Xavier

[waterhead]

Brannen was trying to make McNeal the leader. Then McNeal started playing and stunk it up on the court.

Jarron has never really been a leader, though Cronin tried to force him into the role. Scott seems to be the best leader we have, but he also seems to be having trouble adjusting to the new scheme. Keith as you said also seems pretty quiet and also confused at times. Maw seems like he may take over as the leader next year, but as a freshman that's probably too much to ask this year.

Early on it was looking like it would be McNeal and Scott. Of course it would be nice if our vocal leaders are also playing decent. Our chemistry is pretty horrible right now. Brannen is still trying to figure out who he can play and when. McNeal has been a disaster lately but there is no way he is that bad so Brannen has to try to play him to get him out of the funk. Even if he plays MAW 30 minutes he will need some productive minutes out of Chris at some point.

I hope we can find some minutes for Diara but it's real hard to do that in games where we are either going to OT or losing. We blew our best chances to do that. It's been a perfect storm scenario to not be able to get our bench some much needed stress free minutes.

All in all it's a tough scenario but the extended bench has to come in and just play D and not turn it over and shoot when wide open. We can't afford to let them learn on the fly right now

 

[skyblade]

pretty sure justins numbers are when the man they are guarding shoots. you can't do what you just did there based on stats that are only used when his man shoots.



if the person they guard shoots 100% of the time on every possession, then maybe you could do that, but thats not how it works.



also on offense its on a possession that ends in their hands i believe? so when vogt gets doubled, passes out and we rotate the ball for a wide open 3, vogt gets nothing for that.

I'm not really sure of your point. It's impossible to capture everything in stats, but Synergy is good enough that many NBA and NCAA teams use it.

I suppose comparing offensive and defensive ppp would be inaccurate if there was a large difference in number of attempts (say guy Vogt guards only shoots 5 times in the game and Vogt shoots 20 times or vice versa for Diarra). But considering a guy with Vogt's numbers is going to be a focus of the opposing team (defending him when on D and exploiting him when on O), I doubt that Vogt attempts more shots than are attempted against him.

Sure Vogt probably contributes more than is seen in offense ppp. He draws double teams and defensive focus. By the same token, he hurts more than is seen in defensive ppp. His inability to provide help defense allows guys he isn't guarding layups and we have to double to help him in the post. I don't think Diarra's superior rebounding is accounted for either.

Overall, the numbers seem accurate to what I see in games. Vogt is excellent on offense and very bad on defense. Diarra is bad on offense and excellent on defense. Neither is a complete player, but Diarra might become one.

 

[sedziobs]

The reason why is that Vogt is "excellent" on offensve but "Poor" on defense

Brooks was "Very Good" on offense and "Excellent" on defense

When Vogt is guard his man, they score a whopping 1.043 points per possession against him, which is worst that 87% of the nation

When Brooks guards him man, they score a paltry 0.72 ppp, which was better than 86% of the nation

When Vogt has the ball on offense he scores at an amazing 1.16 ppp, better than 95% of D1

When Brooks has the ball on offense he scores 0.98 which is better than 77% of D1

Vogt is +0.12
Brooks is +0.26

Where does this data come from? Do they post their methodology?

 

[cincrulz11]

I'm not really sure of your point. It's impossible to capture everything in stats, but Synergy is good enough that many NBA and NCAA teams use it.

I suppose comparing offensive and defensive ppp would be inaccurate if there was a large difference in number of attempts (say guy Vogt guards only shoots 5 times in the game and Vogt shoots 20 times or vice versa for Diarra). But considering a guy with Vogt's numbers is going to be a focus of the opposing team (defending him when on D and exploiting him when on O), I doubt that Vogt attempts more shots than are attempted against him.

Sure Vogt probably contributes more than is seen in offense ppp. He draws double teams and defensive focus. By the same token, he hurts more than is seen in defensive ppp. His inability to provide help defense allows guys he isn't guarding layups and we have to double to help him in the post. I don't think Diarra's superior rebounding is accounted for either.

Overall, the numbers seem accurate to what I see in games. Vogt is excellent on offense and very bad on defense. Diarra is bad on offense and excellent on defense. Neither is a complete player, but Diarra might become one.

lets not act like Vogt's guy is lighting us up every game. That just simply is not happening. We've been getting lit up by opposing teams best players and they've almost all been guards/wings. Only vs OSU was the other teams best player a C and we did well vs him.



If we could get a break down of how many shots, how many points against for each game that would be fantastic.


There's a huge difference if Vogt is giving up 1.043 ppp on 5 shot attempts against a game vs 15.



I bet Vogt gave up a very high ppp vs Vermont bc his guy hit multiple 3's. How does that factor into the overall numbers?

 

[sedziobs]

There's a huge difference if Vogt is giving up 1.043 ppp on 5 shot attempts against a game vs 15.

