2016-2017 Season

[justinhub2003]

eFG%
Ellis
Career: 55%
SR Year: 54.7%

Washington
Career: 46.2%
SO Year: 48.3%

TS%
Ellis
Career: 58.5%
SR Year: 57.7%

Washington
Career: 48.2%
SO Year: 50.5%

Washington may have deeper range, but if he doesn't make tons of longer 2s and doesn't shoot many 3s, it doesn't do much good. Only 1 assist per 40 minutes his SO year too. Plus, 13.9 FGA/40 minutes, which would've only been behind Cobb last year.

But where I see a huge huge improvement in washington over Ellis is...
TORate (kenpom)
Ellis:
JR: 23.8
SR:23.2

Ellis has a pretty much minimum improvement in TOrate from JR to SR year

Washington on the other hand, had better rates as a freshman than Ellis had as a senior and improved year over year.
Washington:
Fresh: 18.8
Soph: 15.2


Gary Clark had an even lower TOrate than Washington at 13.9, so we could very well have two of the best Bigs at not turning the ball over in the country.



Speaking of TOrate. we might score an extra 8 points per game or at least put up an extran 5-10 shots a game extra just by not having Shaq Thomas and Ellis on the floor, 2 very TO prone players.

KJ has vastly improved, Evans is one of the best in the country, same for Caupain and then add in Clark and Washington and we have a Starting 5 that takes care of the ball with not a single player in the starting 5 that has an over 20 TOrate (KJ being the highest).

The bench is another story as will have a rookie, a TO prone Quadri moore, Justin Jenifer (who i think will improve) and a few unproven guys.

 

[justinhub2003]

This is nothing more than my own personal hunch, but I honestly expect very little out of Cumberland this year. It's based solely on his size. I'm not sure he will be able to defend Division 1 guards right away. I'm not sure he will be able to create high percentage shots with his lack of speed. I hope I'm wrong, but he looks like the type of player that might take to the 2nd or 3rd year before he makes any impact. If he was more of a traditional size guard with good speed and quickness, I would probably view him differently. I hope I'm wrong.

ESPN had this to say about him:

Who he reminds us of: He is built like former Bearcats standout Sean Kilpatrick and has that scorer's mentality. Kilpatrick developed over time in a system that predicates its success on player development. Cumberland is more advanced with his skill and body at the same stage. Both are attack-mode scoring guards who play a physical style of offense with skill.

 

[2bearcatdad]

ESPN had this to say about him:

Who he reminds us of: He is built like former Bearcats standout Sean Kilpatrick and has that scorer's mentality. Kilpatrick developed over time in a system that predicates its success on player development. Cumberland is more advanced with his skill and body at the same stage. Both are attack-mode scoring guards who play a physical style of offense with skill.

I won't bother to look up the numbers, but I remember SK as being pretty productive as a freshman. If Cumberland can give us about the same production as SK did early in his career; I'll take it.

 

[L-T]

SK struggled mightily on defense and with his ball skills for most of his career. But, he put it all together in his senior season and became a great player. That was his 5th year in the program. Where SK stood out was in his attitude and work ethic. Because of those two things, and because he was a so-so shooter even as a freshman, he was able to contribute a lot in spite of some pretty big liabilities. If I knew that Cumberland had SK's attitude and work ethic, I would have a different opinion of his likelihood to contribute early......and remember, SK's freshman year was actually his 2nd year in the program.....and I think he was 20 or 21 as a freshman.

 

[UCBEARCAT22]

I won't bother to look up the numbers, but I remember SK as being pretty productive as a freshman. If Cumberland can give us about the same production as SK did early in his career; I'll take it.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/sean-kilpatrick-1.html#players_per_game::none

If Cumberland can do anything close to what SK did his freshman year. Cronin will be very satisfied.

 

[#BearcatNation]

SK struggled mightily on defense and with his ball skills for most of his career. But, he put it all together in his senior season and became a great player. That was his 5th year in the program. Where SK stood out was in his attitude and work ethic. Because of those two things, and because he was a so-so shooter even as a freshman, he was able to contribute a lot in spite of some pretty big liabilities. If I knew that Cumberland had SK's attitude and work ethic, I would have a different opinion of his likelihood to contribute early......and remember, SK's freshman year was actually his 2nd year in the program.....and I think he was 20 or 21 as a freshman.

