Top 25/KenPom/RPI/BPI

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So that Moody game will be totally different than the one just played in 5/3rd. We won't be that hot from 3 (and honestly neither will they) and I think we'll play much better defense/rebounding.

Basically X, @SMU are pick'em games. Every single other game I will be very disappointed if we lose because we will be favored. I don't buy this "drop a game" crap. Good teams don't do that. Our off nights need to be few and far between and we need to be able to manufacture wins against mediocre teams when we are having a bad night (@Temple, @ECU) or they're having a great night (Marshall).

You have to be a little lucky to get a 1 or 2 seed. I think its a real possibility with a little luck.
 
Helicopter said:
So that Moody game will be totally different than the one just played in 5/3rd. We won't be that hot from 3 (and honestly neither will they) and I think we'll play much better defense/rebounding.

Basically X, @SMU are pick'em games. Every single other game I will be very disappointed if we lose because we will be favored. I don't buy this "drop a game" crap. Good teams don't do that. Our off nights need to be few and far between and we need to be able to manufacture wins against mediocre teams when we are having a bad night (@Temple, @ECU) or they're having a great night (Marshall).

You have to be a little lucky to get a 1 or 2 seed. I think its a real possibility with a little luck.
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UI feel the same way but you may have left out a couple of things. @UCONN and @UCF will not be gimmes.
 
WAITE HOYT 2 said:
UI feel the same way but you may have left out a couple of things. @UCONN and @UCF will not be gimmes.
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Agreed. As a fan, the thought of gimme games is enticing. I hope our players buy into respecting every opponent and giving 100% every time on the floor. That said, I'd re-word what was said. If we only lose to SMU or X, we can still have decent shot at 3 or 4 seed if we win the AAC tourney. If we win out, we WILL be NO lower than a 2 seed, depending on which currently higher rated teams keep winning.
 
Red_N_Black_Attack said:
Agreed. As a fan, the thought of gimme games is enticing. I hope our players buy into respecting every opponent and giving 100% every time on the floor. That said, I'd re-word what was said. If we only lose to SMU or X, we can still have decent shot at 3 or 4 seed if we win the AAC tourney. If we win out, we WILL be NO lower than a 2 seed, depending on which currently higher rated teams keep winning.
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My god, this discussion is so much better than debating whether we would MAKE the tournament. Great position the Cats are in.
 
Helicopter said:
My god, this discussion is so much better than debating whether we would MAKE the tournament. Great position the Cats are in.
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Teamrankings.com, which does a pretty solid job, and is much more accurate as we get into late February, has UC at 16% odds for a two seed. They currently predict a 27-4 finish with a 3 seed (the lowest 3 seed). If they season ended today they predict us as the first 4 seed.

They also list our odds of making the tournament at 95% if we get to 23 wins. So yes, feels good to almost be LOCKING a tourney spot within the next 4-5 games.
 
Speaking of Kenpom, really wish I understood it more. Florida sitting above us without a single good win on their resume, just good loses. Hate how these rankings reward good loses over aversge wins.
 
GoCats88 said:
Speaking of Kenpom, really wish I understood it more. Florida sitting above us without a single good win on their resume, just good loses. Hate how these rankings reward good loses over aversge wins.
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Some of it is also because it accounts for home/road accurately. Typically playing @#76 is a tougher game than home vs 50.

Think of it this way with UC's remaining schedule. Currently he has Tulsa at #116 and projects UC as winning 76% of the time. Houston is #50, but he has us winning that game 79% of the time. So while Houston is ranked 66 spots higher, it's actually an"easier" game that we should win.

We also only have 3 A level wins-@Houston, vs SMU, @ISU, and 2 B level wins neutral PSU, @Temple. Both losses are A level and we've only played 7 A or B level games.

Florida has played 3 Bs (3-0) and 7 As (3-4) total of 6-4. So while they don't have a "good win" by your standards and many other traditional methods, they actually have 1 more good win than us, albeit more losses.


Also his rankings aren't supposed to be a resume, but a predictor of how teams will perform going forward and how good they truly are.

Other types of ratings-also have a difference between being predictive and explanatory. ELO CHESS is a little more explanatory and representative of what teams have accomplished and may be more up your alley http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2017/elochess
 
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I ran the numbers based upon the Mandelbrot/Rorschach hybrid analysis and the solution set aggregate does indeed resemble a bearcat ( or your mother depending upon your emotional state).
 
coverley said:
I ran the numbers based upon the Mandelbrot/Rorschach hybrid analysis and the solution set aggregate does indeed resemble a bearcat ( or your mother depending upon your emotional state).
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Wouldn't it be dependent on her emotional state? Just trying to understand. This stuff is all so fascinating.
 
waterhead said:
19 in the AP. The slowest climb up the top 25 in history it seems like...lol!
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ya no doubt its unfortunate that our league is so bad. all we can do at this point is root for a win thursday obviously, but also root for smu they are right on verge of being ranked and also memphis, ucf, and houston.

The way I see it as long as we keep winning these things will work themselves out on selection sunday which is what really matters in the end.
 
Btown Bearcat said:
ya no doubt its unfortunate that our league is so bad. all we can do at this point is root for a win thursday obviously, but also root for smu they are right on verge of being ranked and also memphis, ucf, and houston.

The way I see it as long as we keep winning these things will work themselves out on selection sunday which is what really matters in the end.
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Really sucks too that we don't get to play @memphis this year. We need to play Memphis, smu, uconn, temple and Tulsa twice every year. The league should only rotate the lesser team
 
Been jumped almost every week. 5/6 weeks ago Notre Dame was 25 we were 24. We haven't lost since then and neither have they, they've made it to 14th, we made it to 19th. So much love for the major conferences. And people here say it doesn't matter what conference we are in. Lol
 

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