Way-too-early disparity

[david aka the TYZ]

I would expect Cumberland to improve even on late season numbers simply by virtue of being more confident that he is a top option. Even if he did not improve over the last month of the season (which would include about 9 games) I would be very happy with that type of production.

Last 9 games he played about 25 minutes and averaged around 11.5 PPG. Carry that out to 30-32 minutes and he would be around 14-15 PPG. I think we would all take that in his sophomore campaign given we will have 4 other scoring options on the court.

The jury is out on Broome and how our chemistry will look but I don't see Cronin letting selfishness become an issue for any player. Not when we have so many good options to score. If he is selfish I could see Cronin using Jenifer to prove a point. That could be Jenifer's ticket to more playing time if he focuses on pushing pace, low turnover, and distributing rather than looking to be a score first PG.

Either way...we have options and the bench will always be a powerful tool in Cronin's arsenal.

I agree on all this. My only point on Cumberland in terms of this team being better than last years is just because he's starting doesn't mean we see 30 minutes of production we didn't get from last year's team, it's closer to 5-6 minutes. So realistically that's not a dramatic difference. And KJ's defense could easily be argued to make up the 4 points more a game more he'll score. I think Cumberland will play stronger and smarter than his late season push but I also think defenses will be planning for him as well. And who knows if he can stay out of foul trouble in an increased workload. Refs like to call fouls early in a game to establish things. That means the starters can see a little tighter game called. Cumberland's defense improved as the season went on (he was lost some the first half of the year) but he was always prone to fouling. Definitely needs to eliminate the offensive fouls.

 

[waterhead]

I agree on all this. My only point on Cumberland in terms of this team being better than last years is just because he's starting doesn't mean we see 30 minutes of production we didn't get from last year's team, it's closer to 5-6 minutes. So realistically that's not a dramatic difference. And KJ's defense could easily be argued to make up the 4 points more a game more he'll score. I think Cumberland will play stronger and smarter than his late season push but I also think defenses will be planning for him as well. And who knows if he can stay out of foul trouble in an increased workload. Refs like to call fouls early in a game to establish things. That means the starters can see a little tighter game called. Cumberland's defense improved as the season went on (he was lost some the first half of the year) but he was always prone to fouling. Definitely needs to eliminate the offensive fouls.

Yes I understand...but we have to look at this from a standpoint of plus/minus. I wish I had those stats. Just because we are only gaining 5-6 minutes does not mean the differential will be the same when Cumberland and KJ were in the game at different times. The plus minus could be +10PPG for all we know.

For some reason Cronin thought we needed Cumberland in the game late in the season and late in games. I assume it was because we played better as a team when he was in there in terms of scoring differential. I could be wrong. I don't really care if the defense is a little worse if the scoring differential is better.

As for the defense planning against him...we should have a lot of players to game plan for making it harder for any defense to plan against any single player. You can't game plan for Cumberland as much when you have to game plan for all 5 starters.

Obviously there are no plus minus stats for Broome vs Caupain but there are stats available somewhere for Cumberland vs KJ. There used to be a site called StatSheet to tell us those plus minus stats...but someone has to have them...and I'm sure Cronin has access.

 

[cincyguy13]

We haven't had a guy like cumberland since SK. Guy that wants the ball and tries to score or do something every time he touches the ball. I think that puts a lot of pressure on the defense. Can't wait

 

[waterhead]

Yes I understand...but we have to look at this from a standpoint of plus/minus. I wish I had those stats. Just because we are only gaining 5-6 minutes does not mean the differential will be the same when Cumberland and KJ were in the game at different times. The plus minus could be +10PPG for all we know.

For some reason Cronin thought we needed Cumberland in the game late in the season and late in games. I assume it was because we played better as a team when he was in there in terms of scoring differential. I could be wrong. I don't really care if the defense is a little worse if the scoring differential is better.

As for the defense planning against him...we should have a lot of players to game plan for making it harder for any defense to plan against any single player. You can't game plan for Cumberland as much when you have to game plan for all 5 starters.

Obviously there are no plus minus stats for Broome vs Caupain but there are stats available somewhere for Cumberland vs KJ. There used to be a site called StatSheet to tell us those plus minus stats...but someone has to have them...and I'm sure Cronin has access.

Just ask yourself where the offense would have come from if Cumberland were not being aggressive late in the season and we had to rely on KJ to help the offense score points or even help facilitate the offense. In some instances Cumberland was our best option late in the season to get the offense to score whether from him scoring himself or assisting other players. KJ, throughout his career, was a stall point on offense....even if his D was very good.

Again, I don't have the plus minus stats...KJ's plus minus could have been better overall...but I highly doubt it. And the fact Cumberland kept getting more and more minutes would seem to suggest he was the better overall option. Now...take KJ out of the picture and insert Jarron for the whole game and season and it could be a very dramatic change. Not just 5-6 minutes of change...but 30 minutes of better basketball all together.

