2017-18 Stats/Rankings

[Defense first]

I haven' really been surprised in weeks at our poll #'s other than they split KS between us and X. We move past the obvious teams every week and that is it. We aren't in a great conference. I am happy with our ranking. We haven't even played 4 of our toughest games yet.

It's all going to work itself out as we play the final month. We can really impress some voters. Right now we are just beating teams we are supposed to...which is an accomplishment IMO since many teams are losing to them...but it's not a poll mover.

Going by the rpi metrics we have beaten 8 top 100 teams. I don't mind not moving up a lot, but when the teams a head of you lose it should be automatic to move up, not for them to stay in front. They had no problem dropping us 14 spots after Xavier and Florida. West Virginia losses 4 out if 5 and drops 8 spots. To much bias, rankings are there to rank teams, positive gains for teams winning and negative for losing teams. I don't care who you lose to you should drop at least one spot. Hoping after we win the conferencee the respect will be given to our seed line. Would love a3 seed but seems more and more likely no matter what we do we will be a 4 or lower. Is the committee putting more on the Ken pom or rpi rankings?

 

[GarradJ21]

Going by the rpi metrics we have beaten 8 top 100 teams. I don't mind not moving up a lot, but when the teams a head of you lose it should be automatic to move up, not for them to stay in front. They had no problem dropping us 14 spots after Xavier and Florida. West Virginia losses 4 out if 5 and drops 8 spots. To much bias, rankings are there to rank teams, positive gains for teams winning and negative for losing teams. I don't care who you lose to you should drop at least one spot. Hoping after we win the pressure the respect will be given to our seed line. Would love a3 seed but seems more and more likely no matter what we do we will be a 4 or lower. Is the committee putting more on the Ken pom or rpi rankings?

The best seed line of a 4 is not true.. It's too hard to say what we will get because we have 10 games left and a conference tournament, but to think we can't get higher than a 4 is ridiculous.

Assuming we don't get tripped up by a UConn or Tulane I look at it as 5 games left

Home against Houston
@ SMU
@Houston
Home against WSU
@ WSU

We go 4-1, I'd say we are for sure a 3 seed or better. Gotta get a conference tournament championship under our belt as well and then really consider a 2 or 1 seed.

We win out (which is not impossible) I guarantee a 1 seed.

 

[ervins84]

it is important to note though the total votes difference by week, and not just the actual ranking. We did "gain" more votes than any team in this grouping, the gap was just pretty big from 9 to 8 previously and not as closely lumped as the other spots, but that looks to be changing.

Either way, who cares. Kpom #6 and not far from #4!


Last Week
#9 Cincy 1087
#8 Xavier 1180
#7 Wva 1217
#6 MSU 1243
#5 Kansas 1338
#4 Duke 1439

This week:
#8 UC 1208 +121 votes
#7 Kansas 1224 minus 114 votes
#6 Xavier 1278 +98 votes
#5 MSU 1347 +104 votes
#4 Duke 1372 Minus 67 votes

 

[Helicopter]

The best seed line of a 4 is not true.. It's too hard to say what we will get because we have 10 games left and a conference tournament, but to think we can't get higher than a 4 is ridiculous.

Assuming we don't get tripped up by a UConn or Tulane I look at it as 5 games left

Home against Houston
@ SMU
@Houston
Home against WSU
@ WSU

We go 4-1, I'd say we are for sure a 3 seed or better. Gotta get a conference tournament championship under our belt as well and then really consider a 2 or 1 seed.

We win out (which is not impossible) I guarantee a 1 seed.

If we win out (not impossible but unlikely) than you are looking at top 5 RPI, top 5 kenpom, top 5 BPI, which is a virtual lock for a 1 seed.

 

[justinhub2003]

I think this team has a high seed ceiling but it’s very fragile .

If we drop 2 in a row @houston and @smu, they will drop us like a bad habit. But if we can only lose 1 game we can get a 1 or 2 seed.

 

[justinhub2003]

Let’s be real though. Our conference schedule has been the easiest in the conference.

From here on out nothing will be a given

 

[GarradJ21]

I think this team has a high seed ceiling but it’s very fragile .

If we drop 2 in a row @houston and @smu, they will drop us like a bad habit. But if we can only lose 1 game we can get a 1 or 2 seed.

If we lose those 2 games, we have bigger issues than our seed line. There's no reason to lose back to back against SMU and Houston (this year). I get it, they are better than the majority of the opponents we have played, but still, we can't be losing those 2 games. If we would lose 2 @SMU and @Houston we would really need to be thankful we aren't in the Big 12 and really need to question our coach and team. If our best team in 12 years loses these games I might be done. Sorry I went on a rampage but seriously, this should not happen this year.

