Who is exceeding expectations the most?

[david aka the TYZ]

can't really compare his ORTG to any of the others because his usage rate is so low. imagine what the other guys would look like if they were never forced to take a shot they didn't want to and only had to take wide open ones.

How many shots do you think players take that they don't want to? We take a few a game late in the shot clock, but other than that everybody is taking shots they want to. And I've seen jenifer take his fair share of shots late in the shot clock, honestly probably second to only Cumberland. Not really sure what you're arguing here.

 

[cincrulz11]

How many shots do you think players take that they don't want to? We take a few a game late in the shot clock, but other than that everybody is taking shots they want to. And I've seen jenifer take his fair share of shots late in the shot clock, honestly probably second to only Cumberland. Not really sure what you're arguing here.

just that you can't compare ORTG's of guys with 15% usage rates and 20+. the more you shoot the tougher it is. and if you only shoot 3's and shoot that high of a %, your ORTG is gonna be through the roof.



its not the same for guys that have to create their own shot and beat defenders to get their shots up. kenpom speaks specifically about this, catch and shoot guys are going to have artificially high ORTGs.

 

[TheRealUC]

Can we add Mick to this list already?

 

[david aka the TYZ]

just that you can't compare ORTG's of guys with 15% usage rates and 20+. the more you shoot the tougher it is. and if you only shoot 3's and shoot that high of a %, your ORTG is gonna be through the roof.



its not the same for guys that have to create their own shot and beat defenders to get their shots up. kenpom speaks specifically about this, catch and shoot guys are going to have artificially high ORTGs.

That makes sense. The way you worded it before I wasnt following. TBH I'm not as big on some of the advanced metrics. I'm a big baseball guy and theres a growing trend towards sabermetrics. While some stats are useful some just seem like they're reaching. Same here with some of the stats. A lot more goes into how effective a player is or isn't than stats can calculate.

 

[Jon Rycek]

I wouldn’t call 15.8 super low usage, obviously not our primary guy, but that a little below the average secondary player. I’d say he is pretty damn good for us on offense.

 

[waterhead]

The point of the whole Jenifer ORTG is just to show how he is handling his part however small it is. As I mentioned there are a lot of players in the country and there is only 1 ahead of him with a higher usage. There have also been a lot of Bearcats over that span who have had a low usage...but nobody else has achieved the ORTG that Jenifer has. I think that was a 12 year span that I checked.

There is little doubt his numbers would decline with a higher usage but that wasn't really the point. Bottom line he has performed exceptionally well at his usage rate so far.

I also don't conclude that his ORTG means he would rank in importance anywhere near guys like SK, Cumberland, Clark, Evans, VAughn, Caupain, Wright, Gates, etc. He is simply playing his role very well even if we were hoping he could create a little more. If he had to (at his size) I don't think it would go all that well. Quite frankly I really don't want him doing much more than he is (in terms of scoring) other than getting more good looks for other players.

 

[waterhead]

As we get into these last 9 games we are going to face Houston twice and UCF twice. I would expect Jenifer to have some troubles with the better defenses and his numbers to slip. I just hope he can still make 1 of 3 three point shots and get some assists from here on out.

On the flip side I would expect Cumberland or Williams not to slip as much. I believe we are going to need to see an uptick from Broome as well. I think those guys have done a pretty good job in the past in bigger games and they will be able to create shots against better defenders. I would like Jenifer to get the ball up the court and facilitate the start of the offense and then hang out at the 3 line.

 

[ervins84]

I wouldn’t call 15.8 super low usage, obviously not our primary guy, but that a little below the average secondary player. I’d say he is pretty damn good for us on offense.

Kpoms own classification

28+ go to guy
Cumberland is 30.4

Major contributor 24-28
We have none


20-24 significant contributor
Keith Williams 21.6
Cane Broome 23.4


Role player 16-20
Logan Johnson 18.8
Brooks 18.8
Scott 17.1


Limited roles 12-16
Jenifer 15.8
Moore 12.3
Fredericks 15.7

Nearly invisible <12
Eliel 10.4

 

[Jon Rycek]

Kpoms own classification

28+ go to guy
Cumberland is 30.4

Major contributor 24-28
We have none


20-24 significant contributor
Keith Williams 21.6
Cane Broome 23.4


Role player 16-20
Logan Johnson 18.8
Brooks 18.8
Scott 17.1


Limited roles 12-16
Jenifer 15.8
Moore 12.3
Fredericks 15.7

Nearly invisible <12
Eliel 10.4

So a little lower than I thought, but just below a role player and having that high of an offensive rating is still good

