juckerrules
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So weird that they are the only team to beat 2 of the top 25....Clemson & Auburn
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So weird that they are the only team to beat 2 of the top 25....Clemson & Auburn
AZ BEARCAT
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UConn's Eric Cobb suspended indefinitely for conduct detrimental to team. UCONN is heading the wrong direction.
Kansas is going to barely escape at home against Iowa St. I've watched most of the game... and these refs reaallly wanted KU to get the W. Several times there's been an ISU guy getting mugged with no whistle. For me, that kind of reffing really ruins an otherwise great game.
justinhub2003
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Seton hall just got beat by 20.
We should move past them
We should move past them
juckerrules
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By beating Kpom #309, I feel so proud
TheShoeFits
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So who do we root for tonight?
Mississippi St. @ Florida 7:00 PM SEC Network.
Florida currently -8.
Mississippi St. @ Florida 7:00 PM SEC Network.
Florida currently -8.
justinhub2003
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Im rooting for Mississippi state.
I'll always take the boosted resume of a team we beat vs a team we lost to.
Huge opportunity for Miss State and would help us out a lot if they win
TheShoeFits
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Thanks. Any chance I can get you to start a new thread? Maybe name it "Prior Opponents" or "Rooting Interest"
You can let us know which teams we should or shouldn't be rooting for to help boost UC's tournament resume. And throw some numbers out there to support it.
jacobkdoyle
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This is a great idea.
I agree it would be nice to get a constant stream of rankings of RPI and Kenpom for teams either in or straddling lines of column 1 or 2...but that takes some effort. There is probably an easy way to do this but I am not a spread sheet genius...lol!
Those teams outside of column 1 or 2 aren't going to mean all that much to us in the end.
justinhub2003
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In terms of RPI (my least favorite metric) Jerry Palm used to have a tool called the Palm reader and when you clicked a specific team, it showed you in the side bar ways your team could improve its RPI that day by games on the schedule (teams you beat and teams you lost to)
I will continue to say this...RPI doesn't mean squat until the end when it starts to match the other metrics. But in the end it means a lot to the committee but they don't really evaluate this stuff until the end anyway.
Up until the last month or so Kenpom is better to look at while RPI is getting narrowed down.
I don't recall our final RPI and Kenpom last year leading into the tourney but they were a lot closer than #7 and #34. They were probably closer to dead on around #12 or so within a few spots...again IDK.
Warren Nolan's site has automated team sheets, separating the schedule into the four RPI groups. The Bearcats' team sheet is here: http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/team-sheet?team=Cincinnati
There is also a "Predicted Team Sheet" that gives us a total of five Group 1 wins at the end of the season. However, the predictions are deterministic, meaning the most likely result of each individual game is used. The deterministic approach has UC going 28-3 with the only loss at Wichita. Kenpom uses probabilistic predictions, which give us a 26-5 record.
Just to clarify further for non-nerds: say we play 10 games with a 60% chance of winning each. Our deterministic predicted record is 10-0. The probabilistic prediction is 6-4. Determinism gives poor forecasts, so it is likely that the RPIs in Warren Nolan's predicted team sheet will look quite different. It's still an interesting way to get a feel for what our resume may show in March.
There is also a "Predicted Team Sheet" that gives us a total of five Group 1 wins at the end of the season. However, the predictions are deterministic, meaning the most likely result of each individual game is used. The deterministic approach has UC going 28-3 with the only loss at Wichita. Kenpom uses probabilistic predictions, which give us a 26-5 record.
Just to clarify further for non-nerds: say we play 10 games with a 60% chance of winning each. Our deterministic predicted record is 10-0. The probabilistic prediction is 6-4. Determinism gives poor forecasts, so it is likely that the RPIs in Warren Nolan's predicted team sheet will look quite different. It's still an interesting way to get a feel for what our resume may show in March.
Interesting stuff! I like the probabilistic prediction of 5 losses I think it's realistically probabilistic....lol! We should be favored in all games but 1 from here on out but that is not how it works.
Last year we ended at 12 RPI and 23 Kenpom.
Our RPI last year did this the final 16 weeks:
72
37
40
49
31
24
17
18
16
16
15
15
14
14
13
12
justinhub2003
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Yea RPI is junk in that if your a terrible mid major school but play 13 tough non conference games, you get rewarded.
But those teams always drop way down once They get well into conference play.
Kenpom is just the best. I actually don’t hate BPI as well.
Today's RPI impact games:
Wyoming at New Mexico - Currently RPI 51, just barely into Group 2. 49% chance to win.
Miss St at Florida - Florida RPI 49 (Group 1), MS St RPI 65 (Group 2). Still lots of time left to determine where these teams fit in the SEC.
Wyoming at New Mexico - Currently RPI 51, just barely into Group 2. 49% chance to win.
Miss St at Florida - Florida RPI 49 (Group 1), MS St RPI 65 (Group 2). Still lots of time left to determine where these teams fit in the SEC.
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I think we were well above 100 just a couple weeks ago. RPI is junk until late season. We have been Kenpom between #5 and #15 I think the whole time. Buffalo is still our best win in RPI...lol! I mean...go Buffalo...but RPI isn't a metric to use until the last month of the season. For us with our schedule severely back loaded...we might as well not look at it until the committee does.