Xavier

[justinhub2003]

and as i stated before, it wasn't just Vogt.


Jarron Cumberland vs Xavier

On the floor (55 possessions)
0.86 pts per poss. scored
1.15 ppp allowed

Off the floor (20 possessions)
0.94 ppp scored
0.55 ppp allowed



If you were on the court when Marshall was going off, your stats are gonna be awful.

But Jarron at least has a reason. He has a hip pointer, which can linger all season and can be really painful.


Vogt is who he is defensively.

His all season long numbers grade him as one of the worst defenders in the country. His offensive numbers are offset by bad defense.


its Brannen's job to hide him now. Because You can bet Tenn, Iowa, Houston, Memphis, Temple, WSU and everyone else is going to see that POOR next to his name in synergy and they are going to try and exploit him.

Next move is John Brannen's

 

[justinhub2003]

Can you give the same numbers for Diarra this season? Or is his sample size too small? I'm guessing he's either very good or excellent on defense and poor on offense. Also do you have Diarra's +/- for Xavier (I'm guessing he was +6, but I don't have the stat).

Vogt has played better than I expected and fouled less than I expected. I don't hate him. But he is no more a complete player than Nsoseme was last year, or Diarra is this year.

I'd love to have a complete center (Brooks) who can perform at a high level on both ends of the court. But what we have this year is center who is excellent on offense and bad on defense and another who is excellent at defense, but bad at offense.

They should be used situationally depending on matchups (or we should go small). If Vogt isn't getting beat on defense let him play. But you can't keep a center on the court who is as big of a liability on defense as Vogt is - when the other team is able to take advantage of the mismatch - and expect to beat good teams.

Diarra is Below average on offense ( .737 ppp)

and Excellent on Defense (Nysier brooks like numbers) at .58 ppp Which is better than 88% of the country.



So whats interesting about Diarra is that his mistakes stick out like a sore thumb and even with those visible defensive mistakes, he still grades out as probably the best defender on the team

 

[cincrulz11]

Yea


They just need to scheme around his defensive issues. I had a perfect vantage point at the game, where X would purposely get Vogt up at the top of the key and then we'd just get beat off the dribble for the most uncontested layups I've ever seen in my life (Mick and Huggins both had good rim protectors)


Thats where the Defense is so bad.

If you have a great mobile shot blocker, it can hide your wings getting beat off the bounce

Mick always wanted his gaurds funneling their man into the shot blockers in the paint.


But when you have guys who can't guard anyone on the perimeter, coupled with a slow footed big, its receipe for defensive disaster

yeah its not good. although all that being said we held them under 1 ppp for the game. we just have no offense ourselves with jarron struggling. (berg has the game at 75 possessions, barttorvik at 72, but either way thats great D and bad O.)

 

[skyblade]

Yea


They just need to scheme around his defensive issues. I had a perfect vantage point at the game, where X would purposely get Vogt up at the top of the key and then we'd just get beat off the dribble for the most uncontested layups I've ever seen in my life (Mick and Huggins both had good rim protectors)


Thats where the Defense is so bad.

If you have a great mobile shot blocker, it can hide your wings getting beat off the bounce

Mick always wanted his gaurds funneling their man into the shot blockers in the paint.


But when you have guys who can't guard anyone on the perimeter, coupled with a slow footed big, its receipe for defensive disaster

This is what I see almost every game, though it stood out more against Xavier. If you can pull Vogt away from the basket, he becomes worthless on defense.

There are other issues as well. Jarron is worse on defense than he has been in the past (either injury or different scheme), Jaevin isn't good at preventing dribble penetration. Scott isn't either. But in the past (or if Diarra is in the game), if the guard makes a mistake and his guy gets by him, we had a mobile center to provide help and limit the damage.

Now if you pull Vogt away from the basket - which hasn't been hard for most teams - there are open layups to be had.

 

[cincrulz11]

But Jarron at least has a reason. He has a hip pointer, which can linger all season and can be really painful.

he did have a reason. but that reason is why we aren't nearly the team we could be.



when jarron is putting up numbers like that, and its been a common theme this year, we are in trouble.



nobody would have given us a chance this year if we'd been told jarron would be one of our worst players. we have to hope for it to get better real quick.

 

[justinhub2003]

yeah its not good. although all that being said we held them under 1 ppp for the game. we just have no offense ourselves with jarron struggling. (berg has the game at 75 possessions, barttorvik at 72, but either way thats great D and bad O.)

Sure.

its just.. they aren't a good offense. we will see better offenses in the AAC.

in raw offensive efficiency Xavier ranks 186th

Sadly our offense is even worst at 207 and our defense is 103



This is why im not optomistic about the season. We've yet to look good in wins or losses and the numbers reflect that. I also think this team is emotionless.


