Who is exceeding expectations the most?

[waterhead]

Out of our 6 heavy minute players who is your candidate for being the biggest surprise or exceeding what you expected?

We all thought Cumberland would be the go to guy but he has carried a very big load for us. 3% and FT% are way up. He's been clutch and does it all on the road or at home.

Williams has exploded onto the scene. His 3% has been a surprise. We can ISO him and he can make a play in a number of ways. He's so confident and doesn't back down from a challenge.

Jenifer has been improving year after year. His assist to turnover ratio is coming back to earth but he has been hitting 3's and making FT's at a high clip.

Brooks has frustrated me less and less as time goes on. He's been very efficient lately and is a decent low volume scoring option. He seems to be vocal out there as well keeping us together and focused when he's out there.

Scott is doing about what I was expecting from him but he's in a much bigger role and logging lots of minutes so he is very valuable in that regard.

Cane has bailed us out a couple of times but otherwise is below my expectations coming in. I hope he gets back into a groove.

 

[GarradJ21]

Out of our 6 heavy minute players who is your candidate for being the biggest surprise or exceeding what you expected?

We all thought Cumberland would be the go to guy but he has carried a very big load for us. 3% and FT% are way up. He's been clutch and does it all on the road or at home.

Williams has exploded onto the scene. His 3% has been a surprise. We can ISO him and he can make a play in a number of ways. He's so confident and doesn't back down from a challenge.

Jenifer has been improving year after year. His assist to turnover ratio is coming back to earth but he has been hitting 3's and making FT's at a high clip.

Brooks has frustrated me less and less as time goes on. He's been very efficient lately and is a decent low volume scoring option. He seems to be vocal out there as well keeping us together and focused when he's out there.

Scott is doing about what I was expecting from him but he's in a much bigger role and logging lots of minutes so he is very valuable in that regard.

Cane has bailed us out a couple of times but otherwise is below my expectations coming in. I hope he gets back into a groove.

Cumberland is doing exactly what we are all hoped and thought he would be doing but maybe even better than expected. Just because we expect someone to play like this doesn't mean they will. Hats off to him for coming through and giving us everything we need and more.

The two biggest surprises have to be Keith Williams and Justin Jenifer. It's unreal what they are doing this year especially Keith. Jenifer's shooting wasn't that bad last year but it's obviously been even better this year. He's having a great senior year. No one expected what Keith is doing this year to happen until his junior year.

I figured Tre and Brooks would be solid once they had plenty of minutes. Brooks is probably better than expected but still didn't want to count either of them out until they played meaningful minutes this year and they are doing fine.


12 more games left, lets keep it up and have Cane hit more open looks. We get his 3pt shooting to be at the very least in the mid 20s at this point that will help.


The debate we should have in one of these threads is Cumberland vs. Kilpatrick but maybe we can save that for next year

 

[mdchick]

I voted brooks, I knew k. Williams was going to be good eventually I didn’t know he was going to be this good this quick, but watching brooks this summer in Canada he looked awful, he has been very solid for us down low he’s slowing his game down offensively and he actually has some good post moves now. Also not as bad at ft’s as I was expecting

 

[MylesFoxMorrisey]

I voted Keith, just because I never thought he'd be so key in so many games thus far. However, while I hoped Jarron would be this good, I had big doubts he could actually do it, so in that sense hes exceeded expectations.

 

[cincycpaw]

I voted brooks, I knew k. Williams was going to be good eventually I didn’t know he was going to be this good this quick, but watching brooks this summer in Canada he looked awful, he has been very solid for us down low he’s slowing his game down offensively and he actually has some good post moves now. Also not as bad at ft’s as I was expecting

I voted Williams. Biggest jump.

Can’t vote for brooks. 6’11” and can’t dunk on people. Weak under the basket, but sweet sweeping hook.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

This is easily Williams to me. I thought it would be his junior year before we saw anything consistent out of him. I saw him coming off the bench and possibly be behind Moore and Fredricks even for PT depending on his defense. For him to be starting and scoring like he is is a godsend for this team. Cumberland and jenifer and Brooks are kind of doing what I thought they were capable of. Granted they are all maxing out what I may have hoped for them, but i cant say any of their production is a complete surprise. Scott has been OK for me. He's had his moments and is scoring better than I thought but he's inconsistent. Broome, I'm not even sure why he's on this list. I might have the least expectations of anyone on here for him and he still isnt even giving me that. I figured he'd probably start and be giving us 12-13 a game. I thought he'd be a better open shooter than he has been too.

