NCAA Tournament

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How far will UC make it in the NCAA Tournament?

  • Lose in the 1st round

    Votes: 7 12.1%
  • 2nd round

    Votes: 11 19.0%
  • Sweet 16

    Votes: 20 34.5%
  • Elite 8

    Votes: 18 31.0%
  • Final 4

    Votes: 1 1.7%
  • National Championship Game

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • National Champions

    Votes: 1 1.7%

  • Total voters
    58
Lol try not to think about that from 5 or so years ago when we had no offense to match. We have an offense and more importantly could get a post game with them. They don't have oversized bigs like a Baylor team.

I think we are better against big teams than the teams that spead you out and shoot. Teams shoot well against us from 3 because we help a lot on defense. You can get away with that against Tulane and Houston, you can't against duke
 
I think we are better against big teams than the teams that spead you out and shoot. Teams shoot well against us from 3 because we help a lot on defense. You can get away with that against Tulane and Houston, you can't against duke

I see what you mean I just hate if we need easy buckets and we have no post (UCF game)
 
A lot has been said about whether or not we can get a 4 seed if we win the tourney. I think it has to be an option on the table for the committee.

I like the idea of getting the 4 seed and getting a site closer to home but it doesn't always happen that way. If we were to get penciled in as the last 4 seed we would potentially see the toughest of the 13 seeds and get the last slot in terms of site preference. Whereas if we were the top 5 seed we could get the easiest of the 12 seeds. I might prefer the worst of the 12 seeds to the best of the 13 seeds. There is upset potential in the 12 and 13 seeds but the worst of these seeds are probably overmatched by the 4 and 5 seeds where the best of them could just need a good night for them and a bad night for the other team to pull off the upset. The overmatched seeds don't have much chance in most scenarios.

Bottom line is I don't want to get the last 4 seed and get completely shafted by the committee in terms of matchups and site preference. Maybe we would be better off getting the 5 seed and seeing a decent matchup.

I want a 4 seed. It's better than a 5.
 
90% is probably about right. If we could get Purdue and ND to lose right away and we win our tourney is probably the only chance we have. That's a lot of ifs and it is still not a guarantee even if it does happen.

I'm okay with that. I fear the committee could stack the deck if we are the last 4 seed because we are not a power conference school.

If we win the conference tourney and we get a 5 seed it's just more bulletin board material for our guys getting disrespected like the conference awards.

Everything I've heard all week has previewed 7 conference tournaments...thus making it P7.
 
You really never know. You also said we wouldn't crack 15 once after the SMU loss and we did twice.. No disrespect I'm just saying no one knows.

Yeah throwing percentages on what seed we'll get seems silly to me. I get it. It's what fans do. Just seems random and feels like a guess that's not worth defending. Like I think there a 22% chance we're a 4. Who's going to tell me I'm wrong?
 
You really never know. You also said we wouldn't crack 15 once after the SMU loss and we did twice.. No disrespect I'm just saying no one knows.


To be Fair. we were exactly 15th 2x times. I just meant we'd never get back to where we were.

Also AP poll is really subjective, our top 50 wins aren't. We only have 3. the teams competing for a 4 seed with us, kinda kill us in Top 50 wins.
 
To be Fair. we were exactly 15th 2x times. I just meant we'd never get back to where we were.

Also AP poll is really subjective, our top 50 wins aren't. We only have 3. the teams competing for a 4 seed with us, kinda kill us in Top 50 wins.

You don't think drawing a line at top 50 wins and completely ignoring 2-3 wins against #51 is subjective? Picking the top 50 is an arbitrary number and thus is subjective in it's very nature.

I mean this year we have a vested interest in the #51 ranked team...but I have never liked having arbitrary cutoff points. It's ridiculous. Probably why the committee will be using metrics in the future. As it stands we are a 5 seed in metrics...but we could sneak in the top 16 if we play well.
 
You don't think drawing a line at top 50 wins and completely ignoring 2-3 wins against #51 is subjective? Picking the top 50 is an arbitrary number and thus is subjective in it's very nature.

I mean this year we have a vested interest in the #51 ranked team...but I have never liked having arbitrary cutoff points. It's ridiculous. Probably why the committee will be using metrics in the future. As it stands we are a 5 seed in metrics...but we could sneak in the top 16 if we play well.

You have to measure by wins against the Top 14.245% of D1, not Top 14.53%. And of course this is strictly by RPI too. The worst ranking system ever.
 
You have to measure by wins against the Top 14.245% of D1, not Top 14.53%. And of course this is strictly by RPI too. The worst ranking system ever.

At the selection committee table. One guy looks around the table and says guys...I just noticed a team which has 5 wins against teams ranked #51 to #58 in RPI. Shouldn't we at least consider this?

Looks around the table....everyone ROFL!!!

(Trap door opens and man disappears with his seat)
 
Yeah throwing percentages on what seed we'll get seems silly to me. I get it. It's what fans do. Just seems random and feels like a guess that's not worth defending. Like I think there a 22% chance we're a 4. Who's going to tell me I'm wrong?

Calm down guys. You are being a little dramatic. I wasn't being scientific. I just PERSONALLY feel pretty confident we have a very likely chance of being a 5 seed.

You guys can be hopeful for whatever you want. But nothing I see personally see says were a 4 seed, a few things have to really fall for us to get it.

