2017-18 Stats/Rankings

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waterhead said:
I am curious about what people think of kenpom. There is a clear top 3 this year and then a clear next top 3 (and we are in there).

Kenpom has the top 5 teams virtually nailed along with the polls. From there it gets a little sketchy. We are #6 Kenpom (in no danger of dropping) and #8 polls. Eggs is #13 Kenpom and #6 in polls.

What I am wondering is if Kenpom has the formula down. We have yet to play the hardest part of our schedule...but that is not supposed to matter because it gets adjusted by the strength of each team we play. Are we the 6th best team in the country or is this somehow inflated by playing poor competition overall?

Is Kenpom favoring blowouts against the bottom and not weighting games at the top enough? How else can we be #6 when we lost to Eggs and FLA...the two best teams on our schedule so far? We take care of business in the games we should...but we aren't winning the top level games year over year. Should we be ranked lower right now because of that?
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im pretty sure kenpom wrote something about he thinks he could have a flaw in his rankings for teams that have pretty weak schedules. Think WSU, St. Mary's, Gonzaga in the past. He just isn't sure how to balance it out.


I can't find the quote now but I swear I read that around the start of this season.
 
cincrulz11 said:
im pretty sure kenpom wrote something about he thinks he could have a flaw in his rankings for teams that have pretty weak schedules. Think WSU, St. Mary's, Gonzaga in the past. He just isn't sure how to balance it out.


I can't find the quote now but I swear I read that around the start of this season.
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I guess the cool thing is that the committee is giving more credence to the non power conferences.

Assuming KenPom can make some adjustments I am not sure how to determine our actual strength. I feel like it's a bit high since we haven't been clicking on Offense lately.

Yes we are killing it in D...but we need balance and to stop dropping in offensive efficiency.
 
How did Gonzaga do last year. Does anyone remember. They were awarded a 1 seed even with the weak conference they were in. I know they beat Iowa State OOC and St Mary's in conference I believe both times.
 
cincrulz11 said:
im pretty sure kenpom wrote something about he thinks he could have a flaw in his rankings for teams that have pretty weak schedules. Think WSU, St. Mary's, Gonzaga in the past. He just isn't sure how to balance it out. I can't find the quote now but I swear I read that around the start of this season.
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He updated his rankings methodology four years ago:
https://kenpom.com/blog/pomeroy-ratings-version-2-0/

The algorithm behind the Pomeroy Ratings is getting some tweaks to handle runaway scoring margins...the influence of expected lopsided wins is minimized. For instance, last season’s non-conference games involving Grambling would be largely ignored. Whether a team beat the Tigers by 30 or 60 would make little difference in its rating.

So I’ve dusted off that algorithm, spent some time tuning the various parameters, and applied it to the efficiency model to improve the predictive power of adjusted offense and adjusted defense. These aren’t changes to make everyone feel good about limiting the influence of buy-games against last-place SWAC teams. They’re done because they improve the predictive power of the system. In backtesting over the past 11 seasons, average error in February and March game predictions under this system decreases by about one percent (8.33 to 8.25).

(I don’t think you can come up with a prediction method that will have an error of less than eight points. And if you can, don’t tell anyone! Because that would be a really good system. That should also tell you a lot about why it’s difficult to anticipate what will happen in a single contest between teams. It’s also a good illustration of the large role randomness in any single game. So even if you know it all, you can’t possibly know it ALL.)
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GarradJ21 said:
How did Gonzaga do last year. Does anyone remember. They were awarded a 1 seed even with the weak conference they were in. I know they beat Iowa State OOC and St Mary's in conference I believe both times.
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Other top 100 RPI teams they beat were Arizona, Florida, Tennessee, Akron and San Diego St.
 
sedziobs said:
Other top 100 RPI teams they beat were Arizona, Florida, Tennessee, Akron and San Diego St.
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Yes...it was legit. St Marys was #17 I think. They only had 1 loss regular season in the last game I think. Then they went to the NC game. The seed was right. We aren't on that wavelength right now.