I bet Vogt gave up a very high ppp vs Vermont bc his guy hit multiple 3's. How does that factor into the overall numbers?

I think the main thing skewing the numbers is that we don't switch on defense. If Vogt's man is shooting, it's almost always at the rim. And if the other team is shooting at the rim, it's almost always Vogt's man. The rim is the most efficient place to score.

But I haven't seen exactly how these numbers are calculated. It's all a black box at this point. NBA teams would know how to interpret the data. We don't.

 

[cincyguy13]

lets not act like Vogt's guy is lighting us up every game. That just simply is not happening. We've been getting lit up by opposing teams best players and they've almost all been guards/wings. Only vs OSU was the other teams best player a C and we did well vs him.



If we could get a break down of how many shots, how many points against for each game that would be fantastic.


There's a huge difference if Vogt is giving up 1.043 ppp on 5 shot attempts against a game vs 15.



I bet Vogt gave up a very high ppp vs Vermont bc his guy hit multiple 3's. How does that factor into the overall numbers?

This. Vogts defense has been great if we are talking 1-1 guarding. He’s shut down everyone we have played. Obviously he can’t come out and guard 3s but we aren’t asking him to. I think that’s where the stats can lie. This is where actually watching the game can help.

 

[skyblade]

lets not act like Vogt's guy is lighting us up every game. That just simply is not happening. We've been getting lit up by opposing teams best players and they've almost all been guards/wings. Only vs OSU was the other teams best player a C and we did well vs him.



If we could get a break down of how many shots, how many points against for each game that would be fantastic.


There's a huge difference if Vogt is giving up 1.043 ppp on 5 shot attempts against a game vs 15.



I bet Vogt gave up a very high ppp vs Vermont bc his guy hit multiple 3's. How does that factor into the overall numbers?

I agree that number of shots per game would be an important factor. But Vogt has been getting lit up in a lot of our games. Freemantle and Jones both had very good games with Vogt as their main defender. Vogt has also given up a lot of threes, including at least a couple against Xavier where he was defending the guy after a screen and got shot over before our guard could recover. BGSU shooting mid-range shots over Vogt was their main strategy in their comeback win over us.

I'd be willing to bet that attempts by Vogt's man are equal to or greater than shots attempted by Vogt.

 

[justinhub2003]

Where does this data come from? Do they post their methodology?

Its Synergy. A paid service that literally every coach and scout and anaylyst inthe country uses.

When UC scouts Colgate this week, they will use synergy.

 

[cincrulz11]

This. Vogts defense has been great if we are talking 1-1 guarding. He’s shut down everyone we have played. Obviously he can’t come out and guard 3s but we aren’t asking him to. I think that’s where the stats can lie. This is where actually watching the game can help.

there are weaknesses there, i wouldn't call his defense great. vermont spread us out and vogt couldn't rotate out to his guy quick enough to defend 3's. Freemantle got some open 12 footers because vogt couldn't slide quick enough after trying to help the ball penetration.



jones hit some over him in the 2nd half but vogt forced a lot of missed shots near the rim in the 1st. it's gonna be a mixed bag from him.

 

[justinhub2003]

Diarra is +0.157

Don't validate yourself tooo much on these numbers because Diarra's sample size is much much smaller


we know Vogt is a very poor defender

But we can't say yet that diarra is a great one just because there isn't a lot of data yet for him

 

[cincrulz11]

Its Synergy. A paid service that literally every coach and scout and anaylyst inthe country uses.

When UC scouts Colgate this week, they will use synergy.

yes but is there any breakdown in how the stats are accumulated. we don't doubt their accuracy for people that understand what they mean. we're asking for details on how they collect so maybe we can have an understanding of exactly what they mean and what they are showing.

 

[sedziobs]

Its Synergy. A paid service that literally every coach and scout and anaylyst inthe country uses.

When UC scouts Colgate this week, they will use synergy.

Do you have access to their methodology? Without that, we don't really know what these numbers are telling us.

 

[justinhub2003]

This. Vogts defense has been great if we are talking 1-1 guarding. He’s shut down everyone we have played. Obviously he can’t come out and guard 3s but we aren’t asking him to. I think that’s where the stats can lie. This is where actually watching the game can help.

Go back and watch the OSU game.


We junked the game up.

we doubled the post on every touch it felt like. Sure Vogt did a good job, but it was the double that frustrated Wesson not Vogt Alone.


And I don't mind using that style again. Houston doubles every single paint touch, or at least they did last season.

 

[cincrulz11]

Go back and watch the OSU game.


We junked the game up.

we doubled the post on every touch it felt like. Sure Vogt did a good job, but it was the double that frustrated Wesson not Vogt Alone.


And I don't mind using that style again. Houston doubles every single paint touch, or at least they did last season.

oh i would never try to imply that vogt could stop wesson alone. only that he did a good job of using his size to help slow him down and when we doubled we were really able to get the ball out of wessons hands.


we're really the only team that's been successful in slowing him down.