 

[mdchick]

Kpoms own classification

28+ go to guy
Cumberland is 30.4

Major contributor 24-28
We have none


20-24 significant contributor
Keith Williams 21.6
Cane Broome 23.4


Role player 16-20
Logan Johnson 18.8
Brooks 18.8
Scott 17.1


Limited roles 12-16
Jenifer 15.8
Moore 12.3
Fredericks 15.7

Nearly invisible <12
Eliel 10.4

This is one of those things I look at and say pff to, rashawn fredericks and Justin jenifer have way different roles on this team

 

[ervins84]

This is one of those things I look at and say pff to, rashawn fredericks and Justin jenifer have way different roles on this team

That's not what that means at all.

It means in the minutes they are actually in the game, Jenifer ends a possession as often as Fredericks.

Of course Jenifer has a way different role. One is a pg, the other a hybrid 3/4 and one has played waaaay more minutes than the other and been a lot more productive.

The above was not a measure of how productive they were with their possessions, just how many possessions they actually used when on the court.

 

[waterhead]

Kpoms own classification

28+ go to guy
Cumberland is 30.4

Major contributor 24-28
We have none


20-24 significant contributor
Keith Williams 21.6
Cane Broome 23.4


Role player 16-20
Logan Johnson 18.8
Brooks 18.8
Scott 17.1


Limited roles 12-16
Jenifer 15.8
Moore 12.3
Fredericks 15.7

Nearly invisible <12
Eliel 10.4

Obviously this needs to account for minutes played. Jenifer played 34 minutes last night and Broome had 8. I don't care what your usage is at that point...you can't call Jenifer limited role and Broome significant contributor last night.

Quadri's usage was 24.3 two years ago.

 

[sedziobs]

Torvik has a metric called PRPG, which is basically offensive efficiency adjusted for usage rate.

4.5 Cumberland
4.0 Jenifer
2.8 Scott
2.4 Brooks
2.4 Williams
1.8 Broome
0.7 Moore
0.6 Diarra
0.5 Johnson
0.5 Fredericks

This is a more useful tool for evaluating players' overall offensive contributions to the team. Usage rate is a useful tool for determining who is trying to create and force the issue.

 

[cincrulz11]

Obviously this needs to account for minutes played. Jenifer played 34 minutes last night and Broome had 8. I don't care what your usage is at that point...you can't call Jenifer limited role and Broome significant contributor last night.

Quadri's usage was 24.3 two years ago.

i think people are getting caught up in thinking saying a guy having a lower usage is somehow talking down on the player.


i think ervins and i are just pointing out how ORTG works. just cause you have a high usage rate doesn't mean you're any good, it could mean you're terrible but selfish so you shoot a lot and turn it over a lot.



without running through all the years im guessing Jermaine Sanders in 2014 had one of the highest, if not the highest ORTG for any SF in the cronin era. i dont think anybody would ever consider him a great offensive player.


ORTG just isn't a stat you can compare when usage rates are in different ranges. It wasn't set up to work like that.

 

[sedziobs]

That makes sense. TBH I'm not as big on some of the advanced metrics. I'm a big baseball guy and theres a growing trend towards sabermetrics. While some stats are useful some just seem like they're reaching. Same here with some of the stats. A lot more goes into how effective a player is or isn't than stats can calculate.

I get this, but I think a lot of the "reaching" is due to a misinterpretation of a stat. In baseball, almost no stat gives a true player value, although WAR is an attempt. The drawback of WAR is that defense is highly uncertain. wRC+ is probably the closest we have to a true value that is predictive, though only useful for hitting.

Advanced stats can tell you about a player's individual skill set and how to build a roster and develop strategy based on that. They can't really give you concrete conclusions about how much better one player is than another. Same is true in basketball, where ORtg and Usage tell you certain things about a player, but not necessarily how valuable they really are at winning games.

 

[Jon Rycek]

And so you’re bringing up usage to compare why is ORTG is so high, but wouldn’t his usage as be lower because of how little he turns it over? He’s a primary ball handler when he is on the court, just cause he doesn’t shoot a lot or turn it over doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the ball in his hands a lot

 

[waterhead]

Torvik has a metric called PRPG, which is basically offensive efficiency adjusted for usage rate.

4.5 Cumberland
4.0 Jenifer
2.8 Scott
2.4 Brooks
2.4 Williams
1.8 Broome
0.7 Moore
0.6 Diarra
0.5 Johnson
0.5 Fredericks

This is a more useful tool for evaluating players' overall offensive contributions to the team. Usage rate is a useful tool for determining who is trying to create and force the issue.

