Reds/MLB

[AZ BEARCAT]

Aaa depth to start the season

They are making him a starter also.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I get what you're saying and don't disagree with the philosophy but who hits second then? Most people say Votto or Frazier. I say no to Votto because for one he's too slow and two if you successfully run Hamilton he is a 95% sure thing for a walk. Frazier I don't like there because he actually has power and run producing ability. He led the team in homers last year, although Mesoraco had a much better ratio per/ab. That's why I put them 4 and 5. Phillips is a smart hitter and can and will adjust his swing to situational hit. In the two hole, with Hamilton on, I think he'll buckle down and be a better on-base type hitter. Basically I think Phillips still can be a healthy part of a good line-up. He's not going to carry a line-up, but I think he is more saavy a hitter than to stick in the seven or worse eight slot. Plus you can run Hamilton in front of Phillips or hit and run as Phillips is good at that. I think Phillips numbers got messed up hitting him fourth so much.

The Reds should've gotten an on-base guy to hit second. Instead we got another power/strike out guy. Although, honestly had we signed Aoki or someone of that nature, I would be tempted to bat him leadoff and bat Hamilton eighth until he can get on-base at a .330 clip or better. .292 doesn't cut it for me no matter how fast you are especially when you're caught stealing 30% of the time. I think Hamilton will get smarter on the base paths but I honestly don't think he'll ever be a hitter and get on base that much. I hope I'm wrong.

I'd like Phillips 6th. He can drive in runs there and it won't matter as much if he doesn't walk in that spot. Frazier's power is just an extra benefit at 2nd spot bc he runs well and gets on base. Having Hamilton at .290 OBP and Phillips at .310 OBP in front of Votto sounds miserable. Votto doesn't ever swing the bat so we need other guys already on base for him.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

I'd like Phillips 6th. He can drive in runs there and it won't matter as much if he doesn't walk in that spot. Frazier's power is just an extra benefit at 2nd spot bc he runs well and gets on base. Having Hamilton at .290 OBP and Phillips at .310 OBP in front of Votto sounds miserable. Votto doesn't ever swing the bat so we need other guys already on base for him.

I agree about the OBP. I guess I'm just hoping that in the two hole and not swinging for the fences that he would get on base more. His career numbers aren't bad as far as OBP go. In crunch time Phillips can work a count and be a smart hitter. Unfortunately I think Phillips just gives up at bats when there is no one on base swinging for home runs (which I know wouldn't change in the two hole). Phillips problem is he sees that hitting 30 home runs a year gets you paid and he hit 30 home runs once and can't accept he's not a power hitter anymore. I think if you go into the season and tell Phillips that what we need from him is to hit behind Hamilton and get on base that he will accept it. Phillips isn't playing for a contract anymore, he needs to play to win and he is a team player. I just think in an ideal world with Hamilton getting on base that Phillips provides the best possibility to move him over and keep your power guys in the traditional power spots. Frazier hit 29 last year. If he continues to improve to me he is a great five hole hitter. Actually he could be a great three but I just don't see anywhere else for Votto to hit and Votto is your best hitter. If Bruce could come to form I love the possibilities of Mesoraco, Frazier, Bruce hitting four, five, six. They should've signed Aoki. And since they signed a 37 year-old I wouldn't have minded signing Torii Hunter or even Ichiro. They could've been great mentors for Hamilton.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I agree about the OBP. I guess I'm just hoping that in the two hole and not swinging for the fences that he would get on base more. His career numbers aren't bad as far as OBP go. In crunch time Phillips can work a count and be a smart hitter. Unfortunately I think Phillips just gives up at bats when there is no one on base swinging for home runs (which I know wouldn't change in the two hole). Phillips problem is he sees that hitting 30 home runs a year gets you paid and he hit 30 home runs once and can't accept he's not a power hitter anymore. I think if you go into the season and tell Phillips that what we need from him is to hit behind Hamilton and get on base that he will accept it. Phillips isn't playing for a contract anymore, he needs to play to win and he is a team player. I just think in an ideal world with Hamilton getting on base that Phillips provides the best possibility to move him over and keep your power guys in the traditional power spots. Frazier hit 29 last year. If he continues to improve to me he is a great five hole hitter. Actually he could be a great three but I just don't see anywhere else for Votto to hit and Votto is your best hitter. If Bruce could come to form I love the possibilities of Mesoraco, Frazier, Bruce hitting four, five, six. They should've signed Aoki. And since they signed a 37 year-old I wouldn't have minded signing Torii Hunter or even Ichiro. They could've been great mentors for Hamilton.