 

[justinhub2003]

If we lose those 2 games, we have bigger issues than our seed line. There's no reason to lose back to back against SMU and Houston (this year). I get it, they are better than the majority of the opponents we have played, but still, we can't be losing those 2 games. If we would lose 2 @SMU and @Houston we would really need to be thankful we aren't in the Big 12 and really need to question our coach and team. If our best team in 12 years loses these games I might be done. Sorry I went on a rampage but seriously, this should not happen this year.

Zero shame in losing to top 50 teams on the road

Duke lost 2 times on the road to worse teams

 

[GarradJ21]

Zero shame in losing to top 50 teams on the road

Ok, so we sit there and beat our chests about our team but it would be no big deal losing 2 in a row to two bubble teams? I'm sorry, any other year I would agree, but if we think we are a national championship type team (which I do), then yes, there's some serious shame.

 

[justinhub2003]

Ok, so we sit there and beat our chests about our team but it would be no big deal losing 2 in a row to two bubble teams. I'm sorry, any other year I would agree, if we think we are a national championship type team, then yes, there's some serious shame.

We’re not a national championship team.

If things broke absolutely perfect, then maybe but no team has win the nati with an offense or defense in the 60’s

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Ok, so we sit there and beat our chests about our team but it would be no big deal losing 2 in a row to two bubble teams? I'm sorry, any other year I would agree, but if we think we are a national championship type team (which I do), then yes, there's some serious shame.

No need to borrow trouble.

 

[justinhub2003]

Do you think duke is not good bc they dropped 2 road games to teams worse than Houston and smu ??

 

[sedziobs]

Maybe we we need to rename this the "2017-18 Expectations and Feelings" thread.

 

[justinhub2003]

Sorry I won’t say we aren’t a national championship team but we aren’t a favorite for it just based on history.

Final four? Yes

But winning it all will have nothing to do if we dropped games to Houston and smu

 

[GarradJ21]

I don't care about Duke or anyone else. Those teams play in tougher conferences than us and go through a lot more adversity then we face. UC has the best talent and team we have had under Cronin, if we can't win at least 1 game @SMU and @ Houston I think that's sad. You won't say anything to change my opinion.

 

[GarradJ21]

Maybe we we need to rename this the "2017-18 Expectations and Feelings" thread.

Lol good point.

 

[indydoug]

it is important to note though the total votes difference by week, and not just the actual ranking. We did "gain" more votes than any team in this grouping, the gap was just pretty big from 9 to 8 previously and not as closely lumped as the other spots, but that looks to be changing.

Either way, who cares. Kpom #6 and not far from #4!


Last Week
#9 Cincy 1087
#8 Xavier 1180
#7 Wva 1217
#6 MSU 1243
#5 Kansas 1338
#4 Duke 1439

This week:
#8 UC 1208 +121 votes
#7 Kansas 1224 minus 114 votes
#6 Xavier 1278 +98 votes
#5 MSU 1347 +104 votes
#4 Duke 1372 Minus 67 votes

Interesting that there are clearly 2 breakway tiers among the top 6 in KenPom. Villanova , Virginia & Purdue in Tier #1 and Duke, MSU & UC in Tier #2. Number 7 Gonzaga is far behind UC.

 

[indydoug]

We’re not a national championship team.

If things broke absolutely perfect, then maybe but no team has win the nati with an offense or defense in the 60’s

Not to quibble with your point but Duke is #58 on defense. Are they not a championship team, either?

 

[GarradJ21]

Not to quibble with your point but Duke is #58 on defense. Are they not a championship team, either?

He pays too much attention to what's on paper. If you don't think we have enough to win the national championship then ok, that's fine. I'm of course biased. But if he feels Duke doesn't have what it takes to win a national championship either that's shocking.

 

[justinhub2003]

Not to quibble with your point but Duke is #58 on defense. Are they not a championship team, either?

if they win it all, I'll be surprised.

These aren't my opinions. Just historical fact.


Typically teams who win it all have a top 25 Defense and Offense.

2017: UNC #9 off, #11 Defense
2016: Nova: #3 off, #5 defense
2015: Duke: #3, #11
2014: UCONN: #39, #10
2013: Ville: #7, #1
2012: UK: #2, #7
2011: UCONN: #19, #15
2010: Duke: #1, #5
2009: UNC: #1, #18
2008: Kansas: #2, #1


So obviously UCONN's 2014 run is the closest thing to us that won a national champions and they had Shabaz Napier. They went on a great run. Thats a tough road though