It's kind of like what happened when Evans replaced Thomas IMO. The difference was major! Now Cumberland is not like Evans on D but the point remains the same for me overall.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

Well you had KJ for 25 minutes and Cumberland for 25 minutes. Now you'll have Cumberland for 30 and those other 20 minutes might be split between Jenifer, Williams and T. Moore. So it's not a matter of straight Cumberland vs. KJ.

 

[Jon Rycek]

Well you had KJ for 25 minutes and Cumberland for 25 minutes. Now you'll have Cumberland for 30 and those other 20 minutes might be split between Jenifer, Williams and T. Moore. So it's not a matter of straight Cumberland vs. KJ.

I think Cumberland only averaged 19 minutes a game

 

[waterhead]

Well you had KJ for 25 minutes and Cumberland for 25 minutes. Now you'll have Cumberland for 30 and those other 20 minutes might be split between Jenifer, Williams and T. Moore. So it's not a matter of straight Cumberland vs. KJ.

Valid point. Hopefully Cumberland is ready for 35 minutes per game in the closer and bigger games because Evans will be. If Cumberland can get 35 then we just need to figure out where 10 minutes go between he and Evans. Jarron will have to get himself in shape in the off season to be ready for that type of role.

I hope Williams can give us quality minutes at the 2 and 3 back up. Maybe we won't redshirt Moore for depth reasons. If Moore's role is purely a shooter we don't need to redshirt him for development reasons. Hopefully he can D it up because he should be able to shoot a higher % than KJ. We can run Jenifer at point and slide Broome over to the SG as well...depending on who gives us the best minutes either at PG or wing...or a combination of all 3 (Jenifer, Moore, and Williams) depending on the situation or matchups.

We should have options.

 

[#BearcatNation]

I think Cumberland only averaged 19 minutes a game

19 minutes to KJ's 29 minutes...they most certainly were not even last season. Excited to see how Cumberland plays in 28-30 min/game.

 

[waterhead]

19 minutes to KJ's 29 minutes...they most certainly were not even last season. Excited to see how Cumberland plays in 28-30 min/game.

On the year yes. But the last month of the season Cumberland was getting 25 minutes and he was one of our most productive perimeter players if not THE most. If he was ready for 25 minutes at end of season he might be ready for 30-35 "when it counts" with another year working on slimming down a bit.

My focus would be on close games. How many minutes will Cumberland get in those games? I don't care if he only gets 20 minutes in blowouts. The yearly average will be lower than big games or games that are too close for comfort.

Evans probably averaged 25 minutes in games with comfortable leads but got 35+ sometimes when the games were close. They key question IMO is how many back up minutes will we need at different positions when games are close.

 

[waterhead]

On the year yes. But the last month of the season Cumberland was getting 25 minutes and he was one of our most productive perimeter players if not THE most. If he was ready for 25 minutes at end of season he might be ready for 30-35 "when it counts" with another year working on slimming down a bit.

My focus would be on close games. How many minutes will Cumberland get in those games? I don't care if he only gets 20 minutes in blowouts. The yearly average will be lower than big games or games that are too close for comfort.

Evans probably averaged 25 minutes in games with comfortable leads but got 35+ sometimes when the games were close. They key question IMO is how many back up minutes will we need at different positions when games are close.

If we break down Cumberland's minutes into 3 parts of the season it looks like this.

First 12 games...14.5 minutes
Next 12 games...19.5 minutes
Last 11 games...24 minutes

Clearly Cronin saw the value in Cumberland as time went on. With KJ out...I could see that progression continuing to 30 or even 35 minutes (in close games) if he can handle it. It would be nice if we had some quality minutes coming from other players of course just in case.

 

[#BearcatNation]

On the year yes. But the last month of the season Cumberland was getting 25 minutes and he was one of our most productive perimeter players if not THE most. If he was ready for 25 minutes at end of season he might be ready for 30-35 "when it counts" with another year working on slimming down a bit.

My focus would be on close games. How many minutes will Cumberland get in those games? I don't care if he only gets 20 minutes in blowouts. The yearly average will be lower than big games or games that are too close for comfort.

Evans probably averaged 25 minutes in games with comfortable leads but got 35+ sometimes when the games were close. They key question IMO is how many back up minutes will we need at different positions when games are close.

If Cumberland makes a similar leap that Evans made from frosh to sophomore...Jesus Christ, look out.

I think next year may be the first time in a looooong time where our entire starting lineup individually averages double-digit points-per-game. It any team can do that, it's this team.

 

[waterhead]

If Cumberland makes a similar leap that Evans made from frosh to sophomore...Jesus Christ, look out.

I think next year may be the first time in a looooong time where our entire starting lineup individually averages double-digit points-per-game. It any team can do that, it's this team.

Yah...tell me about it. At the end of the season I think we were starting to see it already. If he can improve on his end of the year numbers we could see 15 PPG (with 30+ minutes) but it won't be easy with so many options on the team to score. We started to see his freshman shyness start to change late in the season. He was deferring a lot early on to veteran players but I don't think that will happen next year.

