Cincinnati isn't Trustworthy... Yet

[LaxCat31]

Interesting article on ESPN this morning about teams you shouldn't trust yet in the NCAA tourney.

"Cincinnati: Cincinnati possesses one of America’s most impenetrable defenses. Only 11 of its 29 opponents thus far have scored 60 or more. There’s just one problem. The Bearcats (129th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per Ken Pomeroy) can’t score. Sean Kilpatrick is a dynamic player, but it’s clear that he’s also Mick Cronin’s only reliable scoring option in clutch situations. When he’s on, Cincinnati usually finds enough offense to compete with the best teams in the country. When he’s off (18-for-60 in the team’s past three losses), Cincy is an unstable operation. Can the Bearcats beat the best teams in America? Yes, they’ve proven that. But few teams rely so heavily on one player’s production to reach their ceiling. "

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/95043/eight-teams-you-shouldnt-trust-yet

 

[UCalum08]

Interesting article on ESPN this morning about teams you shouldn't trust yet in the NCAA tourney.

"Cincinnati: Cincinnati possesses one of America’s most impenetrable defenses. Only 11 of its 29 opponents thus far have scored 60 or more. There’s just one problem. The Bearcats (129th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per Ken Pomeroy) can’t score. Sean Kilpatrick is a dynamic player, but it’s clear that he’s also Mick Cronin’s only reliable scoring option in clutch situations. When he’s on, Cincinnati usually finds enough offense to compete with the best teams in the country. When he’s off (18-for-60 in the team’s past three losses), Cincy is an unstable operation. Can the Bearcats beat the best teams in America? Yes, they’ve proven that. But few teams rely so heavily on one player’s production to reach their ceiling. "

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/95043/eight-teams-you-shouldnt-trust-yet

Pretty fair assessment IMO

 

[bearcat jeff]

I think it's correct. If UC would obtain offensive discipline and toughness consistently they would be a tough out. When the players run the offense it is good enough to win against anybody with the defense they play. However, that willingness comes and goes. When they commit to it they are capable of 2nd halves like the 1st UL game and SMU or Memphis. when they aren't you get the UConn game.

 

[Levettation]

It is a fair assesment. If you look around though, there are many ranked teams in a similar predicament.

IMO, the Cats didn't lose to UL or UCONN because of our bad offense (although it certainly was a part of it), we lost because we turned the ball over and allowed those TOs to be converted into easy baskets. It's like a good defensive football team giving up points when the offense is on the field. I think even Mick called those "pick-6 turnovers" after the Louisville game. There is no defense for that.

Ultimately, the Bearcats success in the tournament depends more on taking care of the ball then just "good offense". It cuts down on easy transition baskets for the opponent and also gives you more shots on offense. More shots equals more points, in theory, which doesn't really mean better offense. You just had more opportunities.

If UC doesn't turn the ball over they will be extremely tough to beat. If the team that played last Saturday shows up they may not win a game.

 

[cincrulz11]

UC is only as reliable as JJ is. JJ obviously can't keep getting himself in foul trouble early on, but even when he does, he has to stay in it mentally. He played the 2nd half in each of these past 2 games extremely passive in fear of picking up another foul.


I like our chances if JJ gets 30+ minutes.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Guys we can shoot and miss and still have a shot to win. We can't turn the ball over allowing other teams to score points which we can't defend. The last two losses our ball security has been awful. Cut are turnovers by 1/2 in either of those games and we win. We are who we are offensively. That isn't going to change much between now and end of year. We can stop giving the ball away for uncontested lay ups.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

UC is only as reliable as JJ is. JJ obviously can't keep getting himself in foul trouble early on, but even when he does, he has to stay in it mentally. He played the 2nd half in each of these past 2 games extremely passive in fear of picking up another foul.


I like our chances if JJ gets 30+ minutes.

certainly we are better with JJ on the floor. The last two games we still win if we cut down on our TO's. We can not give other teams easy baskets. We can't use our team strength, our defense if we continue to turn the ball over.

 

[Levettation]

BTW, I just finished that article. UK reminds me of that 8th seeded UCLA team that beat us Logan's senior year when we were the 1 seed. Tons of NBA talent that had a terrible season.