Byrd > Aoki. Byrd > Hunter. Byrd > Ichiro x2. Not really that close either.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

Byrd > Aoki. Byrd > Hunter. Byrd > Ichiro x2. Not really that close either.

Not really my point. I think the other guys might be better fits for our lineup. Ichiro is probably done, but the other two are still productive. You can't have a lineup of supposed run producers and nobody to get on base. Honestly Byrd at this stage of his career isn't that much different than Ludwick when we signed him except he hits at a slightly higher average. This team will struggle to score runs next year. The last thing we needed was another guy swinging for the fences and striking out too much.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Not really my point. I think the other guys might be better fits for our lineup. Ichiro is probably done, but the other two are still productive. You can't have a lineup of supposed run producers and nobody to get on base. Honestly Byrd at this stage of his career isn't that much different than Ludwick when we signed him except he hits at a slightly higher average. This team will struggle to score runs next year. The last thing we needed was another guy swinging for the fences and striking out too much.

Byrd is much better defensively than Ludwick. And as far as best fit for our lineup? I'll take the best player and figure it out. And Byrd is much better than Aoki imo (and in the opinion of advanced stats). I'm thinking we're probably just not going to agree on this.

 

[AZ BEARCAT]

Byrd is much better defensively than Ludwick. And as far as best fit for our lineup? I'll take the best player and figure it out. And Byrd is much better than Aoki imo (and in the opinion of advanced stats). I'm thinking we're probably just not going to agree on this.

Ludwick was done, reds paid over 4 mill to get rid of him, I hope 25 for Byrd. Who was the outfielder for the reds before Griffey came over? Same outcome,would be great. Gave the reds a couple good years of leadership and power. Would be nice!!

 

[david aka the TYZ]

Ludwick was done, reds paid over 4 mill to get rid of him, I hope 25 for Byrd. Who was the outfielder for the reds before Griffey came over? Same outcome,would be great. Gave the reds a couple good years of leadership and power. Would be nice!!

Ludwick's first year here he hit .275 with 26 hrs and 80 rbi. With missing time. I'd say we'd be happy with those numbers out of any of our starting eight and definitely a 37 year old byrd.

Greg Vaughn played one year here and hit 45 hr's. I'd bet my house he doesn't sniff that. Byrd is what he is. A journeyman outfielder with pop. So was ludwick when he signed him. Can he help? Yes. But if anyone expects him to be a clubhouse leader and to bolster our lineup I fear they will be disappointed. Guys like that don't move from team to team every year and twice a year in some cases. If this team as a whole hits then Byrd can be a nice addition. You take last year's team and put Byrd in the middle and he disappears and you still lose 86 games or whatever they lost.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

Byrd is much better defensively than Ludwick. And as far as best fit for our lineup? I'll take the best player and figure it out. And Byrd is much better than Aoki imo (and in the opinion of advanced stats). I'm thinking we're probably just not going to agree on this.

Honestly I just like talking baseball. Overall Byrd might show better stats. What this team is seriously lacking is a guy that can get on base at the top of the lineup. Power guys are worthless with no one on base. When we had Choo here for one year he made an incredible difference. Aoki wouldn't be my first choice of guys to bring in, but of the available players he fit the bill in my mind. He gets on base and scores runs. I'd still like to see the reds sign him but it won't happen. Our payrolls too high as it is to go out and sign a fourth outfielder.

 

[AZ BEARCAT]

Honestly I just like talking baseball. Overall Byrd might show better stats. What this team is seriously lacking is a guy that can get on base at the top of the lineup. Power guys are worthless with no one on base. When we had Choo here for one year he made an incredible difference. Aoki wouldn't be my first choice of guys to bring in, but of the available players he fit the bill in my mind. He gets on base and scores runs. I'd still like to see the reds sign him but it won't happen. Our payrolls too high as it is to go out and sign a fourth outfielder.

Unless he will replace Bruce, if we could trade Bruce. The power comes from Byrd and we have our top of the lineup guy for less money.