 

[skyblade]

This. Vogts defense has been great if we are talking 1-1 guarding. He’s shut down everyone we have played. Obviously he can’t come out and guard 3s but we aren’t asking him to. I think that’s where the stats can lie. This is where actually watching the game can help.

Vogt's defense has been good 1-on-1 in the paint. But even there, we've had to double to provide him help against the two best teams we've faced (Wesson of OSU and Jones of Xavier).

1-on-1 outside the paint is a huge mismatch for Vogt and he has given up a lot of 3's and mid-range jumpers. The stats aren't lying, in Brannen's system (and most defensive systems), the center does more than stand in the paint and guard the paint (the biggest exception I can think of is UCF's Tacko Fall defense).

Vogt's inability to provide help or defend outside the paint should count against him, because he is being asked to do so (generally only for a short time until our guard can recover, but that's enough time for Vogt to get shot over).

Maybe Brannen can run a zone to hide Vogt's weaknesses. But until/unless he does that and it works, Vogt's perimeter defense counts against him.

 

[justinhub2003]

Do you have access to their methodology? Without that, we don't really know what these numbers are telling us.

He is is what I can tell you

Its an intense intense breakdown of every single play on the court. AND if there is 49 possessions of Vogt playing defense, you can click it and it will then play those clips back to back.

I can isolate every single type of defensive possession he has had.


The method is... when you are guarding your guy and he has the ball, what was his points per possession


Its better and more reliable than any thing you'll find on the internet for free. Its not even close.

Ill post a screenshot of it later

 

[sedziobs]

Its an intense intense breakdown of every single play on the court. AND if there is 49 possessions of Vogt playing defense, you can click it and it will then play those clips back to back.

I can isolate every single type of defensive possession he has had.

The method is... when you are guarding your guy and he has the ball, what was his points per possession

Its better and more reliable than any thing you'll find on the internet for free. Its not even close.

So if it's video based, there is either AI or human interpretation of that video making decisions. Maybe human for NBA games, but I'm guessing they have AI for NCAA. We need to know how that AI is coded and what kind of decisions it's making. "When you are guarding your guy and he has the ball" could mean a lot of different things. On a switch, are you still guarding "your" man? Who's man is who on a pick and roll, or a double team? Zone defense? Transition? Sure you can pull up videos of these situations, but how are they fed through the sausage grinder and turned into a single statistic?

 

[skyblade]

I think the main thing skewing the numbers is that we don't switch on defense. If Vogt's man is shooting, it's almost always at the rim. And if the other team is shooting at the rim, it's almost always Vogt's man. The rim is the most efficient place to score.

But I haven't seen exactly how these numbers are calculated. It's all a black box at this point. NBA teams would know how to interpret the data. We don't.

The thing is, when Vogt is at the rim and in position, he has done very well at preventing layups. The problem is that he generally gets pulled away from the bucket pretty easily (mostly because of the scheme: man defense so he has to guard his man) and once he's pulled away he can't move well enough to get back and can't defend outside the paint.

 

[justinhub2003]

So if it's video based, there is either AI or human interpretation of that video making decisions. Maybe human for NBA games, but I'm guessing they have AI for NCAA. We need to know how that AI is coded and what kind of decisions it's making. "When you are guarding your guy and he has the ball" could mean a lot of different things. On a switch, are you still guarding "your" man? Who's man is who on a pick and roll, or a double team? Zone defense? Transition? Sure you can pull up videos of these situations, but how are they fed through the sausage grinder and turned into a single statistic?

It breaks down Literallly EVERYTHING like to an insane amount of detail that i just stop scrolling.


I saved it to PDF

https://www.dropbox.com/s/mvqk1rypmy26s9x/Synergy Sports - Print Quantified Player Report.pdf?dl=0

 

[cincyguy13]

Vogt's defense has been good 1-on-1 in the paint. But even there, we've had to double to provide him help against the two best teams we've faced (Wesson of OSU and Jones of Xavier).

1-on-1 outside the paint is a huge mismatch for Vogt and he has given up a lot of 3's and mid-range jumpers. The stats aren't lying, in Brannen's system (and most defensive systems), the center does more than stand in the paint and guard the paint (the biggest exception I can think of is UCF's Tacko Fall defense).

Vogt's inability to provide help or defend outside the paint should count against him, because he is being asked to do so (generally only for a short time until our guard can recover, but that's enough time for Vogt to get shot over).

Maybe Brannen can run a zone to hide Vogt's weaknesses. But until/unless he does that and it works, Vogt's perimeter defense counts against him.

Once again, I think we are arguing two different things. All I want or expect Vogt to do, is play solid 1-1 defense, in the paint. For that, he’s been great. If you expect him to chase around shooters and weak side blocks, yes he will be terrible at that. He is what he is. I doubt brannen is expecting him to do these things.