I think Cumberland has the work ethic...just by judging his Snapchat, it looks like he's in the gym nearly every day.

 

[justinhub2003]

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/sean-kilpatrick-1.html#players_per_game::none

If Cumberland can do anything close to what SK did his freshman year. Cronin will be very satisfied.

AND Kilpatrick played his first 3 years of those numbers in the Big East. Cumberland won't have to do that.

 

[L-T]

I think Cumberland has the work ethic...just by judging his Snapchat, it looks like he's in the gym nearly every day.

SK was still in the gym at 2 AM supposedly. I hope he has that drive.

 

[GarradJ21]

SK struggled mightily on defense and with his ball skills for most of his career. But, he put it all together in his senior season and became a great player. That was his 5th year in the program. Where SK stood out was in his attitude and work ethic. Because of those two things, and because he was a so-so shooter even as a freshman, he was able to contribute a lot in spite of some pretty big liabilities. If I knew that Cumberland had SK's attitude and work ethic, I would have a different opinion of his likelihood to contribute early......and remember, SK's freshman year was actually his 2nd year in the program.....and I think he was 20 or 21 as a freshman.

Watching highlights on Cumberland I am not real impressed, but he seems like a tough player. I can see where you are coming from. I think he will get his points though and do well at getting to the line. We shall see as far as his defense goes. He doesn't seem like the type of player that's going to drain 3s but when the game is over I can see us looking at the box score and say how did he get 10 - 15 points? I use to do that a lot with Kilpatrick. When it's all said and done I also believe he will be a solid 4 year player, but not sure how big of a year he will have as a freshman. He has a lot of hype probably most of any freshman that we have had in the last couple of years.

If KJ can give us 25 quality minutes and Cumberland 15 then we will be alright. We should be more concerned about our senior SG that will probably be the starter all year.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Watching highlights on Cumberland I am not real impressed, but he seems like a tough player. I can see where you are coming from. I think he will get his points though and do well at getting to the line. We shall see as far as his defense goes. He doesn't seem like the type of player that's going to drain 3s but when the game is over I can see us looking at the box score and say how did he get 10 - 15 points? I use to do that a lot with Kilpatrick. When it's all said and done I also believe he will be a solid 4 year player, but not sure how big of a year he will have as a freshman. He has a lot of hype probably most of any freshman that we have had in the last couple of years.

If KJ can give us 25 quality minutes and Cumberland 15 then we will be alright. We should be more concerned about our senior SG that will probably be the starter all year.

If Johnson plays that much more than Cumberland, we're in trouble.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

....and that is a really scary thought.

Mick did it "by design" though...LMAO

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

If Johnson plays that much more than Cumberland, we're in trouble.

Cumberland will back up the 2 and 3. He will play more then 15 minutes and KJ may still play 25 a game.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Cumberland will back up the 2 and 3. He will play more then 15 minutes and KJ may still play 25 a game.

How many times in Johnson's entire career has he given 25 quality minutes? Im not going to check, but I'd guess I can count on one hand. If we're expecting him to do that night in, night out, we are screwed. I think most are hoping for a ranked team all year, a conference championship contender, and actually winning multiple games in the postseason (which we haven't done the last 4 years). It sounds good in the offseason to talk about having a guy step up and make huge strides, but in Johnson's case I just don't think it's realistic. Good kid, good Bearcat, all the things we're supposed to say...but if he is relied on that heavily, I don't see good things happening for us. Johnson seemed to be much more comfortable last year coming off the bench, where he could play tough D and give us a lift that way...then if a couple shots fall, it's just gravy. Our bench this year is already thin and inexperienced, I wish the staff would sell him on the idea of still getting minutes, but more as the leader of the 2nd unit. He could use his experience and attitude as a SR to help bring the other fringe rotation guys along. Seems like he performs better without the pressure of being a starter as well. Jmo.

