2016-2017 Season

BearcatTalk

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What seed will UC get this year in the Tournament?

  • 1-4

    Votes: 24 38.7%

  • 5-8

    Votes: 35 56.5%

  • 9-16

    Votes: 3 4.8%
  • Total voters
    62
Points per FG attempt (FTs and 3s help this)

Nysier Brooks 1.50
Jacob Evans 1.41
Gary Clark 1.40
Jarron Cumberland 1.37
Kyle Washington 1.27
Tre Scott 1.24
Troy Caupain 1.20
Justin Jenifer 1.16
Kevin Johnson 1.10
Quadri Moore 0.94
 
jacobkdoyle said:
Points per FG attempt (FTs and 3s help this)

Nysier Brooks 1.50
Jacob Evans 1.41
Gary Clark 1.40
Jarron Cumberland 1.37
Kyle Washington 1.27
Tre Scott 1.24
Troy Caupain 1.20
Justin Jenifer 1.16
Kevin Johnson 1.10
Quadri Moore 0.94
Click to expand...

Caupain and Johnson, who are playing well right now, are 6th & 8th among the 8 that play 10+ minutes/game. You have to think next year Broom and the other Sg (Evans or Cumberland) will have better P/FGA numbers than Troy and Kevin next year too. Should be even better next year offensively and overall.
 
indydoug said:
Caupain and Johnson, who are playing well right now, are 6th & 8th among the 8 that play 10+ minutes/game. You have to think next year Broom and the other Sg (Evans or Cumberland) will have better P/FGA numbers than Troy and Kevin next year too. Should be even better next year offensively and overall.
Click to expand...

True Shooting percentage is probably a better guide for efficiency (pts per FGA essentially gives a guy a free pass when he misses a free throw); Jenifer actually moves ahead of Caupain on the TS% list - ignoring the walk-ons, only Moore (46.1%) ranks behind Caupain & Johnson (51.7%; 50.7%).

In fairness, however, being the guys stuck handling the ball at the end of the shot clock tends to drive these numbers down; Broome & Jenifer will probably be near the bottom next year; Cumberland and Evans may see their efficiency numbers fall if they have to take more shots or get more ball handling responsibility.

That said, Caupain and Johnson are also the two worst players on the team at finishing at the rim (65.1% and 60.9%, respectively). Cane Broome, for his part, shot just 57% at the rim last year at Sacred Heart, but he took a lot of shots there (making him a more efficient scorer overall).

The point is, I don't think it is a guarantee that their graduation will dramatically affect offensive efficiency - Broome was much better at getting into the paint & drawing fouls when at Sacred Heart, and took the vast majority of his shots either near the basket or outside the arc (something UC needs more of). But he wasn't terribly good at hitting shots from either location. Now, on the one hand his volume will be lower, which should make him more efficient; on the other hand, he will be facing better competition.

The team will look different, and I suspect they will take and make more 3s next year, but increased efficiency is not as simple as removing two of the poorer shooters and sending the shots elsewhere.
 
jacobkdoyle said:
Points per FG attempt (FTs and 3s help this)

Nysier Brooks 1.50
Jacob Evans 1.41
Gary Clark 1.40
Jarron Cumberland 1.37
Kyle Washington 1.27
Tre Scott 1.24
Troy Caupain 1.20
Justin Jenifer 1.16
Kevin Johnson 1.10
Quadri Moore 0.94
Click to expand...

Caupain would be 1.24 if he was shooting FTs at his career norm.
 
Emperor Snapper said:
True Shooting percentage is probably a better guide for efficiency (pts per FGA essentially gives a guy a free pass when he misses a free throw); Jenifer actually moves ahead of Caupain on the TS% list - ignoring the walk-ons, only Moore (46.1%) ranks behind Caupain & Johnson (51.7%; 50.7%).

In fairness, however, being the guys stuck handling the ball at the end of the shot clock tends to drive these numbers down; Broome & Jenifer will probably be near the bottom next year; Cumberland and Evans may see their efficiency numbers fall if they have to take more shots or get more ball handling responsibility.

That said, Caupain and Johnson are also the two worst players on the team at finishing at the rim (65.1% and 60.9%, respectively). Cane Broome, for his part, shot just 57% at the rim last year at Sacred Heart, but he took a lot of shots there (making him a more efficient scorer overall).

The point is, I don't think it is a guarantee that their graduation will dramatically affect offensive efficiency - Broome was much better at getting into the paint & drawing fouls when at Sacred Heart, and took the vast majority of his shots either near the basket or outside the arc (something UC needs more of). But he wasn't terribly good at hitting shots from either location. Now, on the one hand his volume will be lower, which should make him more efficient; on the other hand, he will be facing better competition.

The team will look different, and I suspect they will take and make more 3s next year, but increased efficiency is not as simple as removing two of the poorer shooters and sending the shots elsewhere.
Click to expand...

No doubt mostly true. I was just responding to the post as is. good points though, and I still think they'll be a more efficient team on offense next year.
 
Bearcat513 said:
For what it is worth, I was playing around on RPI Wizard last night and I did it so we lost @SMU and @UCF ( just to pick two losses) and it had us at 27-4 (obviously) and RPI 11, SOS 66.

Not sure how accurate it is, but it shows you how great of a seed we could get as long as we continue to take care of business. Being 27-4, a great RPI, solid SOS and potentially regular season and conference tourney champions...that could be hard to deny as a 2 or a 3. Let's get it.
Click to expand...
That's fun! I wonder what would happen if we split those but took a bad loss which I don't think will happen this yr.
 
Emperor Snapper said:
True Shooting percentage is probably a better guide for efficiency (pts per FGA essentially gives a guy a free pass when he misses a free throw); Jenifer actually moves ahead of Caupain on the TS% list - ignoring the walk-ons, only Moore (46.1%) ranks behind Caupain & Johnson (51.7%; 50.7%).

In fairness, however, being the guys stuck handling the ball at the end of the shot clock tends to drive these numbers down; Broome & Jenifer will probably be near the bottom next year; Cumberland and Evans may see their efficiency numbers fall if they have to take more shots or get more ball handling responsibility.

That said, Caupain and Johnson are also the two worst players on the team at finishing at the rim (65.1% and 60.9%, respectively). Cane Broome, for his part, shot just 57% at the rim last year at Sacred Heart, but he took a lot of shots there (making him a more efficient scorer overall).

The point is, I don't think it is a guarantee that their graduation will dramatically affect offensive efficiency - Broome was much better at getting into the paint & drawing fouls when at Sacred Heart, and took the vast majority of his shots either near the basket or outside the arc (something UC needs more of). But he wasn't terribly good at hitting shots from either location. Now, on the one hand his volume will be lower, which should make him more efficient; on the other hand, he will be facing better competition.

The team will look different, and I suspect they will take and make more 3s next year, but increased efficiency is not as simple as removing two of the poorer shooters and sending the shots elsewhere.
Click to expand...


Post more please. This is really insightful analysis.

Mods, if you're out there maybe we can get a Sticky Thread at the top of the forum for posts like this that are really good and every one should read.
 
jacobkdoyle said:
This is so awesome. One of my all-time favorites. I even named my fish DerMarr when I was a kid lol.

*Sad side note: My dad didn't let the water temperature adjust when cleaning the fish tank so DerMarr died in a bucket of cold water during the cleaning. RIP.
Click to expand...

Damn...tough to read that Jacob. Hope you are okay.
 

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