2020 Bracketology

[cincrulz11]

I ran some scenarios on Torvik. According to his model, our season basically hinges on the game at Houston. If we win out, we are in. If we lose one more game to Wichita St, USF, or Temple, we are still barely in. If we lose at Houston, we are out. Might not be accurate, but that's what the model shows. Of course, that's before the effect of any bid stealers.

we are probably going to be 7-8 point underdogs at houston.

we've really played ourselves into a spot where we gotta win 4 in a row now or 3-4 in a row in the conference tournament.


not a fun spot to be.

 

[sedziobs]

Although brackretmatrix hasn't updated, individual updates are coming in. It's interesting to see how people interpret our strange 6-0 Q2 and four bad loss resume. Dave Ommen and Jerry Palm have us in the first four out. 131sports has us as the last team in. We're still one of the last four byes in Lunardi's bracket. So obviously bracketologists don't think our season is over.

 

[ervins84]

Although brackretmatrix hasn't updated, individual updates are coming in. It's interesting to see how people interpret our strange 6-0 Q2 and four bad loss resume. Dave Ommen and Jerry Palm have us in the first four out. 131sports has us as the last team in. We're still one of the last four byes in Lunardi's bracket. So obviously bracketologists don't think our season is over.

Projecting forward, the other issue is we're not exactly playing well. There's multiple games besides Houston left that we could easily lose that will not be good losses (usf, Temple), on top of the Wichita game easily being a loss. Losing 2-4 more games is well within the bounds of expected finishes.


I have no idea what will happen if we won every game except Houston, but at this point I have no reason to believe that is a realistic possibility.

 

[sedziobs]

Bracketmatrix updated. We're still clinging to an at-large spot, included in 43 of 85 brackets updated since Thursday. Georgetown is right behind us with 35, Purdue with 30, and Miss St with 29.

 

[justinhub2003]

This is not a troll. But we should add UCLA to the list of teams competing for the bubble


Just beat #18 Colorado at home:

 

[sedziobs]

Agreed. I'll start tracking them in the games of importance thread. I also added Providence and South Carolina, who have played themselves onto the bubble.

 

[justinhub2003]

Lunardi just released a update on Twitter

UC is first four out.

WSU is last 4 bye

Battle of the bubble again

UCLA is the last 4 out as well

https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/1231374480934608897

 

[sedziobs]

That tweet has Cincinnati highlighted red meaning "lost today". Uh, no. Also Richmond lost since he posted that. They were in his last four in. I wonder if that's enough to put us back in. Things are changing by the minute.

 

[justinhub2003]

We just have to figure out a way to get in and also the league needs more then 2 teams in,

It be really embarrassing if the WCC, & A10 got in more

 

[cincrulz11]

Lunardi bumped us from last team in to 10 seed after yesterday.


not sure how that works. lunardi doesn't have a great 5 year track record, but last year he actually had one of the best. maybe he's better with the new system.

 

[sedziobs]

We were on Lunardi's roller coaster this weekend. After the UCF loss, we were still in the field. Then after Saturday when we didn't play and a ton of bubble teams lost, we dropped to first four out. Now we're back above the bubble again. Seems like he's spitballing. He's the most visible bracketologist though, so his opinion is more influential more than others.

Dave Ommen has us as an 11 seed. A lot of bracketologists aren't placing us on their bubble lists right now because we are taking the auto-bid as conference leader.

 

[cincrulz11]

We were on Lunardi's roller coaster this weekend. After the UCF loss, we were still in the field. Then after Saturday when we didn't play and a ton of bubble teams lost, we dropped to first four out. Now we're back above the bubble again. Seems like he's spitballing. He's the most visible bracketologist though, so his opinion is more influential more than others.

Dave Ommen has us as an 11 seed. A lot of bracketologists aren't placing us on their bubble lists right now because we are taking the auto-bid as conference leader.

lets just make it easy and win at houston. of course the usf game is really scary because nobody in this conference has been winning both games of 2 game road trips.


im not gonna miss a season where every game is like this.

 

[sedziobs]

In Monday's bracketmatrix update, we're in 71 of 96 brackets. We are the second to last team in, just ahead of Providence (58). Richmond is the first team out with 45.

Here are the resumes (Q1, Q2, bad losses):

10 Rhode Island (1-4, 5-2, 1)
11 USC (2-7, 6-1, 1)
11 Utah St (2-4, 2-2, 1)
11 Oklahoma (3-9, 5-2, 0)
11 NC St (5-4, 4-3, 3)
11 Cincinnati (2-5, 6-0, 4)
11 Providence (7-8, 3-0, 4)
12 E Tennessee St (2-1, 1-1, 2)
12 Northern Iowa (1-1, 4-2, 2)
-----------------------------------
Richmond (2-4, 2-2, 1)
Stanford (2-5, 4-3, 1)
Georgetown (4-10, 5-2, 0)
Purdue (4-11, 3-2, 1)

 

[justinhub2003]

This season is going to be an interesting case study of what the committee Values for its last few seeds.