I just see a lot of teams ahead of us with quality wins.

Things that helped: Virginia losing, Butler losing,
Things that hurt: FSU advancing, Notre Dame Advancing,

I think we are competing with Butler, FSU, ND, Purdue, SMU, West Virginia

1: Zags, nova, kansas, Pac 12 winner
2. UK, UNC, Pac 12 Championship loser, Louisville
3. the 3rd pac 12 team, Baylor, Florida, Duke
4. FSU, Purdue, West Virginia,


This is around where I think it stands as of now. If ND beats FSU, I think they both get 4 seeds. and it fills the spot, then it depends on what on what Purdue does.

For us to get a 4 seed, we need Purdue to lose, ND to lose and then us beat SMU. And it has to be SMU who we beat not anyone else. I also feel that SMU's ceiling is a 5 seed. Even if they beat us. Even worse if they win the AAC and don't have to beat us.

Just my thoughts and predictions.

I'd rather be a top 5 seed that doesn't play on the west coast than to be the worst 4 seed on the west coast.
 
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You have to measure by wins against the Top 14.245% of D1, not Top 14.53%. And of course this is strictly by RPI too. The worst ranking system ever.

I know you hate the RPI. I do to. I can't wait till they use different metrics.

BUT current team sheets do use RPI.


So our RPI is 13th which is our BEST ranking.
Our top 50 wins is 3
Our KENPOM is 20

Like were better off if they use RPI this year for us not kenpom.
 
I know you hate the RPI. I do to. I can't wait till they use different metrics.

BUT current team sheets do use RPI.


So our RPI is 13th which is our BEST ranking.
Our top 50 wins is 3
Our KENPOM is 20

Like were better off if they use RPI this year for us not kenpom.

I'm just confused by what actually matters. RPI is used, but Top 50 wins are weighed more heavily than overall RPI rank? If using RPI is important, then why not use that more than the arbitrary cutoff to determine quality of wins based on those same RPI rankings?

Also, random question...Do they not do last 10 games anymore? Bc Baylor I think has a .500 record lately, maybe worse. They aren't good. But they'll get a great seed.

I sort of suffer from analysis paralysis this time of year. I just wish people who actually know the teams inside and out could determine who the best teams are. We all know who is good and who isn't, but I feel like the seeding is muddied up into this mess where certain things apply to some teams and other things are used for someone else. If you use RPI and we're 13th, why not stop there on that ranking? It's just digging way to deep imo if we're ultimately docked a seed bc Houston is ranked 51. The idea that losing to them tomorrow helps our resume says it all.
 
Calm down guys. You are being a little dramatic. I wasn't being scientific. I just PERSONALLY feel pretty confident we have a very likely chance of being a 5 seed.

You guys can be hopeful for whatever you want. But nothing I see personally see says were a 4 seed, a few things have to really fall for us to get it.

I just see a lot of teams ahead of us with quality wins.

Things that helped: Virginia losing, Butler losing,
Things that hurt: FSU advancing, Notre Dame Advancing,

I think we are competing with Butler, FSU, ND, Purdue, SMU, West Virginia

1: Zags, nova, kansas, Pac 12 winner
2. UK, UNC, Pac 12 Championship loser, Louisville
3. the 3rd pac 12 team, Baylor, Florida, Duke
4. FSU, Purdue, West Virginia,


This is around where I think it stands as of now. If ND beats FSU, I think they both get 4 seeds. and it fills the spot, then it depends on what on what Purdue does.

For us to get a 4 seed, we need Purdue to lose, ND to lose and then us beat SMU. And it has to be SMU who we beat not anyone else. I also feel that SMU's ceiling is a 5 seed. Even if they beat us. Even worse if they win the AAC and don't have to beat us.

Just my thoughts and predictions.

I'd rather be a top 5 seed that doesn't play on the west coast than to be the worst 4 seed on the west coast.

I'm not really debating what seed we will end up with...I was debating the subjectiveness of top 50 wins as a major component of the selection. We will probably get a 5 and I'm fine with that. What we deserve is another story.

As you said we are 19th in Kenpom and that says 5 seed but if we win out and play well...we could move in top 16 where SMU is. Speaking of which SMU has lost 1 time since November I think (and they damn near won that game). They are playing top 10 basketball whether or not their entire resume reflects that.

If they win our tourney someone needs to get smacked around if they aren't a 4 seed because they are playing better than that for 3 months now. The "recency effect" should be in full play with teams like SMU. Discounting their losses in November too highly seems too easy. Do some homework committee!! Come on man!
 
Guys....

IM NOT THE ONE VALUEING top 50 wins.

The committee released its top 16 seeds. That showed us what they valued and what they don't.
- gonzaga was the 4th 1 seed and was undefeated at the time. Proved they don't care you didn't lose and care about who you beat.

-UC was left off the list even though we were 11th in the country and like 14th in RPI. They picked teams ranked behind us because they had top 50 wins.

-Wisconsin and Purdue were also left off because the same things.

I am in no way making these predictions because of my own measure. I'm basing it on the precedent that the committee already set.

I want a 4 seed but not the last 4 seed on the west coast.

In my eyes committee is seeding based off of:
1. Top 50 wins
2. RPI
3. Advanced metrics
4. Bad losses


Maybe they change the entire thing this Sunday but based on the precedent they Set earlier this year, I'm sticking with top 50 wins over everything else.
 
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