this team has some work to do for the season as a whole to be considered a success.

This team failed to win the conference regular season...that would have made the season a success in my opinion.

This team can still win the conference tournament...that alone doesn't make the season a success but along with the home winning streak, finishing #2, beating Eggs, beating Iowa State on the road, etc it would make this season a success.

If they can't win the conference tournament, then they have to make the Sweet 16 for this season to be a success. Anything less, while a fun season, would be a disappointment in my opinion. And I do think a successful season is different than a fun season.

The tourney is a big deal but it's random. A bad shooting night, or a couple bad foul calls and you can be done.

 

[IABearcat]

I know we all want sweet 16 or better, but to say sweet 16 is "realistic" is just not true.

UC has been hovering around 10-20 in the rankings and metrics all season. to make the sweet 16 UC is more than likely gonna have to beat a team that has been hovering around 10-20 in the rankings and metrics all year.

I will be disappointed if we don't make the sweet 16, but I won't be disappointed in the season as a whole (unless the team just doesn't show up in the round of 32 game).

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I know we all want sweet 16 or better, but to say sweet 16 is "realistic" is just not true.

UC has been hovering around 10-20 in the rankings and metrics all season. to make the sweet 16 UC is more than likely gonna have to beat a team that has been hovering around 10-20 in the rankings and metrics all year.

I will be disappointed if we don't make the sweet 16, but I won't be disappointed in the season as a whole (unless the team just doesn't show up in the round of 32 game).

Umm?

 

[IABearcat]

Umm?

Ok maybe I went a little far, but basically its gonna be a 50/50 shot in the Round of 32 to get to the Sweet 16.

 

[GarradJ21]

We just need to take this one game at a time. I know it's fun to start talking about second round matchups, but I have been hearing some great things about UNCW, Mid Tenn. St and others that can be possible first round matchups. I have all the confidence in the world we can win a game like that just saying anything can happen. Baylor didn't think they would be losing to Yale last year. I know we all know this but just wanted to reiterate that.

Also a 4 or 5 seed allows for a possible second round match against a Cinderella team. How sweet would that be! Give us some Xavier luck!

I have also heard people saying 3-6 seed range is basically the same. I think 3 is a big difference. It allows you to stay away from the 1, but the 6 seed could get upsetted by a 11 seed. Obviously the better seed you are the less likely for an upset, but I have a feeling a 3 seed getting upset to a 14 seed is a huge drop off from a 4/13 or 5/12. Does anyone know?

Regardless, I think we are all on the same page no matter what we are going to be a 4 or a 5. Unless upsetted on Friday.