I think we can be. We just need to get that offensive number up. There is room for sure. Defense is out of this world.
 
Via https://www.sports-reference.com/

Four Bearcats in the Top 15 in Defensive Rating:

1. Gary Clark Cincinnati 77.0
2. Isaiah Wilkins Virginia 78.2
3. Jaren Jackson Jr. Michigan State 82.1
4. Jemerrio Jones New Mexico State 82.3
5. Mohamed Bamba Texas 83.7
6. Kyle Washington Cincinnati 83.9
7. Jacob Evans Cincinnati 84.3
8. Keonta Vernon Grand Canyon 84.3
9. Sagaba Konate West Virginia 84.8
10. Tacko Fall UCF 84.9
11. Mike Watkins Penn State 85.5
12. DeShawn Freeman Rutgers 86.0
13. Ty Jerome Virginia 86.1
14. Raymond Spalding Louisville 86.2
15. Jarron Cumberland Cincinnati 86.3
16. Jevon Carter West Virginia 86.8
17. Robert Williams Texas A&M 86.9
18. Nick Ward Michigan State 87.0
19. Loudon Love Wright State 87.2
20. Abdul Ado Mississippi State 87.5
 
Fullam33 said:
Via https://www.sports-reference.com/

Four Bearcats in the Top 15 in Defensive Rating:

1. Gary Clark Cincinnati 77.0
2. Isaiah Wilkins Virginia 78.2
3. Jaren Jackson Jr. Michigan State 82.1
4. Jemerrio Jones New Mexico State 82.3
5. Mohamed Bamba Texas 83.7
6. Kyle Washington Cincinnati 83.9
7. Jacob Evans Cincinnati 84.3
8. Keonta Vernon Grand Canyon 84.3
9. Sagaba Konate West Virginia 84.8
10. Tacko Fall UCF 84.9
11. Mike Watkins Penn State 85.5
12. DeShawn Freeman Rutgers 86.0
13. Ty Jerome Virginia 86.1
14. Raymond Spalding Louisville 86.2
15. Jarron Cumberland Cincinnati 86.3
16. Jevon Carter West Virginia 86.8
17. Robert Williams Texas A&M 86.9
18. Nick Ward Michigan State 87.0
19. Loudon Love Wright State 87.2
20. Abdul Ado Mississippi State 87.5
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Who would have thought Jarron Cumberland would be 15th in the country at a defensive statistic
 
Ok here is my 1st draft of this weeks reddit poll submission:

I am putting Michigan state ahead of UC and Xavier, but they actually don't have the resume to deserve it, but i think the talent on that team is undeniable and they aren't losing.

Michigan state has just 2 Tier 1 wins, compared to UC's 4 and Xavier's 5. And if you combine Tier 1 and 2 wins, UC has 11, XU has 10 and Michigan state as a very poor 6 total Tier 1&2 wins. I listened to a podcast of the #1 ranked Bracketologist and he said if the top 16 seeds were selected today, he doesn't think MSU would be in it.

Im tempted to move UC and X above them in my official submission. We will see.

  1. Villanova
  2. Virginia
  3. Purdue
  4. Michigan State
  5. Xavier
  6. Cincinnati
  7. Texas Tech
  8. Auburn
  9. St Marys
  10. Duke
  11. Gonzaga
  12. Ohio State
  13. Kansas
  14. Tennessee
  15. Clemson
  16. Arizona
  17. Rhode Island
  18. Oklahoma
  19. Michigan
  20. Wichita State
  21. NC State
  22. Kentucky
  23. West Virginia
  24. Nevada
  25. Washington



Right off the bat I'll say that i don't feel UK, WVU, Nevada and even Washington would be ranked in the top 25 in a normal year. But because everyone is dog shit, losing and looking bad still means you can be ranked. Their is a very small poor of teams to choose from that deserve to be ranked.

