2016-2017 Season

[mdchick]

If Evans is 100% we are good if he isn't we might be in trouble

 

[waterhead]

My biggest sigh of relief is that we got good minutes from all the guys we had questions about. With the exception of Washington and Brooks. I'm not too worried about Washington being a solid contributor.

Our quality of depth took a huge positive turn imo. We have 4 bigs that can give us minutes and 5 guards/wings that are somewhat interchangeable.

That is really all the depth you need.

 

[UCBearcats]

How does everyone feel about minutes and rotations this season? Any projections on what they could be?

I've never been a fan of Mick's substitution patterns and I think he often tries to get too many players involved.

Seeing as how this team seems a little thin in terms of experienced depth I'd really love to see Mick scale down the number of minutes to his bench players this season. If healthy and not in foul trouble we should be seeing Troy, Evans and Clark for 35 minutes/game. There should be a clear 6, 7 and 8 man on the bench and we shouldn't go much deeper than that with substantial playing time.

In the past it seems like we've tried to adopt a platoon strategy without the talent depth to make it work. When you look at most of the top teams in the country they all have a core group of guys who play the majority of the minutes game in and game out and very few of them run too deep into their benches.

Early in the season against some of the cupcake teams we can go deep and let guys get experience but in the tough games and in conference I'd really like to see Mick employ a new strategy this season in terms of substitutions and playing time.

 

[waterhead]

It will be interesting to see what Brooks has to offer. Last year we red shirted Scott because Quadri started out well making Scott the 5th option at big and 6th option if we were better off playing small ball. There are no minutes available for that type of option when you get to the games that matter.

We can't red shirt Scott again and we aren't going to red shirt Washington, Moore, or Clark. If Brooks doesn't prove to be a better option than one of them...we should let him develop as a red shirt. He will have the same guys to battle next year. I don't want to waste two years of eligibility if we don't have to. I think he's got very good upside.

Can't wait to see him play!

 

[waterhead]

How does everyone feel about minutes and rotations this season? Any projections on what they could be?

I've never been a fan of Mick's substitution patterns and I think he often tries to get too many players involved.

Seeing as how this team seems a little thin in terms of experienced depth I'd really love to see Mick scale down the number of minutes to his bench players this season. If healthy and not in foul trouble we should be seeing Troy, Evans and Clark for 35 minutes/game. There should be a clear 6, 7 and 8 man on the bench and we shouldn't go much deeper than that with substantial playing time.

In the past it seems like we've tried to adopt a platoon strategy without the talent depth to make it work. When you look at most of the top teams in the country they all have a core group of guys who play the majority of the minutes game in and game out and very few of them run too deep into their benches.

Early in the season against some of the cupcake teams we can go deep and let guys get experience but in the tough games and in conference I'd really like to see Mick employ a new strategy this season in terms of substitutions and playing time.

Minutes are tough to figure right now after watching exhibition. I think we have a 9 man rotation...and the 9th man is an emergency big. I can see an 8 man core developing.

 

[waterhead]

Minutes are tough to figure right now after watching exhibition. I think we have a 9 man rotation...and the 9th man is an emergency big. I can see an 8 man core developing.

I will take a stab though...lol! Minutes in big games...

Caupain...35
Evans...35
Clark...30
KJ...27.5
Washington...25
Moore...15
Jenifer...15
Cumberland...15
Scott...2.5

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I will take a stab though...lol! Minutes in big games...

Caupain...35
Evans...35
Clark...30
KJ...27.5
Washington...25
Moore...15
Jenifer...15
Cumberland...15
Scott...2.5

If it's Johnson 27.5 to Cumberland 15, I think my head will explode. Johnson plays hard and he cares. Can't take that away from him. Cumberland just looks like a guy who needs to be on the floor though imo.

 

[kskenyon4]

I will take a stab though...lol! Minutes in big games...

Caupain...35
Evans...35
Clark...30
KJ...27.5
Washington...25
Moore...15
Jenifer...15
Cumberland...15
Scott...2.5

My worry with anyone who averages over 32 for a course of a season gets really bogged down - IE Caupain the last couple years. It really takes its toll come late conference season into the tournament.