I think brannen needs to get a little more fire in him, because while mick was an absolute nut, I'd like to see our coach showing some passion when were down 12 and playing like shit.

Get a technical . Just do something to make your team look alive

 

[cincrulz11]

I also think this team is emotionless.

the team does not have a leader. ive often thought about that. jarron isn't vocal and im not sure what scott is but it sure isn't a leader.



ive always been of the belief that teams need player leaders. theres only so much a coach can do, but when you have other players holding you accountable for mistakes it seems to go better. instead we got scott making mistakes and blaming others. jarron doesn't talk to anybody. keith seems super quiet. nobody else has been around.

 

[skyblade]

Diarra is Below average on offense ( .737 ppp)

and Excellent on Defense (Nysier brooks like numbers) at .58 ppp Which is better than 88% of the country.



So whats interesting about Diarra is that his mistakes stick out like a sore thumb and even with those visible defensive mistakes, he still grades out as probably the best defender on the team

I'm glad the more advanced stats back up what I've been saying. Thank you Justin for paying for them and providing them here.

Diarra seems like one of those guys who needs to come in and make a couple boneheaded plays before he gets into the flow of the game. Those plays tend to stand out to fans and because his impact is on defense and not on offense, his contributions don't get much notice.

If we could put Vogt's mind in Diarra's body, we'd likely have a future NBA draft pick. Unfortunately we can't. But we can trust that Diarra will improve on offense as he gains experience. Vogt is who he is on defense, we either need to change the scheme to hide his weaknesses, or sit him against teams that take advantage of his defensive weakness.

It's very similar to Kyle Washington. Cronin was never willing to change the scheme to hide him. But he did at least sit him when teams exposed the mismatch. So far Brannen has been unwilling to change the scheme or sit Vogt when teams take advantage of the mismatch, that needs to change very soon or our next 4 games could have bad results.

 

[skyblade]

the team does not have a leader. ive often thought about that. jarron isn't vocal and im not sure what scott is but it sure isn't a leader.



ive always been of the belief that teams need player leaders. theres only so much a coach can do, but when you have other players holding you accountable for mistakes it seems to go better. instead we got scott making mistakes and blaming others. jarron doesn't talk to anybody. keith seems super quiet. nobody else has been around.

Brannen was trying to make McNeal the leader. Then McNeal started playing and stunk it up on the court.

Jarron has never really been a leader, though Cronin tried to force him into the role. Scott seems to be the best leader we have, but he also seems to be having trouble adjusting to the new scheme. Keith as you said also seems pretty quiet and also confused at times. Maw seems like he may take over as the leader next year, but as a freshman that's probably too much to ask this year.

 

[cincyalum2014]

Can you give the same numbers for Diarra this season? Or is his sample size too small? I'm guessing he's either very good or excellent on defense and poor on offense. Also do you have Diarra's +/- for Xavier (I'm guessing he was +6, but I don't have the stat).

Vogt has played better than I expected and fouled less than I expected. I don't hate him. But he is no more a complete player than Nsoseme was last year, or Diarra is this year.

I'd love to have a complete center (Brooks) who can perform at a high level on both ends of the court. But what we have this year is center who is excellent on offense and bad on defense and another who is excellent at defense, but bad at offense.

They should be used situationally depending on matchups (or we should go small). If Vogt isn't getting beat on defense let him play. But you can't keep a center on the court who is as big of a liability on defense as Vogt is - when the other team is able to take advantage of the mismatch - and expect to beat good teams.

You literally just named two of the worst players for UC in the last 20 years There is a reason Nsoseme was not recruited and he is now at Georgia State.

 

[cincrulz11]

Brannen was trying to make McNeal the leader. Then McNeal started playing and stunk it up on the court.

Jarron has never really been a leader, though Cronin tried to force him into the role. Scott seems to be the best leader we have, but he also seems to be having trouble adjusting to the new scheme. Keith as you said also seems pretty quiet and also confused at times. Maw seems like he may take over as the leader next year, but as a freshman that's probably too much to ask this year.

yeah i think brannen sensed we needed one and hoped mcneal would be that guy. unfortunately mcneal's play put him on the bench.

 

[skyblade]

You literally just named two of the worst players for UC in the last 20 years There is a reason Nsoseme was not recruited and he is now at Georgia State.

There's a reason why Vogt was at NKU. Vogt is as big of a liability on defense as Diarra is on offense (I'll grant you that Nsoseme was an even bigger liability).