 

[Cin City]

I figured Williams would have quite the jump. He's right around where I expected him to be...maybe a tad better. Brooks has been a nice surprise. I voted JJ. We always knew he could pass and facilitate, but he's averaging double figure scoring in conference play and shooting really well from 3. I don't know if any of you thought he'd be playing at the clip he is, but I did not. I figured him to be solid, but as of now he is playing stellar and a big reason we are 5-1 16-3. Hopefully he will continue this level. It is huge.

 

[waterhead]

I figured Williams would have quite the jump. He's right around where I expected him to be...maybe a tad better. Brooks has been a nice surprise. I voted JJ. We always knew he could pass and facilitate, but he's averaging double figure scoring in conference play and shooting really well from 3. I don't know if any of you thought he'd be playing at the clip he is, but I did not. I figured him to be solid, but as of now he is playing stellar and a big reason we are 5-1 16-3. Hopefully he will continue this level. It is huge.

I think we all saw some glimpses of Williams his freshman year. He could get to the rim and finish, he made a few step back J's, etc. He was not used heavily so I didn't know what to expect in extended minutes or even if he would be behind Moore or Fredericks. I was also hoping he could come close to doubling his 3 point 15% rate. I was thinking he would end in the high 20's and I guess that could still happen but so far he's exceeding even that. But his block rate is also way up. I did not expect the consistency he is putting up either...thought he would be more streaky with points.

I expected Jenifer to be a little bit better than last year. He has also exceeded expectations but not by as much IMO. He's just doing the things he was doing better...but he's done that pretty much each year.

 

[Mcginnjw]

I have to go with JJ....he is leading the conference in assist/TO ration which I knew was possible. However, his 3% has been shocking. I never thought I would see Jenifer lead the league in a significant scoring category. I don’t even want to think how bad this team would be without his confidence and command of the offense.

 

[kskenyon4]

Easily would of been Jenifer if it wasn't for Williams having an almost 180 from last year.

From last year, he has improved by 7.9ppg, 2 rbp, .7 steals, and improved field goal % by 12.

He can really take another leap next year even, with improved FT shooting and rebounding at a higher clip given his athleticism.

Jenifer is a close 2nd though - his point uptick was needed.

 

[waterhead]

After losing 3 of 4 of our top offensive threats and replacing them with mediocre scorers (if that) many thought Cumberland was going to find it very hard to be effective or get any breathing room. Well, even though we have seen some surprises on offense Cumberland is still getting “the business” every time he touches the ball yet he still finds a way to get points on the board or impact the game.

I did not think he was going to be able to handle all that pressure but he just keeps getting better as the game goes on and gets to crunch time. IMO he deserves to be in the playing above expectations coversation. It’s not easy to put a team on your back like that all the time. SK was an All American...it’s rare

 

[Cartel]

After losing 3 of 4 of our top offensive threats and replacing them with mediocre scorers (if that) many thought Cumberland was going to find it very hard to be effective or get any breathing room. Well, even though we have seen some surprises on offense Cumberland is still getting “the business” every time he touches the ball yet he still finds a way to get points on the board or impact the game.



I did not think he was going to be able to handle all that pressure but he just keeps getting better as the game goes on and gets to crunch time. IMO he deserves to be in the playing above expectations coversation. It’s not easy to put a team on your back like that all the time. SK was an All American...it’s rare

+1000

This conversation should begin and end with Cumberland. There is no way we only have 3 losses if he doesn’t make the huge jump he has. I think it is easy to overlook if you are like me and just expected it.

 

[waterhead]

+1000

This conversation should begin and end with Cumberland. There is no way we only have 3 losses if he doesn’t make the huge jump he has. I think it is easy to overlook if you are like me and just expected it.

He's averaging over 22 points in conference and 4 assists. That's around 30 points per game he is accounting for. Not to mention 5 rebounds and 1 steal per game. At over 9 FT attempts per game (12 in the last 5) he is helping to get us in the bonus and creating some foul trouble for the other team as well.

That's a lot he's doing. He's also taking pressure off the other guys allowing them to be more efficient with their looks. I mean the rest of the guys don't have to take on too many bad shots.

 

[waterhead]

Jenifer continues to shoot lights out from deep. However, in his last 6 conference games he has only 7 assists (3 games with zero) vs 7 turnovers. Cane has had 20 assists vs 8 turnovers.

