Computer Numbers/Bracketology Thread

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For some reason I feel like Wednesday's game is a must win. If we split these last two games I will be extremely nervous come selection day. After last years SMU snub, I get a feeling only 2 ACC teams make it in.
 
UCalum08 said:
For some reason I feel like Wednesday's game is a must win. If we split these last two games I will be extremely nervous come selection day. After last years SMU snub, I get a feeling only 2 ACC teams make it in.
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My feeling:
Lose last 2, must win tourney
Split last 2, better win 2 tourney games (for me to feel comfortable)
Sweep last 2, tourney only matters for seeding
 
UCalum08 said:
For some reason I feel like Wednesday's game is a must win. If we split these last two games I will be extremely nervous come selection day. After last years SMU snub, I get a feeling only 2 ACC teams make it in.
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I'm with you. Losing one of the last 2 and not winning the conference tourney means we'd be an 11 loss AAC team with losses to Tulane at home, ECU and Nebraska. Maybe if we made the finals by beating SMU again we'd get in.
 
jacobkdoyle said:
I'm with you. Losing one of the last 2 and not winning the conference tourney means we'd be an 11 loss AAC team with losses to Tulane at home, ECU and Nebraska. Maybe if we made the finals by beating SMU again we'd get in.
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Wed is the big one - mostly because it would bump another bubble team (Tulsa) out.

Nichols for Memphis may be out for the year, so that game is looking better and better as it is.

If we beat Tulsa, I would be shocked if we don't make it.
 
Doogle said:
Here's a decent site for this kind of thing. Note they project UC to split the final 2 regular season games:

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/
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I'm weary of that site...I've heard they're generally very incorrect and have strange formulas. I prefer bracketmatrix.com just to see where all the bracketologists have us.

Some numbers I've found for UC (up to the minute):
RPI: 49
SOS: 72 (23 OOC)
KenPom: 42

I think those numbers right there deserve a bid. But a lot can change in the next two weeks.
 
kskenyon4 said:
Wed is the big one - mostly because it would bump another bubble team (Tulsa) out.

Nichols for Memphis may be out for the year, so that game is looking better and better as it is.

If we beat Tulsa, I would be shocked if we don't make it.
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Yeah and beating Tulsa puts us at 5 top 50 RPI wins. NC State is at #52. It'd be nice if they could finish inside the Top 50 (instead of getting killed by Boston College).
 
A lot of familiar names on that 6 line we could be matched up with. I've seen West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, and Providence all there in various bracket projections.
 
A big game tonight to watch out for is Baylor/Texas. If Texas loses, that's 9 L's in a row against the top 50, and would drop them to 6-11 in the Big12. Would seem impossible for them to get in over us if they lose tonight.
 
It's kind of crazy that Tulsa is #30 RPI, 1st place 14-2 in conference, and the projected brackets put them on a level with Davidson who has 4 losses in the A-10. Our conference really doesn't get much respect. UConn is pretty much ruled out as an at-large with 11 losses (it'd be 12 at least if they're an at-large). But NC State is ahead of us even with 12 losses (8-8 in conference), a worse RPI than us, and we rolled them on their own court. The bottom feeders are killing our conference.
 
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I still don't understand how you can have Xavier as an 8 seed and UC as an 11 seed. You can't tell me that Xavier's resume is that much better than our own.
 
jacobkdoyle said:
It's kind of crazy that Tulsa is #30 RPI, 1st place 14-2 in conference, and the projected brackets put them on a level with Davidson who has 4 losses in the A-10. Our conference really doesn't get much respect. UConn is pretty much ruled out as an at-large with 11 losses (it'd be 12 at least if they're an at-large). But NC State is ahead of us even with 12 losses (8-8 in conference), a worse RPI than us, and we rolled them on their own court. The bottom feeders are killing our conference.
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You don't need to look any further than last year when SMU was ranked in top 25 and got snubbed.
 
Patrick Bateman said:
You don't need to look any further than last year when SMU was ranked in top 25 and got snubbed.
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I am worried about how seriously the committee takes the AAC they better take into account one of our teams won the national championship
 
Obviously we're aware of whom UC has beaten in the non-conference and the 2 wins over SMU loom large. But I'm not getting the warm fuzzies thinking about how someone might judge them from the outside looking in. The losses to ECU and especially Tulane at home pop off of that resume LIKE THIS. If you're working backwards through the UC schedule and you see those losses before some of their earlier wins? I felt way better about the '05-'06 team that got shafted from a resume perspective.

Good news is there's a Top-30 RPI win waiting on the road Wednesday night, and it's never bad to notch a win over Memphis regardless of their record, given their general perception. The fellas have control of their fate.
 

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