 

[coachpipe]

I get what you're saying and don't disagree with the philosophy but who hits second then? Most people say Votto or Frazier. I say no to Votto because for one he's too slow and two if you successfully run Hamilton he is a 95% sure thing for a walk. Frazier I don't like there because he actually has power and run producing ability. He led the team in homers last year, although Mesoraco had a much better ratio per/ab. That's why I put them 4 and 5. Phillips is a smart hitter and can and will adjust his swing to situational hit. In the two hole, with Hamilton on, I think he'll buckle down and be a better on-base type hitter. Basically I think Phillips still can be a healthy part of a good line-up. He's not going to carry a line-up, but I think he is more saavy a hitter than to stick in the seven or worse eight slot. Plus you can run Hamilton in front of Phillips or hit and run as Phillips is good at that. I think Phillips numbers got messed up hitting him fourth so much.

The Reds should've gotten an on-base guy to hit second. Instead we got another power/strike out guy. Although, honestly had we signed Aoki or someone of that nature, I would be tempted to bat him leadoff and bat Hamilton eighth until he can get on-base at a .330 clip or better. .292 doesn't cut it for me no matter how fast you are especially when you're caught stealing 30% of the time. I think Hamilton will get smarter on the base paths but I honestly don't think he'll ever be a hitter and get on base that much. I hope I'm wrong.

This is what I was hoping for. Right now we dont have a 2 hitter on this team. Vottos speed doesnt really take him out of the 2 hole. And he is actually the best to protect Hamilton. If they walk Votto. So be it. Now you have 2 on and no out to start the game. Id rather have Votto than Frazier at the 2 hole. Since Frazier swings at ALOT of bad pitches. Which could hurt Hamilton in front of him. Im still completely against BP in the 2 hole. It might have some to do with he is my least favorite player of the teams I root for. Cant stand the cancer. And He , IIRC he lead the league in double plays in the 2 hole position. Even though Hamilton is fast, BP is a 7 hole hitter. Byrd wouldnt fare well at the 2 hole either with his 185 Ks and not that great of plate discipline. Byrd was a bad get in my opinion. Hes the exact opposite of what this team needed and we have holes in certain spots of the lineup because of it. Absolutely needed a High OBP guy, even if it was just guy who came off the bench. You have to switch the makeup of the team somewhere. And they completely failed there. Idk what I actually got at in my ramblings, other than the team still has holes and it doesnt look like they will be filled

 

[coachpipe]

Byrd > Aoki. Byrd > Hunter. Byrd > Ichiro x2. Not really that close either.

I dont agree with this. The reds didnt need another guy to compete in the strikeout championships. Bruce, Hamilton and Frazier are all high strikeout guys. Now we just added another 185 Ks(would lead our team). You never know which Votto shows up so that could be another 100 Ks and Mesoraco had 100 Ks last year as well. That is way too many strikeout guys. We already had our "power" guys.

Im not comparing Aoki to Choo. But there was a reason the Reds were good that year. They always had someone on base. Aoki doesnt strikeout. He only struck out 49 times the entire year with a high OBP. If you put him in the 2 hole or maybe lead off (giving hamilton some time to get some confidence)you are sitting pretty for Votto and company to knock in some runs

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I dont agree with this. The reds didnt need another guy to compete in the strikeout championships. Bruce, Hamilton and Frazier are all high strikeout guys. Now we just added another 185 Ks(would lead our team). You never know which Votto shows up so that could be another 100 Ks and Mesoraco had 100 Ks last year as well. That is way too many strikeout guys. We already had our "power" guys.

Im not comparing Aoki to Choo. But there was a reason the Reds were good that year. They always had someone on base. Aoki doesnt strikeout. He only struck out 49 times the entire year with a high OBP. If you put him in the 2 hole or maybe lead off (giving hamilton some time to get some confidence)you are sitting pretty for Votto and company to knock in some runs

Byrd is 37. You are too fixated on 1 year of his whole career. He has never had over 144 K outsude of last year. And has only been over 100 K twice in his career.

 

[coachpipe]

Byrd is 37. You are too fixated on 1 year of his whole career. He has never had over 144 K outsude of last year.

You dont get better with age. Especially at 37. History suggests he will continue to decline. Especially with the type of hitter he is. He isnt patient. THe most walks hes ever had is 46 but he floats high 20s low 30s. That doesnt help you in the future. Hes a swinger. He swings at a lot of bad pitches. On a team full of guys who swing at bad pitches, he is the opposite of what this team needed

Steamer, (For what its worth) projects Byrd to have a .683 OPS. Ryan Ludwick had a .683 OPS and the team is paying him not to play this year.

