I think if you take some of the reputable top 25 preseason rankings, average them, that is a reasonable predictor. We tend to over analyze our "inside" information. For example pictures of the weight lifting, stories of how Shaquille was bummed out after losing to Kentucky etcetera. I'm just me being more cautious going forward.
We also know that the top four from the preseason top 25 is a pretty good predictor of NCAA tournament success. There are exceptions. Like Michigan State. I'm not sure what Villanova was ranked preseason.