UK will hopefully lose it's first game, but I'm sure no #1 seed will care to play them in round 2.

 

[cincrulz11]

certainly we are better with JJ on the floor. The last two games we still win if we cut down on our TO's. We can not give other teams easy baskets. We can't use our team strength, our defense if we continue to turn the ball over.

Yes we have to cut down our TO's, but the offense is better with JJ on the court. Look at his minutes played in our good wins vs minutes played when we lost to good teams.

Wins:

Pitt - 32 minutes
SMU- 34 minutes
Memphis - 31 minutes
Ville - 37 minutes.
Uconn - 34 minutes

Losses:
SMU - 26 minutes
Ville - 22 minutes
Uconn - 24 minutes


The guy has to stay in the game. He's our 2nd best offensive player on a team that greatly lacks offense. Is it possible to win games with him on the bench? Sure it is, but it is a much tougher task.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Yes we have to cut down our TO's, but the offense is better with JJ on the court. Look at his minutes played in our good wins vs minutes played when we lost to good teams.

Wins:

Pitt - 32 minutes
SMU- 34 minutes
Memphis - 31 minutes
Ville - 37 minutes.
Uconn - 34 minutes

Losses:
SMU - 26 minutes
Ville - 22 minutes
Uconn - 24 minutes


The guy has to stay in the game. He's our 2nd best offensive player on a team that greatly lacks offense. Is it possible to win games with him on the bench? Sure it is, but it is a much tougher task.

don't disagree with any thing you wrote. My point was even with JJ on the bench if we didn't turn the ball over we still win.

 

[Not Guilty]

Yes we have to cut down our TO's, but the offense is better with JJ on the court. Look at his minutes played in our good wins vs minutes played when we lost to good teams.

Wins:

Pitt - 32 minutes
SMU- 34 minutes
Memphis - 31 minutes
Ville - 37 minutes.
Uconn - 34 minutes

Losses:
SMU - 26 minutes
Ville - 22 minutes
Uconn - 24 minutes


The guy has to stay in the game. He's our 2nd best offensive player on a team that greatly lacks offense. Is it possible to win games with him on the bench? Sure it is, but it is a much tougher task.

Definitely agree overall. It was a little concerning how ineffective he was against UConn though. UConn doubled him hard when he got the ball in the post. This should be an advantage for our offense. Instead we were lucky to get the ball back out top and reset the offense without turning it over when this happened against UConn. We need more off ball movement if teams are going to double JJ to help him out. He is a very willing and capable passer, but the opportunity has to present itself.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

Historically teams that "overachieve" are typically prime candidates for early tournament exists. As much as we love to romanticize the cinderella stories, efficient teams with talent (even if they underachieved during the regular season) almost always win...

Look at last years Final Four: Louisville, Syracuse, Michigan and Wichita State.

Syracuse ended the season #10 in the KenPom but was a 4 seed
Wichita State ended #17 but was a 9 seed
Michigan ended #4 but was a 4 seed.

On the other hand:
Georgetown finished #12 but got a 2 seed and was upset in the first round
New Mexico finished #19 but got a 3 seed and was upset in the first round
UNLV finished #41 but got a 5 seed and was upset in the first round

Sure you will find a few examples (like Pitt) where the more efficient underseeded team lost. However in Pitt's case they played another underseeded team...

I will be testing this theory again during the NCAA tournament. Cincinnati looks like a candidate for that second group. However there is still a few games left to change that trend...

 

[Bearcat04]

Historically teams that "overachieve" are typically prime candidates for early tournament exists. As much as we love to romanticize the cinderella stories, efficient teams with talent (even if they underachieved during the regular season) almost always win...

Look at last years Final Four: Louisville, Syracuse, Michigan and Wichita State.

Syracuse ended the season #10 in the KenPom but was a 4 seed
Wichita State ended #17 but was a 9 seed
Michigan ended #4 but was a 4 seed.