I'd like to see the below:

Caupain - 32
Evans - 32
Clark - 28
Washington - 24
KJ - 25
Jenifer - 15
Cumberland - 15
Quadri - 15
Tre Scott - 8
Brooks - 6

 

[#BearcatNation]

I'll take a stab at minutes. I made it out of 200 possible minutes, so these averages are if everyone played in the exact same amount of games. And if we went into overtime zero times. So it's hard to get a very legitimate prediction.

Caupain: 32
Evans: 31
Clark: 30
Washington: 24
Johnson: 22.5
Cumberland: 19
Jenifer: 14
Moore: 10
Scott: 9
Brooks: 8
Tobler: 0.5

 

[justinhub2003]

I'll give it a go. But I'll split it between first half and 2nd half of season:

1st half:
Evans : 32
TC : 31
Clark: 30
KJ : 25
Washington: 25
Cumberland : 20 (15 at SG, 5 at SF)
Jenifer: 10
Quad: 15
Scott: 8
Brooks: 3

2nd half:
TC: 34
Evans: 34
Clark: 32
Washington: 28
KJ: 22
Cumberland : 22 (18 SG / 4 SF)
Jenifer : 8
Moore : 10
Scott: 8
Brooks: 2



Man that's actually really hard to do. When I was making this I was realizing how hard it is to fit brooks into the rotation. Also it seems like Cumberland will get 18 -20 minutes just out of need. I'm not at all comfortable with those predictions. I want jenifer to get 12-15 minutes but can't see it working unless Caupain plays 36 minutes and it also comes at the expense of Cumberland.

 

[GarradJ21]

A 25-6 record is going to be nice this year.

 

[kskenyon4]

I'll give it a go. But I'll split it between first half and 2nd half of season:

1st half:
Evans : 32
TC : 31
Clark: 30
KJ : 25
Washington: 25
Cumberland : 20 (15 at SG, 5 at SF)
Jenifer: 10
Quad: 15
Scott: 8
Brooks: 3

2nd half:
TC: 34
Evans: 34
Clark: 32
Washington: 28
KJ: 22
Cumberland : 22 (18 SG / 4 SF)
Jenifer : 8
Moore : 10
Scott: 8
Brooks: 2



Man that's actually really hard to do. When I was making this I was realizing how hard it is to fit brooks into the rotation. Also it seems like Cumberland will get 18 -20 minutes just out of need. I'm not at all comfortable with those predictions. I want jenifer to get 12-15 minutes but can't see it working unless Caupain plays 36 minutes and it also comes at the expense of Cumberland.

I think the team is in trouble if Jenifer averages 9mpg. He averaged 8.6 last year and we all know how that was too little to develop him.

Also I hope i'm wrong, but I limit Washington's minutes because of fouls, not ability.

 

[UCBearcats]

My worry with anyone who averages over 32 for a course of a season gets really bogged down - IE Caupain the last couple years. It really takes its toll come late conference season into the tournament.

I'd like to see the below:

Caupain - 32
Evans - 32
Clark - 28
Washington - 24
KJ - 25
Jenifer - 15
Cumberland - 15
Quadri - 15
Tre Scott - 8
Brooks - 6

Couldn't disagree more with the players getting bogged down statement. The best players should play a ton of minutes, it's the staffs job to have them ready for the grind of the season.

Look at any top team in the country or any star player. You can't be afraid to have your best players on the floor for as much time as necessary.

 

[kskenyon4]

Couldn't disagree more with the players getting bogged down statement. The best players should play a ton of minutes, it's the staffs job to have them ready for the grind of the season.

Look at any top team in the country or any star player. You can't be afraid to have your best players on the floor for as much time as necessary.

Just going off Caupain and his history. That and if he and Evans average 35mpg or up, I think we leave talented players on the bench for far too long (JJ, Scott, Cumberland).

 

[UCBearcats]

Just going off Caupain and his history. That and if he and Evans average 35mpg or up, I think we leave talented players on the bench for far too long (JJ, Scott, Cumberland).