Below is all the teams slated for the 10 and 11 seeds in Bracket Matrix, list next to them is their resume. IN BOLD from each Tier is the best record/Most wins and in Italics is the worst.


#53 NC State: 5-4/4-3/2-3/6-0

#48 Providence: 7-8/3-0/1-3/5-1

#54 UC: 2-5/6-0/6-4/4-0

#38 Utah State: 2-4/2-2/6-1/10-0

#55 Oklahoma: 3-9/5-2/5-0/3-0

#47 USC: 2-7/6-1/6-1/5-0

#37 Rhode Island: 1-4/5-2/7-1/6-0

#52 Indiana: 6-7/2-2/3-0/7-0

#44 Xavier: 3-9/6-1/4-0/4-0

#43 WSU: 2-4/6-3/4-0/8-0


First Four Out:
#49 Richmond: 2-4/2-2/6-1/10-0
#31 Stanford: 2-5/4-3/6-1/6-0
#59 Georgetown: 4-10/5-2/1-0/5-0
#36 Purdue: 4-11/3-2/2-1/5-0


Teams with the most Tier 3/4 losses: UC, Providence, NC State
Teams with the most tier 1 wins: Providence, Indiana, NC State
Teams with the most Tier 1/2 Wins: Providence, NC State, Xavier


Teams with highest over SOS: Xavier (#8), GeorgeTown (#12), Providence (#15), Oklahoma (#21), UC (#23)

Teams with the Worst SOS: Utah state, Stanford, WSU, Richmond



So here is how many games each team has left against tier 1 and 2:


#53 NC State: 2/0/2/0

#48 Providence: 1/2

#54 UC: 1/1/1

#38 Utah State: 0 Tier 1 or 2 left

#55 Oklahoma: 2/2/

#47 USC: 1/2

#37 Rhode Island: 1/1/2

#52 Indiana: 3/1

#44 Xavier: 3/1

#43 WSU: 1/1/2


First Four Out:
#49 Richmond: 0/1/3
#31 Stanford: 3/0/1
#59 Georgetown: 3/1
#36 Purdue:1/2



Looking at the games left on the schedule, 2 teams concern me the most about having the opportunities to move back into the field and that's Stanford who has an 3 tier 1 games left. IF they go 2-1 in those games, they move right into the field and someone moves out. My first choice would be Utah State.

Then Georgetown.. GTown last a few key players and yet still has a quality resume. But the issue is they have 3 tier 1 games left and 1 tier 2. If they go 2-2, they are likely back in the fold. Someone else bounces out.



The negatives for UC is that we have the most or tied for most tier 3/4 losses. The other is that of all those teams we have the 3 worst NET ranking.

The positives are we have the best record against tier 2 teams. And we have a top 25 SOS.

The gist: Beat Houston

 

[justinhub2003]

In Monday's bracketmatrix update, we're in 71 of 96 brackets. We are the second to last team in, just ahead of Providence (58). Richmond is the first team out with 45.

Here are the resumes (Q1, Q2, bad losses):

10 Rhode Island (1-4, 5-2, 1)
11 USC (2-7, 6-1, 1)
11 Utah St (2-4, 2-2, 1)
11 Oklahoma (3-9, 5-2, 0)
11 NC St (5-4, 4-3, 3)
11 Cincinnati (2-5, 6-0, 4)
11 Providence (7-8, 3-0, 4)
12 E Tennessee St (2-1, 1-1, 2)
12 Northern Iowa (1-1, 4-2, 2)
-----------------------------------
Richmond (2-4, 2-2, 1)
Stanford (2-5, 4-3, 1)
Georgetown (4-10, 5-2, 0)
Purdue (4-11, 3-2, 1)

LOL Damn we were doing the same thing.

 

[sedziobs]

Nice rundown. It just occurred to me that Utah St and Richmond have the exact same quadrant records. I think what sets them apart is Utah St is 12 spots better in NET/Kenpom.

 

[cincrulz11]

we are currently in 79 of 103 brackets on bracketmatrix and we sit at an 11 seed. a few have us as a 9, who knows how.

 

[sedziobs]

UNLV is starting to look like a potential bid stealer. They are playing really well right now and the Mountain West tourney is on their home floor.

 

[kskenyon4]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...s-wish-the-selection-committee-still-used-rpi

 

[justinhub2003]

If UCLA loses tonight, we can probably scratch them from an at large I would think.

They had their chances to win.

Arizona state has some killers on their team. Not a team you want to play in March