He was second on the year to Kyle in points per 40 minutes and he was first in EFG% and TS%. Get him in shape and improve his D a little and I could see him making a similar jump as Evans did.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Yah...tell me about it. At the end of the season I think we were starting to see it already. If he can improve on his end of the year numbers we could see 15 PPG (with 30+ minutes) but it won't be easy with so many options on the team to score. We started to see his freshman shyness start to change late in the season. He was deferring a lot early on to veteran players but I don't think that will happen next year.

He was second on the year to Kyle in points per 40 minutes and he was first in EFG% and TS%. Get him in shape and improve his D a little and I could see him making a similar jump as Evans did.

If JC can stay away from foul trouble he will be the alpha dog on this team. He plays down hill and either gets to the rim or is able to find a teammate. Late in the shot clock him and Broone will be who we want to have the ball. Evans while on occasion can get to the rim that part of his game needs work. Evans will be more effective shooting threes and running on the break with Broone. Defenders will find out in a hurry you really don't want to run at Cumberland because he will pump fake you to death and get to the rim. KJ never had this in his game. With the dribble drive penetration we get from Broone everyone will get some nice looks. Our big issue next year will be playing defense and taking care of the ball. Offensively this will be the most well rounded team we have had under Cronin. Cumberland should be able to give us the closer we have lacked since SK left. A made shot or he can draw the foul.

 

[waterhead]

If Cumberland makes a similar leap that Evans made from frosh to sophomore...Jesus Christ, look out.

I think next year may be the first time in a looooong time where our entire starting lineup individually averages double-digit points-per-game. It any team can do that, it's this team.

It would be hard to imagine which player would not do that. If anyone I could see it being Clark if he is not aggressive with his touches. If he is aggressive I could even see 12-13 PPG or more from all starters. They are all capable.

This assumes Broome will be as advertised...and based on player and coach comments I don't have much reason to believe he won't be. Obviously he will have to play team ball, limit turnovers and play solid defense if he wants to stay in the game.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

If we break down Cumberland's minutes into 3 parts of the season it looks like this.

First 12 games...14.5 minutes
Next 12 games...19.5 minutes
Last 11 games...24 minutes

Clearly Cronin saw the value in Cumberland as time went on. With KJ out...I could see that progression continuing to 30 or even 35 minutes (in close games) if he can handle it. It would be nice if we had some quality minutes coming from other players of course just in case.

Cumberland can handle it. Not even a question.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

If JC can stay away from foul trouble he will be the alpha dog on this team. He plays down hill and either gets to the rim or is able to find a teammate. Late in the shot clock him and Broone will be who we want to have the ball. Evans while on occasion can get to the rim that part of his game needs work. Evans will be more effective shooting threes and running on the break with Broone. Defenders will find out in a hurry you really don't want to run at Cumberland because he will pump fake you to death and get to the rim. KJ never had this in his game. With the dribble drive penetration we get from Broone everyone will get some nice looks. Our big issue next year will be playing defense and taking care of the ball. Offensively this will be the most well rounded team we have had under Cronin. Cumberland should be able to give us the closer we have lacked since SK left. A made shot or he can draw the foul.

Cumberland does need to work on his FTs. If I'm not mistaken, he was in the low 60% range. No reason he shouldn't shoot about 80%.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Cumberland does need to work on his FTs. If I'm not mistaken, he was in the low 60% range. No reason he shouldn't shoot about 80%.

I think your right but I do believe he was shooting them better as the year went on. If I remember Corey him and Washington were terrible against X.

Very excited to see JC next year. Think he will be a difference maker for us going forward

 

[waterhead]

Cumberland can handle it. Not even a question.

Yah...I guess I should have worded that differently. I think Cumberland would be fine with 35 minutes if it were up to him....lol! The question is will coach think he's in shape enough to do it. But after looking a little more we had KJ, Troy, Jacob, Gary, and even Kyle getting over 35 minutes at times. Cronin will probably be OK with it based on that.

Jarron didn't seem to look as gassed as some players out there and he doesn't waste a lot of energy on offense. He's very efficient with limited movement. He's not out there dribbling around a lot. Having another 4 guys who can all score should allow for breather possessions on offense too.

Yep...I think he will be fine

 

[david aka the TYZ]

I think Cumberland only averaged 19 minutes a game

The discussion is comparing his late season numbers and translating them to next year.

 

[waterhead]

I think your right but I do believe he was shooting them better as the year went on. If I remember Corey him and Washington were terrible against X.

Very excited to see JC next year. Think he will be a difference maker for us going forward

There was a 3 game stretch mid season that dropped his average about 6 -%...he went 9-20. Other than that he was around 71%. Would like to see that over 75% next year...and like Jacob said closer to 80% by the time he's done.

No reason for guard/wing players to make less than 3/4 FT's.