Cincinnati against NCAA Tournament Teams

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They've played some decent defense this season. They held SJU without a field goal for nearly 9 minutes. They've had some bad defensive lapses too. If we're going to be critical let's be fair as well.
 
Giving up 46.7% shooting and shooting just 35.7% yourself must be great numbers to you.

again, youre not adjusting for quality of opponent by pointing out those #s. Of course their #s are gonna be dramatically worse against the BE teams. They dont/nor should they get a ton of credit for blitzing an inept Toledo team. Nor should they get overly penalized for sucking offensively/defensively against a Pittsburgh team ranked top 5 in the country in offense and top 20 in the country in defense.


These #s arent just magically produced. Theyre 13th in the nation for adjusted defensive efficiency

adjusted defensive efficiency defined= points allowed per possession while ADJUSTING for quality of opponent.


and more importantly, if two possessions in the St Johns game goes differently at the end of the game, are we even having this discussion? I highly doubt it. Lets not be so overly short term results oriented and remember this team is still the best defensive team cincinnati has had since the huggins era. They were favored in that St Johns game by 5.5 and favored in the W Va game. Vegas doesnt just get favorited teams wrong on a regular basis. They do like to set a fair line and get action and really id imagine if it was as simple as "oh, they suck against the good teams" then every professional gambler wouldve made mad bank betting against the bearcats in those games.

They played horrible basketball for just about the first 32 minutes and really, the last 90 seconds too. This team had no business whatsoever even being close in that game with the level it performed at, yet somehow still had every opportunity to win the game at the end. Did they get it done? No. Is that disappointing? Definitely. Does it mean they suck against quality competetion....meh. I guess everyones gonna be betting the farm against the bearcats and laughing all the way to the bank bc on wed UC is gonna be right around a 2 pt favorite, although it wouldnt shock me if it moved to about a pickem game.



def efficiency for each season that its been tracked and ADJUSTED for by each opponent

03 UC 14th in the nation at 89.3 pts per 100 possessions
04 UC 19th in the nation at 89.8 pts per 100 possessions
05 UC 16th in the nation at 89.5 pts per 100 possessions Hugs last year

06 UC 62nd in the nation at 94.6 pts per 100 possessions Kennedy year 1
07 UC 98th in the nation at 97.2 pts per 100 possessions Mick year 1
08 UC 72nd in the nation at 95.3 pts per 100 possessions
09 UC 104th in the nation at 97.9 pts per 100 possessions
10 UC 59th in the nation at 93.8 pts per 100 possessions
11 UC 13th in the nation at 89.6 pts per 100 possessions
 
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again, youre not adjusting for quality of opponent by pointing out those #s. They dont/nor should they get a ton of credit for blitzing an inept Toledo team. Nor should they get overly penalized for sucking offensively/defensively against a Pittsburgh team ranked top 5 in the country in offense and top 20 in the country in defense.


These #s arent just magically produced. Theyre 13th in the nation for adjusted defensive efficiency

adjusted defensive efficiency defined= points allowed per possession while ADJUSTING for quality of opponent

Can always count on you for a zinger of a KenPom post. :D
 
When you get into that stuff it's Latin to me. I just know they have played overall defense this season. Had some bad stretches and games, but overall it's been pretty solid.
 
When you get into that stuff it's Latin to me. I just know they have played overall defense this season. Had some bad stretches and games, but overall it's been pretty solid.

More or less its known as tempo free stats. The premise is all basketball teams do not play at the same pace, meaning the average north carolina game is going to have more possessions than the average notre dame game. Its more or less common sense that a team that plays at a faster pace/more possessions per game is always going to score more pts, but also allow more pts than a team that plays at a slower pace. Defensive efficiency is just.the numberof pts a team allows divided by number of possessions in a game. That number is then weighted to account for quality of opponent. It almost always lines up with what an objective observer sees, but it can be difficult to spot elite offenses who play at a slow pace, just as elite defenses at a faster pace can be harder to identify.
 
More or less its known as tempo free stats. The premise is all basketball teams do not play at the same pace, meaning the average north carolina game is going to have more possessions than the average notre dame game. Its more or less common sense that a team that plays at a faster pace/more possessions per game is always going to score more pts, but also allow more pts than a team that plays at a slower pace. Defensive efficiency is just.the numberof pts a team allows divided by number of possessions in a game. That number is then weighted to account for quality of opponent. It almost always lines up with what an objective observer sees, but it can be difficult to spot elite offenses who play at a slow pace, just as elite defenses at a faster pace can be harder to identify.

Nice explanation, thank you.
 
georgetown scored 46 points in 58 possessions vs UC

that means UC held them to .793 pts per possession
The best defensive team in the country, Texas, allows .832 pts per possession.


gtown after the disastrous performance against UC still remains 12th in the nation with 1.162 pts per possession

the worst offensive team in the country, Southern is 345th and they score .791 pts per possession

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_GFzFqyaRc[/ame]
 
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The Bearcats got a little love on Sportscenter today. They put up a stat of note: UC is 4-6 against the RPI Top 50. That means all 6 of their losses are to RPI Top 50 teams. As the Sportscenter anchor said, "Let's Dance." Also there are only 5 teams in the NCAA with more RPI Top 25 wins than the 4 by Cincinnati.
 
pauldehnerjr Only two teams own more than one road win against Top 25 RPI teams: Pitt and Cincinnati.

From Twitter
 
From Lance McAlister's Blog:

Top 25 RPI wins
Jerry Palm, CollegeRPI.com

*Only 5 teams have more Top 25 RPI wins than UC
*15 teams have 3+ Top 25 RPI wins....11 of those teams are from the Big East

Top 25 RPI wins
6: St John's, Notre Dame, Louisville
5: BYU, Pitt
4: Cincinnati, Georgetown, Syracuse, West Virginia,
3: UConn, Florida, Tenn, Villanova, Minnesota, Marquette
2: Kentucky, Ohio State, SD St, Purdue, Texas
Others of note
1: Kansas, Duke, North Carolina, Dayton, Miami Redhawks
0: Xavier, Butler, Arizona
 
and all losses to RPI top 50 teams, what other teams can claim that with 4 top 25 wins?
 
I've seen in all the statistics that show overall UC is one of the best defensive teams in the nation. I thought I'd see what those numbers really mean against teams that are NCAA tournament caliber (I included St. Johns because they positioned themselves for a bid with the win today), because that is who we will be measured against.

This so called "great defense" against NCAA caliber teams allows:

64.6 points per game
46.7% (147-315) Field Goal Percentage
43.3% (39-90) 3-Point Percentage
13 Three Point Attempts
45 Field Goal Attempts

Those are some pretty bad numbers for field goal percentage, I think this proves that they really are just an above average defensive team and have serious lapses against good teams. The points per game average isn't bad but you also have to consider the limited possessions each team has, as UC plays a slower tempo.

Here are the scary bad numbers, the offense averages:

56.4 points per game
35.7% (145-406) Field Goal Percentage
30.1% (46-153) 3-Point Percentage
22 Three Point Attempts (9 more than opponents)
58 Field Goal Attempts (13 more than opponents)

What these numbers show is that against quality opponents in Big East play, Cincinnati is simply not good enough to compete with these teams. Their poor defense and horrific offense show that this is simply an NIT Team. They beat up on really bad teams...had an inflated record, and inflated statistics...and quite frankly are a fraud.

They aren't just folding at the end of this season, they simply weren't any good to begin with.
Oh hi
 
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