@Iowa State

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Interesting that on the aggregate level they aren't a great three point shooting team (33.3%, 202nd in the nation) or a free throw shooting team (63.5%, 305th in the nation).
The three point numbers are weighed down by Naz Long who is just 29.5% w/ the most attempts on the team (13-44). Matt Thomas has been solid 36.7% (11-30).

Burton, who for as good as he looks to the eye, has a sub 100 ORtg and because he has such he has a such a high usage. He's the kind of guy that looks awful for 10 minutes and then amazing for 10 minutes and then awful again. Those players are really scary because you never know when they'll get rolling and a few missed shots are not going to deter him.

Obviously Monte Morris is incredible. He's everything we want Troy Caupain to be. He's efficient, he doesn't turn the ball over and makes big plays down the stretch. He's shot well from three this year too (9-21).

The grad transfer who we looked at, Merrill Holden, seems to be contributing well off the bench. Obviously with the wing talent they have, his usage is quite low.

Over 50% of their line-ups involve Long, Thomas and Morris on the floor together. Our defensive weaknesses will be exposed by any of those three.

I see KenPom has us as a 4 point underdog and Sagarin has us as a 7 point under dog. I'll split the difference and say Iowa State is favored by 5.5.

My prediction? We get caught up in the faster pace game in the first half, and though we play well the game is still up for grabs. Iowa State pulls away in the second half when micro manager Mick comes out...

Iowa State 77
Cincinnati 72
 
Last edited:
Bearcat513 said:
Sad thing is, we may have been due to how slow we were playing in previous years...
Click to expand...
Wrong. Here's how our tempo has gone (from 2016 to 2010):

2016 65.0 (new 30 second shot clock)
2015 60.0
2014 63.0
2013 63.9
2012 64.7
2011 65.4
2010 68.2

So from 2010 to 2015 our pace steadily decreased in each season.
 
Bearcat_NTS said:
Interesting that on the aggregate level they aren't a great three point shooting team (33.3%, 202nd in the nation) or a free throw shooting team (63.5%, 305th in the nation).
The three point numbers are weighed down by Naz Long who is just 29.5% w/ the most attempts on the team (13-44). Matt Thomas has been solid 36.7% (11-30).

Burton, who for as good as he looks to the eye, has a sub 100 ORtg and because he has such he has a such a high usage. He's the kind of guy that looks awful for 10 minutes and then amazing for 10 minutes and then awful again. Those players are really scary because you never know when they'll get rolling and a few missed shots are not going to deter him.

Obviously Monte Morris is incredible. He's everything we want Troy Caupain to be. He's efficient, he doesn't turn the ball over and makes big plays down the stretch. He's shot well from three this year too (9-21).

The grad transfer who we looked at, Merrill Holden, seems to be contributing well off the bench. Obviously with the wing talent they have, his usage is quite low.

Over 50% of their line-ups involve Long, Thomas and Morris on the floor together. Our defensive weaknesses will be exposed by any of those three.

I see KenPom has us as a 4 point underdog and Sagarin has us as a 7 point under dog. I'll split the difference and say Iowa State is favored by 5.5.

My prediction? We get caught up in the faster pace game in the first half, and though we play well the game is still up for grabs. Iowa State pulls away in the second half when micro manager Mick comes out...

Iowa State 77
Cincinnati 72
Click to expand...

Nice break down! Mick's 3 keys to winning. Don't turn it over, make a decent percentage of shots, and rebound the ball well on the defensive end. Can't give them extra opportunities.
 
jds513 said:
Cronin mentioned our kenpom efficiencies near the end. I'm glad he is taking note of that stuff. It is a really telling statistic in the new age of advanced stats.
Click to expand...

Hopefully he's not actually this late to the party, because this NY times article on Brad Stevens came out in 2011, and fwiw, was relatively well known years before that (I'm just a fan and have followed closely since the Florida back to back title runs)

Some good quotes too from Brandon Miller and Archie Miller before they became head coaches.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/sports/ncaabasketball/24ncaa.html
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Bearcat_NTS said:
Interesting that on the aggregate level they aren't a great three point shooting team (33.3%, 202nd in the nation) or a free throw shooting team (63.5%, 305th in the nation).
The three point numbers are weighed down by Naz Long who is just 29.5% w/ the most attempts on the team (13-44). Matt Thomas has been solid 36.7% (11-30).

