I think Cincinnati is capable, as a program, of performing on the same level as, for example, Louisville. By this, I mean average SRS in the neighborhood of ~18. NCAA tournament bids are expected, and not used as the definitive measure of the program's success.
Historically, and I mean recent history, it's been proven by Huggins that this feat can be accomplished for a sustained period.
On the other hand, if we dive into the 80s, there is evidence that Cincinnati can completely drop off the map, like, for example, Houston.
I think the program is at a fragile state, being in this terrible conference (two bids), and a lot of people are scared to death that if Cronin left, the program would nosedive. It doesn't help that the regional competition has increased immensely in the past 15 years (compare Louisville, Xavier, Dayton, OSU, and Butler, 15 years ago to today).
It also doesn't help that Cronin appears to be a very ethical guy, when so many other programs are willing to tip toe the compliance foul line. I admire Mick on this issue. I wasn't a fan of why he got the Louisville job, but I understand: Working for Pitino is like the college basketball equivalent of being valedictorian from Harvard. His first loyalty is as provider for his family.
Also, we don't know to what extent the board is handcuffing Cronin. Is there an understanding that Cronin will not take risks on certain players with checkered pasts? He may be under certain pressures or influences we are not aware of.
A part of me was secretly hoping that Cronin would coach this weekend, because, if he was able to comeback and beat UK, it would be the story of the year, perhaps the last five years, in college basketball. He'd be an instant celebrity, and the program would be off-and-running. But, obviously, his long-term health is of much greater concern. Maybe, LD, who did a fantastic job with these guys, can pull off this miracle.