 

[GarradJ21]

How many times in Johnson's entire career has he given 25 quality minutes? Im not going to check, but I'd guess I can count on one hand. If we're expecting him to do that night in, night out, we are screwed. I think most are hoping for a ranked team all year, a conference championship contender, and actually winning multiple games in the postseason (which we haven't done the last 4 years). It sounds good in the offseason to talk about having a guy step up and make huge strides, but in Johnson's case I just don't think it's realistic. Good kid, good Bearcat, all the things we're supposed to say...but if he is relied on that heavily, I don't see good things happening for us. Johnson seemed to be much more comfortable last year coming off the bench, where he could play tough D and give us a lift that way...then if a couple shots fall, it's just gravy. Our bench this year is already thin and inexperienced, I wish the staff would sell him on the idea of still getting minutes, but more as the leader of the 2nd unit. He could use his experience and attitude as a SR to help bring the other fringe rotation guys along. Seems like he performs better without the pressure of being a starter as well. Jmo.

I mean i see where you are coming from but being a senior now and your backup is a freshman and Cumberland will sub for Evans like stated there's a very good chance Johnson will play 25 min. That's my point that we should be more worried about Johnson then probably anyone on our team. Looking at positives but let's not Chuck him up as a loss cause. He won that Houston game for us and hit the big shot against uconn. Truthfully if Cobb wasn't hitting it was better when Johnson was in anyways

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

How many times in Johnson's entire career has he given 25 quality minutes? Im not going to check, but I'd guess I can count on one hand. If we're expecting him to do that night in, night out, we are screwed. I think most are hoping for a ranked team all year, a conference championship contender, and actually winning multiple games in the postseason (which we haven't done the last 4 years). It sounds good in the offseason to talk about having a guy step up and make huge strides, but in Johnson's case I just don't think it's realistic. Good kid, good Bearcat, all the things we're supposed to say...but if he is relied on that heavily, I don't see good things happening for us. Johnson seemed to be much more comfortable last year coming off the bench, where he could play tough D and give us a lift that way...then if a couple shots fall, it's just gravy. Our bench this year is already thin and inexperienced, I wish the staff would sell him on the idea of still getting minutes, but more as the leader of the 2nd unit. He could use his experience and attitude as a SR to help bring the other fringe rotation guys along. Seems like he performs better without the pressure of being a starter as well. Jmo.

our season won't turn on KJ. Washington needs to be adequate on defense, Evans needs to step forward,Scott needs to be good backing up the 4, Quadri backing up the post is important,JJ spelling TC and Cumberland playing like he belongs are all big issues not to mention staying healthy. KJ will guard, knock down a few jumpers and hopefully take another step forward taking care of the ball. KJ doesn't need to be a star for us to win. Play good defense and hit a jumper or two to create some spacing. He will be a huge improvement over Cobb defensively. The question I have will Cumberland be a player? He will back up Evans and KJ. I'm hoping by season's end he will give us the same kind of production Evans did as a freshman.

 

[waterhead]

I would bet 25 minutes plus or minus 2.5 on KJ. We are too thin at the wing and he is a senior and plays D. Evans will get around 35 in games that count. Cumberland will average around 20 on the year.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

I would bet 25 minutes plus or minus 2.5 on KJ. We are too thin at the wing and he is a senior and plays D. Evans will get around 35 in games that count. Cumberland will average around 20 on the year.

I agree.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

our season won't turn on KJ. Washington needs to be adequate on defense, Evans needs to step forward,Scott needs to be good backing up the 4, Quadri backing up the post is important,JJ spelling TC and Cumberland playing like he belongs are all big issues not to mention staying healthy. KJ will guard, knock down a few jumpers and hopefully take another step forward taking care of the ball. KJ doesn't need to be a star for us to win. Play good defense and hit a jumper or two to create some spacing. He will be a huge improvement over Cobb defensively. The question I have will Cumberland be a player? He will back up Evans and KJ. I'm hoping by season's end he will give us the same kind of production Evans did as a freshman.

It just makes me nervous bc injury was the only reason Evans got the chance to show the kind of player he can be. I'd like Cumberland to have that chance just by playing well. We'll see if Cronin allows him to blossom, if it comes at the expense of a Senior.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

It just makes me nervous bc injury was the only reason Evans got the chance to show the kind of player he can be. I'd like Cumberland to have that chance just by playing well. We'll see if Cronin allows him to blossom, if it comes at the expense of a Senior.

No chance in hell.

 

[Bearcatboy]

If Johnson plays that much more than Cumberland, we're in trouble.

I don't see johnson playing more than 23 a game