Burton, who for as good as he looks to the eye, has a sub 100 ORtg and because he has such he has a such a high usage. He's the kind of guy that looks awful for 10 minutes and then amazing for 10 minutes and then awful again. Those players are really scary because you never know when they'll get rolling and a few missed shots are not going to deter him.

Obviously Monte Morris is incredible. He's everything we want Troy Caupain to be. He's efficient, he doesn't turn the ball over and makes big plays down the stretch. He's shot well from three this year too (9-21).

The grad transfer who we looked at, Merrill Holden, seems to be contributing well off the bench. Obviously with the wing talent they have, his usage is quite low.

Over 50% of their line-ups involve Long, Thomas and Morris on the floor together. Our defensive weaknesses will be exposed by any of those three.

I see KenPom has us as a 4 point underdog and Sagarin has us as a 7 point under dog. I'll split the difference and say Iowa State is favored by 5.5.

My prediction? We get caught up in the faster pace game in the first half, and though we play well the game is still up for grabs. Iowa State pulls away in the second half when micro manager Mick comes out...

Iowa State 77
Cincinnati 72
Click to expand...

is there a spread on the game?
 
If Iowa St. plays 4 guards we need to take advantage of our size. It is imperative that Kyle stay out of foul trouble. My fear is we will see a bunch of dribble penetration that is aimed right at the rim with him getting in foul trouble contesting shots after they have blown by our guards.
 
WAITE HOYT 2 said:
If Iowa St. plays 4 guards we need to take advantage of our size. It is imperative that Kyle stay out of foul trouble. My fear is we will see a bunch of dribble penetration that is aimed right at the rim with him getting in foul trouble contesting shots after they have blown by our guards.
Click to expand...

We are definitely going to have to do great on switches with guys like Evans and Clark/Scott to protect Kyle. I am hoping Clark will start but I kind of like Scott's face up ability and mid range jumper in this game. Someone will have a miss match on offense between Clark or Scott. They will have 3-4 inches on someone...maybe more with reach figured in.
 
waterhead said:
We are definitely going to have to do great on switches with guys like Evans and Clark/Scott to protect Kyle. I am hoping Clark will start but I kind of like Scott's face up ability and mid range jumper in this game. Someone will have a miss match on offense between Clark or Scott. They will have 3-4 inches on someone...maybe more with reach figured in.
Click to expand...
The good thing about Scotts game moving forward is we can play him and Gary in the paint if Kyle is in foul trouble. Gary at the 5 and Scott at the 4. If the refs aren't calling every touch foul we should be OK. But you know how it goes on the road.
 
ISU fans on their board think this game is in the bags. One said they see it being a game for 25 minutes. I see it being a close game to the end.
 
Chipper1221 said:
ISU fans on their board think this game is in the bags. One said they see it being a game for 25 minutes. I see it being a close game to the end.
Click to expand...

ISU's home win % in the last few years is insane. From 2012-2015 then went 62-5 at home. I think these teams are pretty even on a neutral floor, but since it's at Hilton, ISU probably thinks they have already won.
 
you gotta check out their bard. There are a lot of comments about this website and also a link to this thread. one comment i found interesting is I think we are better in most spots, and I'm not going in thinking this is a loss, but they are always well coached and play tough, physical defense
 
Chipper1221 said:
ISU fans on their board think this game is in the bags. One said they see it being a game for 25 minutes. I see it being a close game to the end.[/QUOTE

I hope cincy comes out on fire. I want to see Washington caupain and Evans to put on a show while everyone is watching. This is Micks most talented starting 5 since 2012. We need to win games like this for team confidence as well as confidence for fans to know the squad can turn it on when the competition is amped up.
Click to expand...
 
sorry but this comment had me rollin'

Also, apparently they have a chick named Jennifer that plays for them. More often than not Jennifers are hot, so that should be fun

Most of them on there give us respect but predict a late game pull away...i hate to admit that i can see that happening
 

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