His K rate since 2010 is 15.6%, 16.2%, 20.3%, 24.9% and 29%. The trend is not good. Since 1990 only 8 players at age 36 had a 25% K rate. Byrd was second with 29% and last with a 5.5% walk rate

I simply cannot see how he can possibly help this team. I hope im more wrong than ever with this signing, but I cant see it

 

[jacobkdoyle]

You dont get better with age. Especially at 37. History suggests he will continue to decline. Especially with the type of hitter he is. He isnt patient. THe most walks hes ever had is 46 but he floats high 20s low 30s. That doesnt help you in the future. Hes a swinger. He swings at a lot of bad pitches. On a team full of guys who swing at bad pitches, he is the opposite of what this team needed

Steamer, (For what its worth) projects Byrd to have a .683 OPS. Ryan Ludwick had a .683 OPS and the team is paying him not to play this year.

I don't care about those projections. And, Aoki would have to be here on a miulti-year contract. I hate the sound of that. I get what you're saying about the type of hitter Byrd is, but I think we have enough guys of average on-base ability. Plus, I just flat out don't think the Reds are that good right now anyway...so at the end of the day, 1 year of Marlon Byrd on a 4th place team isn't anything I'm going to be too worried about.

 

[coachpipe]

I don't care about those projections. And, Aoki would have to be here on a miulti-year contract. I hate the sound of that. I get what you're saying about the type of hitter Byrd is, but I think we have enough guys of average on-base ability. Plus, I just flat out don't think the Reds are that good right now anyway...so at the end of the day, 1 year of Marlon Byrd on a 4th place team isn't anything I'm going to be too worried about.

Frazier led the team last year with 47 walks and he was our high OBP guy last year. We need guys who know how to and understand why you work a count. My point is we need a whole different philosophy and signing the same type of guy will never change the makeup of this team.

The old Athletics philosophy when Damon was there. The same Philosophy Votto uses. The problem is, if everyone else doesnt get on board it doesnt work and then you have everyone and their mother who know nothing about baseball(other than home run=best player ever) telling the best hitter in a Reds uniform ever (votto) he sucks.

See as many pitches as you possible can in every at bat. That gives you a good idea of what the pitcher has going for him that day and the strikezone the umpire is calling that day. The idea is to get the starting pitcher out of the game early. You get the starter out early, the more they use the bullpen. You face a tired bullpen on game 2-3-4 you get a lot of late inning runs to win some crucial games

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Frazier led the team last year with 47 walks and he was our high OBP guy last year. We need guys who know how to and understand why you work a count. My point is we need a whole different philosophy and signing the same type of guy will never change the makeup of this team.

The old Athletics philosophy when Damon was there. The same Philosophy Votto uses. The problem is, if everyone else doesnt get on board it doesnt work and then you have everyone and their mother who know nothing about baseball telling the best hitter in a Reds uniform ever (votto) he sucks.

See as many pitches as you possible can in every at bat. That gives you a good idea of what the pitcher has going for him that day and the strikezone the umpire is calling that day. The idea is to get the starting pitcher out of the game early. You get the starter out early, the more they use the bullpen. You face a tired bullpen on game 2-3-4 you get a lot of late inning runs to win some crucial games

I hear ya, coach. The only problem though is nowadays everyone coming out of the bullpen throws 96+. Look at the Royals, the last thing you ever want to do is get their starter out of the game. I do agree with you in general though about needing guys with the same approach (whatever that approach is). Honest question, how much stock do you put into the fact that Byrd was a veteran on a horrible team last year? Do you think that had an impact on his #s?

 

[coachpipe]

I hear ya, coach. The only problem though is nowadays everyone coming out of the bullpen throws 96+. Look at the Royals, the last thing you ever want to do is get their starter out of the game. I do agree with you in general though about needing guys with the same approach (whatever that approach is). Honest question, how much stock do you put into the fact that Byrd was a veteran on a horrible team last year? Do you think that had an impact on his #s?

Hes switching from 1 horrible team to another. So I guess we will find out ha

 

[AZ BEARCAT]

Hes switching from 1 horrible team to another. So I guess we will find out ha

We can go back and forth with Byrd my fear will be Ben Lively. He could be a big strikeout guy in the pen or rotation. Has anyone seen Ian Happ play, that first pick could be huge. Swanson could also be available to.

 

[AZ BEARCAT]

Mesoroco

28 mill for four years, good move.