Fans love Vogt because his strength is offense. But a center who only gives a positive contribution on one on end of the court is not a complete player whether it be Vogt, Sorolla, Nsoseme or Diarra and honestly isn't a player you want starting.

But Diarra can become a complete player in the current system by simply gaining experience. I can't see any way for Vogt to become a complete player, barring (possibly) a major adjustment of Brannen's defensive scheme to hide Vogt's weaknesses.

 

[TheLivingLegend]

There's a reason why Vogt was at NKU. Vogt is as big of a liability on defense as Diarra is on offense (I'll grant you that Nsoseme was an even bigger liability).

Fans love Vogt because he plays offense. But a center who only gives a positive contribution on one on end of the court is not a complete player whether it be Vogt, Sorolla, Nsoseme or Diarra and honestly isn't a player you want starting.

But Diarra can become a complete player in the current system by simply gaining experience. I can't see any way for Vogt to become a complete player, barring (possibly) a major adjustment of Brannen's defensive scheme to hide Vogt's weaknesses.

Your very wrong. Very very wrong.

 

[skyblade]

Vogt is +0.12
Brooks is +0.26

Diarra is +0.157

 

[justinhub2003]

You literally just named two of the worst players for UC in the last 20 years There is a reason Nsoseme was not recruited and he is now at Georgia State.

And yet If nsesome was on this team, he’d be one of our better rebounders and defenders.

Elie would have a role on this team. Because he is the polar opposite of Vogt. I watched elie guard out to the 3 point line last year with our issue.

Mick recruited guys like him bc it Gave him a baseline of defense and rebounding if ever the starter was under performing.

 

[justinhub2003]

Elie rebounded at an elite level and only need a few minutes to do it.

Against OSU he played 14 min and 6 boards
Unlv 8 boards in 18 min
Xavier 7 boards in 16 min
Nku 8 boards In 22 min


Mick shortened the bench at the end of the year but elie had a D1 skill that worked at this level.

 

[cincrulz11]

Elie rebounded at an elite level and only need a few minutes to do it.

Against OSU he played 14 min and 6 boards
Unlv 8 boards in 18 min
Xavier 7 boards in 16 min
Nku 8 boards In 22 min


Mick shortened the bench at the end of the year but elie had a D1 skill that worked at this level.

yes he was a great rebounder but we're just never going to recruit players like that with brannen here.


its really a waste to talk about them.

 

[skyblade]

And yet If nsesome was on this team, he’d be one of our better rebounders and defenders.

Elie would have a role on this team. Because he is the polar opposite of Vogt. I watched elie guard out to the 3 point line last year with our issue.

Mick recruited guys like him bc it Gave him a baseline of defense and rebounding if ever the starter was under performing.

Yup, he'd be right up there with Diarra as a top defender and rebounder.

As I've said many times, because there are fewer of them, getting a big man who can do everything as a freshman is very difficult. Mick's solution was to get athletes who could defend and teach them to play offense.

Brannen's solution so far is to get immobile guys who can score. But it's almost impossible to teach those guys to play defense, so I'm not sure what the long term plan is. I'm all for centers who can score, but not at the cost of giving up more points on defense than they produce on offense.

Think of how bad Diarra is on offense and how good Vogt is on offense. Vogt has to be terrible on D and Diarra excellent for Diarra to have a higher overall ppp than Vogt.

But as per Justin's numbers, that is exactly what's happening in reality. If you subtract ppp allowed on defense (Vogt: 1.04, Diarra: 0.58), from ppp produced on offense (Vogt: 1.16, Diarra: 0.737). Diarra produces more ppp overall (0.157) than Vogt (0.12).

 

[skyblade]

Elie rebounded at an elite level and only need a few minutes to do it.

Against OSU he played 14 min and 6 boards
Unlv 8 boards in 18 min
Xavier 7 boards in 16 min
Nku 8 boards In 22 min


Mick shortened the bench at the end of the year but elie had a D1 skill that worked at this level.

Ellie also injured his leg midyear which reduced his mobility. That's a main reason Diarra started taking his minutes.

 

[cincrulz11]

But as per Justin's numbers, that is exactly what's happening in reality. If you subtract ppp allowed on defense (Vogt: 1.04, Diarra: 0.58), from ppp produced on offense (Vogt: 1.16, Diarra: 0.737). Diarra produces more ppp overall (0.157) than Vogt (0.12).

pretty sure justins numbers are when the man they are guarding shoots. you can't do what you just did there based on stats that are only used when his man shoots.



if the person they guard shoots 100% of the time on every possession, then maybe you could do that, but thats not how it works.



also on offense its on a possession that ends in their hands i believe? so when vogt gets doubled, passes out and we rotate the ball for a wide open 3, vogt gets nothing for that.