If those guys earn the PT than so be it. I'm sure Cumberland will push KJ for PT but I guess we'll see how Scott and JJ do.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

Honestly, I think people over think how many minutes players play leading to them wearing out long term. In the grand scheme of things the difference in 32 and 35 minutes is 3 minutes, separated by three or four days in between games. Players don't wear down because they play 35 minutes instead of 32 twice a week. You have to cut down how hard you practice to keep guys fresh. And Mick does that.

Now in game situations you have to be smart about maximizing rest for players. Sub a guy out a minute before a media timeout to give him extra rest and don't play someone an entire half if their bodies can't handle it. Some players can handle long stretches more than others regardless of conditioning. I don't think we have a problem from a coaching standpoint of not KNOWING how to condition players, some of that is on the players to be in the best condition. But back to my main point, I think this is one of those things we as fans over think.

 

[justinhub2003]

I think the team is in trouble if Jenifer averages 9mpg. He averaged 8.6 last year and we all know how that was too little to develop him.

Also I hope i'm wrong, but I limit Washington's minutes because of fouls, not ability.

Sure.. But he also didn't play in every game as well.

Im just not sure how he gets over 10 minutes a game. We know KJ will play 20-25 and we need Cumberland to play 15 at least. Just not sure how it works out..

 

[UCBearcats]

Honestly, I think people over think how many minutes players play leading to them wearing out long term. In the grand scheme of things the difference in 32 and 35 minutes is 3 minutes, separated by three or four days in between games. Players don't wear down because they play 35 minutes instead of 32 twice a week. You have to cut down how hard you practice to keep guys fresh. And Mick does that.

Now in game situations you have to be smart about maximizing rest for players. Sub a guy out a minute before a media timeout to give him extra rest and don't play someone an entire half if their bodies can't handle it. Some players can handle long stretches more than others regardless of conditioning. I don't think we have a problem from a coaching standpoint of not KNOWING how to condition players, some of that is on the players to be in the best condition. But back to my main point, I think this is one of those things we as fans over think.

If by people you mean Mick then I agree 1000%. This is something Mick is always talking about one his radio shows and it's clear that he micro manages it way too much. Let the best players play, it's pretty simple really.

I agree with you, keep it simple, the best players should play. Play them as much as possible together on the floor and give them rest in short spurts when it makes the most sense. If a guy makes a couple mistakes on defense keep him in the game and let him play through it.

 

[justinhub2003]

I was looking at an advanced stats site (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/troy-caupain-1/splits/2016)

And was checking out some Troy Caupain splits from last year.

Some notes:
* TC shot 35% from 3 in Jan and Feb but regressed in March
* TC actually shot much worse from 3 at Home than he did away. He actually shot his highest percentage in nuetral sites. He shot just 28% from 3 at home. Very Strange

Its always fun looking at Splits and seeing how a players tendencies change based on situation.

Even if you look at Troy's Career at Cincy, he shoots 20 points higher in Away games than he does at home. And in his 14 career nuetral court games he nearly shoots 40%.

He is a career 32% 3pt shooter in Fifth Third Arena

 

[kskenyon4]

I was looking at an advanced stats site (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/troy-caupain-1/splits/2016)

And was checking out some Troy Caupain splits from last year.

Some notes:
* TC shot 35% from 3 in Jan and Feb but regressed in March
* TC actually shot much worse from 3 at Home than he did away. He actually shot his highest percentage in nuetral sites. He shot just 28% from 3 at home. Very Strange

Its always fun looking at Splits and seeing how a players tendencies change based on situation.

Even if you look at Troy's Career at Cincy, he shoots 20 points higher in Away games than he does at home. And in his 14 career nuetral court games he nearly shoots 40%.

He is a career 32% 3pt shooter in Fifth Third Arena

Thats interesting shooting statistics considering the margins are extreme.

TC always seem to regress in FG% in march, or thats the way it seems just watching and not looking at stats. My hope/thought was if JJ can play above 10mpg and really spell him, that he's ready to be the guy we saw against UConn all year long.

I looked up KJ's 3 PT FG% split last year....22% away from home, 36% at home. Interesting.