Add that, I think St Marys is overrated but I can't reward teams who lose to teams they shouldn't.

Let me know what you think.
 
justinhub2003 said:
I listened to a podcast of the #1 ranked Bracketologist

  1. Villanova
  2. Virginia
  3. Purdue
  4. Michigan State
  5. Xavier
  6. Cincinnati
  7. Texas Tech
  8. Auburn
  9. St Marys
  10. Duke
  11. Gonzaga
  12. Ohio State
  13. Kansas
  14. Tennessee
  15. Clemson
  16. Arizona
  17. Rhode Island
  18. Oklahoma
  19. Michigan
  20. Wichita State
  21. NC State
  22. Kentucky
  23. West Virginia
  24. Nevada
  25. Washington


Let me know what you think.
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What's the podcast called? Always looking to add new ones.


Nothing jumps out as crazy to me. All seems reasonable/justifiable.

I do think Tennessee is a little too low, and I probably wouldn't have NC State that high, but whatever that's pretty trivial.

I also think Duke is too low, but I understand your logic and it's debatable.

I'll get labeled a homer for putting XU this low, but I really think even this ranking is generous to them. They're literally in the top 15 in kpom luck and have been extremely fortunate in a lot of close games.

Off the top of my head, but this is what my ranking would be, not what I think it will be. This isn't résumé only, but more like my power ranks.

Hopefully I didn't leave out any obvious ones.

1. Nova
2. VA
3. Purdue
4. Michigan State
5. Cincy
6. Duke
7. Auburn
8. Tennessee
9. Tex Tech
10. XU
11. Kansas
12. Zaga
13. Arizona
14. St Mary's
15. Ohio state
16. UNC
17. Clemson
18. Michigan
19. Wichita St
20. Nevada
21. Kentucky
22. Butler
23. Creighton
24. Rhode Island
25. Oklahoma
 
Last edited:
ervins84 said:
What's the podcast called? Always looking to add new ones.


Nothing jumps out as crazy to me. All seems reasonable/justifiable.

I do think Tennessee is a little too low, and I probably wouldn't have NC State that high, but whatever that's pretty trivial.

I also think Duke is too low, but I understand your logic and it's debatable.

I'll get labeled a homer for putting XU this low, but I really think even this ranking is generous to them. They're literally in the top 15 in kpom luck and have been extremely fortunate in a lot of close games.

Off the top of my head, but this is what my ranking would be, not what I think it will be. This isn't résumé only, but more like my power ranks.

Hopefully I didn't leave out any obvious ones.

1. Nova
2. VA
3. Purdue
4. Michigan State
5. Cincy
6. Duke
7. Auburn
8. Tennessee
9. Tex Tech
10. XU
11. Kansas
12. Zaga
13. Arizona
14. St Mary's
15. Ohio state
16. UNC
17. Clemson
18. Michigan
19. Wichita St
20. Nevada
21. Kentucky
22. Butler
23. Creighton
24. Rhode Island
25. Oklahoma
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It’s called screen the screener. The latest episode had a great on talking seed lines. UC was a 3 seed.
 
justinhub2003 said:
I listened to a podcast of the #1 ranked Bracketologist
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Do they have a bracketology page? According to bracketmatrix's methodology, Dave Ommen at Bracketville is ranked #1. I don't see Screen the Screener or Mike Randle/ Gus Kearns at first glance though.
 
justinhub2003 said:
ESPN's Power Rankings are just comical at this point.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...xavier-musketeers-candidates-fourth-no-1-seed

UC at #9 after Zero movement. Also Duke is at #7 and somehow UNC is #15. Its pretty convenient that they keep UNC in the top 15 because they play each other on their network this week.
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Yeah and Clemson jumps us. And up 6 spots. After beating UNC and squeaking by wake forest. Could you imagine the cats ever jumping six spots with a couple wins like that lol. ESPN is obsessed with the ACC
 

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