On the other hand:
Georgetown finished #12 but got a 2 seed and was upset in the first round
New Mexico finished #19 but got a 3 seed and was upset in the first round
UNLV finished #41 but got a 5 seed and was upset in the first round

Sure you will find a few examples (like Pitt) where the more efficient underseeded team lost. However in Pitt's case they played another underseeded team...

I will be testing this theory again during the NCAA tournament. Cincinnati looks like a candidate for that second group. However there is still a few games left to change that trend...

Michigan ended up #4 in Kenpom, but where were they on Selection Sunday? They might have been seeded just right at that point in time.

 

[UCBearcats]

Yes we have to cut down our TO's, but the offense is better with JJ on the court. Look at his minutes played in our good wins vs minutes played when we lost to good teams.

Wins:

Pitt - 32 minutes
SMU- 34 minutes
Memphis - 31 minutes
Ville - 37 minutes.
Uconn - 34 minutes

Losses:
SMU - 26 minutes
Ville - 22 minutes
Uconn - 24 minutes


The guy has to stay in the game. He's our 2nd best offensive player on a team that greatly lacks offense. Is it possible to win games with him on the bench? Sure it is, but it is a much tougher task.

Something I've noticed lately is that the offense isn't getting the ball to JJ down low on the post up. We did this a lot early and middle of the season with great results. Suddenly we seem to have gotten away from it.

I'm seeing JJ take the ball beyond the 3 point line (giving me horrible flashbacks to the Yancy days when we did this) way too much lately. Not sure why we got away from JJ in the post but I'd like to see us get back to it.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

Michigan ended up #4 in Kenpom, but where were they on Selection Sunday? They might have been seeded just right at that point in time.

Larger sample size gets you closer to the actual mean...

 

[Bearcat04]

Historically teams that "overachieve" are typically prime candidates for early tournament exists. As much as we love to romanticize the cinderella stories, efficient teams with talent (even if they underachieved during the regular season) almost always win...

Louisville is an interesting case this year. They are currently #5 in the Kenpom ratings, but as John Gasaway pointed out it's basically due to their domination of bad teams. Against the top teams in the AAC they have been very average:

W-L Pace PPP O.PPP EM
1. Louisville
3-3 68.3 0.99 0.97 +0.02

Gasaway add this too:

Meaning no top-15 team in the country up to and including Florida or Arizona is better equipped to win its game in the round of 64 than Louisville. After that all bets will be off for the Cards.

 

[bearcat jeff]

It is a fair assesment. If you look around though, there are many ranked teams in a similar predicament.

IMO, the Cats didn't lose to UL or UCONN because of our bad offense (although it certainly was a part of it), we lost because we turned the ball over and allowed those TOs to be converted into easy baskets. It's like a good defensive football team giving up points when the offense is on the field. I think even Mick called those "pick-6 turnovers" after the Louisville game. There is no defense for that.

Ultimately, the Bearcats success in the tournament depends more on taking care of the ball then just "good offense". It cuts down on easy transition baskets for the opponent and also gives you more shots on offense. More shots equals more points, in theory, which doesn't really mean better offense. You just had more opportunities.


If UC doesn't turn the ball over they will be extremely tough to beat. If the team that played last Saturday shows up they may not win a game.

Isn't turning the ball over for easy baskets bad offense?

 

[bearcat jeff]

Something I've noticed lately is that the offense isn't getting the ball to JJ down low on the post up. We did this a lot early and middle of the season with great results. Suddenly we seem to have gotten away from it.

I'm seeing JJ take the ball beyond the 3 point line (giving me horrible flashbacks to the Yancy days when we did this) way too much lately. Not sure why we got away from JJ in the post but I'd like to see us get back to it.

Tough to do when he's on the bench for nearly a half. JJ has t realize how important he is to this team and try to be more solid and less spectacular on defense.

 

[Bearcat04]

Larger sample size gets you closer to the actual mean...

They moved up so much because they were beating good teams while other teams weren't playing though. I think you have a valid point, but I think we have to use the ratings on Selection Sunday.

 

[Not Guilty]

Michigan was ranked 11th in KenPom entering the tournament last year.
Louisville was first.
Wichita St was 34th.
Syracuse 13th.