Is Cane buying in? He has been outJenifering Jenifer lately in that department. Now if Broome can just kick in that scoring mentality and continue distributing the ball somewhat safely...look out! Let Justin shoot and let Cane drive the ball.

Prior to Jenifer's last 6 games he had 61 assists and 6 turnovers for 10:1 ratio. His last 6 games have been 1:1. WTF?

 

[waterhead]

Just playing around on the T-Rank site. They have 12 years (including this one) in the memory banks. I wanted to see how guys like Brooks and Jenifer were doing as it relates to this list. I was a little shocked at what I found for Brooks.

Block % is #3 (JJ, and Mooj ahead only 1 season)
TS % is #3 (Jenifer and Clark ahead only 1 season)
D rebound % # 6 (Clark, Wash, Rubles, Ellis, Jackson only one season each)
O rebound % #8 (Jackson, Clark x 2, Gates, Thomas, Ellis x 2)

In terms of what we expect him to do...he is performing better than I thought I would find. Imagine if he had just made a few more of his dunks? It's only his Jr year so I would expect next year he could move up the ladder in a few of these categories.


Jenifer is #1 in ORTG, TO rate (I think), TS %, and 3 % (over 25 makes). Of course TS % and ORTG are tied in pretty heavily to the 3%. He is #11 in assist rate (Wright x 3, Caupain x 2, Vaughn x 2, Broome x 2, and Warren)

 

[waterhead]

Just playing around on the T-Rank site. They have 12 years (including this one) in the memory banks. I wanted to see how guys like Brooks and Jenifer were doing as it relates to this list. I was a little shocked at what I found for Brooks.

Block % is #3 (JJ, and Mooj ahead only 1 season)
TS % is #3 (Jenifer and Clark ahead only 1 season)
D rebound % # 6 (Clark, Wash, Rubles, Ellis, Jackson only one season each)
O rebound % #8 (Jackson, Clark x 2, Gates, Thomas, Ellis x 2)

In terms of what we expect him to do...he is performing better than I thought I would find. Imagine if he had just made a few more of his dunks? It's only his Jr year so I would expect next year he could move up the ladder in a few of these categories.


Jenifer is #1 in ORTG, TO rate (I think), TS %, and 3 % (over 25 makes). Of course TS % and ORTG are tied in pretty heavily to the 3%. He is #11 in assist rate (Wright x 3, Caupain x 2, Vaughn x 2, Broome x 2, and Warren)

By comparison Scott is #24 in O rebound %, 11 D rebound %, 22 TS %, and 25 in block %.

 

[waterhead]

Keith Williams has the highest block rate of any wing and his steal rate is better than any other frosh or soph other than Wright's soph season. His bock rate is currently ahead of Clark's Jr year for perspective.

 

[waterhead]

One fun stat the site uses is a "value over replacement player" algorithm.

SK is the highest at 5.5 (Sr year)
Clark is second at 4.6 (Sr year)

Tied for 3rd at 4.5 is Cumberland, Vaughn, and Evans. Cumberland's value has been going up all year so he could end up 2nd on this list by years end.

SK was 6th and 7th at 4.3 and then Clark and Jenifer tied at 4.0.

Also for reference Ja Morant and Zion Williamson tied at 6.4 this year on that stat. Cumberland may not be leading a lot of individual stats but his overall value has been one of the top 2 or 3 in the Cronin era...and he's only a Jr.

 

[cincrulz11]

Jenifer is #1 in ORTG, TO rate (I think), TS %, and 3 % (over 25 makes). Of course TS % and ORTG are tied in pretty heavily to the 3%. He is #11 in assist rate (Wright x 3, Caupain x 2, Vaughn x 2, Broome x 2, and Warren)

can't really compare his ORTG to any of the others because his usage rate is so low. imagine what the other guys would look like if they were never forced to take a shot they didn't want to and only had to take wide open ones.

 

[waterhead]

can't really compare his ORTG to any of the others because his usage rate is so low. imagine what the other guys would look like if they were never forced to take a shot they didn't want to and only had to take wide open ones.

I would not argue with his ORTG being artificially high...but he's knocking down 3's at a very high clip (open or not). And in the nation there is only 1 player ahead of him in ORTG that has a higher usage (per T-rank). Either way he's making the most of his opportunities.