I agree. I was going to mention this one too. It's a "points over replacement player" algorithm. And his PORPAGATU adjusts for minutes played. Which is why Scott is probably above Brooks here.

The link to explain how he gets there is interesting

https://www.bigtengeeks.com/new-stat-porpagatu/

 

[waterhead]

i think people are getting caught up in thinking saying a guy having a lower usage is somehow talking down on the player.


i think ervins and i are just pointing out how ORTG works. just cause you have a high usage rate doesn't mean you're any good, it could mean you're terrible but selfish so you shoot a lot and turn it over a lot.



without running through all the years im guessing Jermaine Sanders in 2014 had one of the highest, if not the highest ORTG for any SF in the cronin era. i dont think anybody would ever consider him a great offensive player.


ORTG just isn't a stat you can compare when usage rates are in different ranges. It wasn't set up to work like that.

I think it's probably just how KenPom uses the verbage to describe each usage level...lol. Quadri was not a "major contributor" even if he shot a lot.

I understand the concept. As Sedziobs mentioned there are other algorithms that do a better job of figuring out the overall value of a player without placing too much emphasis on ORTG or usage etc

 

[waterhead]

Revisiting Jarron. He started the season in OOC averaging 16 ppg. He's now at 19.3 ppg. His conference avg is 22.6.

Over his last 8 games he is averaging 24.5.

He has been trending up for quite some time and with the added focus on him from every team to figure out some way...ANY WAY...to stop him may be more impressive than just his totals alone. He's been nothing short of unbelievable all else considered.

It seems as though Brooks, Williams, and Jenifer although their improvement has been impressive have reached somewhat of a peak while Cumberland continues to seemingly show even a higher gear. He's knocking down 3's with a defender in his pocket and another defender nearby waiting on the pump fake. He's distributing and rebounding at a high clip.

If they only considered conference play he would be making a strong claim for first team All American status. 22.6 ppg, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists. Compare that to SK All American senior year of 20.6 ppg, 4.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists. Even with OOC in the stats Cumberland is at 19.3 ppg, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. Those are comparable given the extra assist makes up for the point differential. And it seems he is likely to keep those numbers on the up trend.

I am not sure he is getting the credit he really deserves. We almost just take it for granted now what he is doing is somehow expected. It shouldn't be expected. Not with the amount of attention he gets from the opposing team. We should expect at least some level of egg laying here or there. It's just been an incredible run of basketball!!

 

[GarradJ21]

Revisiting Jarron. He started the season in OOC averaging 16 ppg. He's now at 19.3 ppg. His conference avg is 22.6.

Over his last 8 games he is averaging 24.5.

He has been trending up for quite some time and with the added focus on him from every team to figure out some way...ANY WAY...to stop him may be more impressive than just his totals alone. He's been nothing short of unbelievable all else considered.

It seems as though Brooks, Williams, and Jenifer although their improvement has been impressive have reached somewhat of a peak while Cumberland continues to seemingly show even a higher gear. He's knocking down 3's with a defender in his pocket and another defender nearby waiting on the pump fake. He's distributing and rebounding at a high clip.

If they only considered conference play he would be making a strong claim for first team All American status. 22.6 ppg, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists. Compare that to SK All American senior year of 20.6 ppg, 4.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists. Even with OOC in the stats Cumberland is at 19.3 ppg, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. Those are comparable given the extra assist makes up for the point differential. And it seems he is likely to keep those numbers on the up trend.

I am not sure he is getting the credit he really deserves. We almost just take it for granted now what he is doing is somehow expected. It shouldn't be expected. Not with the amount of attention he gets from the opposing team. We should expect at least some level of egg laying here or there. It's just been an incredible run of basketball!!

Couldn't agree with this more. We all hoped Cumberland would be the Alpha but to hope and assume is one thing, to see actual results is another. He is truly going above and beyond this season.

I agree that some of these guys have leveled off. You see some flashes from the three role players you mention and others on the team but nothing compared to Cumberland. Williams quietly had a nice game on Sunday. Quietly besides his dunk LOL. Would love to see him knock down a few threes during this last stretch of games.

The one that is really stepping up and is playing more like we all thought he would be/hitting more shots is Cane. We need him to keep performing. His 3 point % is slowly climbing. I think it's too late to really fix his 3 pt percentage but hopefully he will get to 30% or so. I just hope he continues to score and give us the spark we need off the bench.