This is speculation. The Big 12 will not add UL without a sufficient number 12. Right now that list consists of BYU and they are not budging. The Big 12 will not go to 11 just for UL.
Rick Pitino is against Louisville going to the Big 12.
More importantly the AD of Texas does not want to go beyond 10 teams. Texas likes splitting the money 10 ways instead of 12.
Texas is in total control of the Big 12, none of the other schools matter. What Texas wants Texas gets.